Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 020523
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1123 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH WYOMING...CONTINUING TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS CAUSING SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN NW SOUTH DAKOTA.

LIGHT SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SD
TONIGHT...AND CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT...AND
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

A FAST-MOVING CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE MAV
REACHES WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS NORTHWEST SD...BUT AS USUAL IT
IS STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES OF 7-8
MB/3HR SLIDE WEST OF THE USUAL WINDY AREAS AND INCREASE AFTER
SUNSET...SO AT THIS POINT A WIND ADVISORY SEEMS MARGINAL. HOWEVER
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE FRONT...30-40KT 850MB
WINDS...AND IF MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...LATER SHIFTS MAY
DECIDE TO ISSUE ONE.

ALSO FOLLOWING THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD. THESE WILL BE AIDED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. AS
TEMPS COOL THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT. MID 50S ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST
SD...WITH MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS...NORTHEAST WY...AND
NORTHWEST SD...TO THE MID 30S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHERE TEMPS HAVE NOT
DIPPED THAT LOW YET THIS SEASON.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED AS THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT PERSISTENT. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
AREA WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FRIDAY...BUT THEN WARMER AIR
ADVECTS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE OVER THE RIDGE...WHICH
WILL BRING BREEZY DAYS TO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY
WILL BE THE WINDIEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH THE SHOWERS.
VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...7






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