Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 190951
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
351 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 316 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WITH DEEP TROF DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES HANGING
ON ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH
LEE TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM ARE IN THE 50S AND 60S.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH MOSTLY 80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE WESTERN TROF AND
CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RESULT...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY
LOW. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM WITH
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ONCE
AGAIN...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. STORMS WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA BY MID EVENING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 316 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH THE WRN CONUS
IN THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD...THEN INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM ON THURSDAY...BUT THEN
COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BY THE WEEKEND AS THE TROF MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 316 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN OVER NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS...THEN
SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF WRN SD TONIGHT. IFR VSBYS EXPECTED
IN HEAVIER STORMS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON






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