Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 202136
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
236 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE REGION
AHEAD OF A COMPACT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL FORCE A WEAK SFC TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
WEAK CAA ENSUING IN IT/S WAKE. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL IN THE
PERIOD WITH NEARLY ALL LSA REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FA. MILD
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW.

AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW AND INSOLATION WORKING IN TANDEM. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER...INCREASING
CIRRUS AND MID CLOUD CAN BE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL LIMIT T FALLS TO AN
EXTENT. PRESSURE FALLS WITH WAA FLOW WILL SUPPORT MILD CONDITIONS ON
THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE BLACK HILLS.

MID CLOUD AND CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY WITH LL
WESTERLY FLOW AND WARM LL THERMAL FIELDS SUPPORTING A FAIRLY MILD DAY
MOST PLACES WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY COOLER LL THERMAL FIELDS.
SUSTAINED WESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD HELP LIMIT TEMPS FALLS
AWAY FROM VALLEYS...ESP IN THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE BLACK
HILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPS COLD AND MOIST
AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW BEGIN LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA.
RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN. BEST PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND
THE BLACK HILLS AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EAST...WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STRONG ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ON MONDAY AS STRONG PRESSURE RISES MOVE
THROUGH. ON WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN SWINGING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...BRINGING IN ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE IN CREEK/RIVER VALLEYS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15





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