Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 231718
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1118 AM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Strong cold front currently moving through western SD has pushed
through the Philip area, and on track to be easily through south
central SD by 3pm. Inherited forecast had some isolated thunder
over Tripp Co. this afternoon, but latest guidance and faster cold
front will keep precip further east. Have removed precip chances
for today. Additionally, have massaged high temps across the SD
plains down a few degrees with the faster moving front - with the
exception of Winner - which should climb to near 90 degrees before
the front arrives. Northwest winds will remain breezy across the
SD plains through early evening, with gusts to 40 mph possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 252 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Southwest flow is setting up over the northern plains as upper
trough pushes into the central states, with low pressure spinning
over AB/SK. Satellite shows scattered clouds over the region.
Surface trough is pushing through the Dakotas, with a cold front
beginning to move into the CWA. Southwest winds are breezy over
south central SD, keep temperatures there in the 70s early this
morning. Temperatures are mainly in the 60s for the rest of the
area where winds are lighter.

Strong CAA and pressure rises of 3-5 mb/3hr will accompany the cold
front as it crosses the area this morning. Strongest winds of 20-30
mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be just east of the Black Hills,
and so a Wind Advisory has been issued for those areas this morning.
Winds will decrease but still remain breezy across the western SD
plains this afternoon. Conditions will be dry and stable behind the
front, with mostly sunny skies expected. Some instability over south
central SD may allow for some showers/storms there this afternoon,
but most of the activity will be east of the CWA. Highs today will
range from the upper 70s across northeastern WY and the Black Hills
to the lower 90s across south central SD.

Cold air will continue to push into the area as trough slowly moves
across the region. Highs will range from the mid 60s across the
northwestern CWA to the lower 80s across south central SD. Tight
pressure gradient will keep winds breezy across northwestern SD.
Some weak instability over the Hills may allow for a few afternoon
showers/storms, and then a weak upper wave may result in some
showers across northeastern WY and the Black Hills area after
midnight. Lows will be in the 40s, with some 30s in the Hills.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Through Monday)
Issued at 252 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

An upper level trough combined with a couple of weak disturbances
will bring cooler weather for Thursday and Friday. Westerly upper
flow will limit moisture availability, thus not much in the way of
QPF is expected. Current forecasted amounts are less than a
quarter of an inch across the forecast area.

Upper ridge begins to rebuild over the weekend, resulting in a
warming trend. Expect temperatures to once again rebound to readings
above normal by Sunday and the beginning of the upcoming week.
Precipitation chances during this time will be minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued At 1117 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Behind a cold
front, gusty northwest winds will continue through this afternoon
and then diminish this evening. Areas of smoke will be present,
but visibility restrictions are not expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 252 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

A cold front will slide through the area today with gusty
northwest winds on the SD plains most of the day. Drier air will
move into the region, and with highs in the 80s and dew points in
the 30s, minimum RH values will be near 15%. Will issue Red Flag
Warning for much of western SD plains this afternoon. Considered
also issuing for parts of northeastern WY, but breezy winds there
should diminish by the time RH reaches 15% in the afternoon.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for SDZ261-264>266.

     Wind Advisory until noon MDT today for SDZ026-030-031-072-073.

WY...None.
&&

$$

Update...15
SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...Helgeson
FIRE WEATHER...Pojorlie



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