Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 012044
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
244 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH ACTIVE SWRLY FLOW MOVING INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. A
SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES ACROSS PUSHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO
THE DAKOTAS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP SRLY FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS EAST OF A SURFACE LOW DRIFTING ACROSS SE MT/NE WY. TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLIER ACROSS THE NE FTHLS ENHANCED BY AN UPPER WAVE
PUSHING THROUGH IS NOW DISSIPATING OVER SRN MEADE CNTY.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTRL WY INTO NW SD THIS
AFTN AND EVNG AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WHICH IS NOW CROSSING CNTRL WY.
PLENTY OF CAPE ACROSS THE CWA ATTM...WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING
2500 TO 3000 J/KG. SHEAR HOWEVER ISNT AS IMPRESSIVE...EXCEPT WHERE A
BIT STRONGER OVER NE WY INTO NW SD WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WRN SD PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH A FEW STORMS
POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE...THEN EXITING THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NW CWA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...EXCEPT MID
TO UPPER 70S OVER NW SD AND NE WY. BEST INSTABILITY WILL THUS BE
ACROSS THE SD PLAINS EAST OF THE BLKHLS. MLCAPE WILL REACH THE 2500
TO 3500 J/KG WITH THE HIGHER INSTABILITY OVER CNTRL SD. INSTABILITY
IS STILL EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE BLKHLS
AREA...BUT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE BLKHLS. HAIL
AND WIND WILL AGAIN BE MAIN THREATS. STORMS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
UPPER TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

TSRA THIS AFTN/EVNG ACRS NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS
AREA...WITH MVFR/LCL IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PCPN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7


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