Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 210454
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1054 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE
NRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...TROF EXTENDS THROUGH ERN ND/CNTRL SD.
SKIES REMAIN SUNNY AREA WIDE DESPITE SOME PERSISTENT SMOKE ALOFT.

ANOTHER MILD AND DRY NIGHT IN STORE WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD.
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SLIGHTLY AS WEAK UPPER TROF WORKS THROUGH
THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WITH SFC LOW TRACKING
THROUGH WRN SD BEFORE DEEPENING OVER SCNTRL SD. CAP SHOULD WEAKEN
ACROSS THE CWFA AS TEMPS SOARS ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTN...WITH
ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE AND UPPER ENERGY FOR SOME
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN SD. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS POINT
TOWARDS SOME SVR THREAT ACROSS NWRN SD...BUT THE BEST OVERALL SVR
PARAMETERS SHOULD BY AND LARGE BE EAST OF THE CWFA.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK...WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA FLATTENING THE RIDGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS TOPPING THE RIDGE WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY...
WITH THE BEST CHANCES COMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...BUT WITH A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
HAZE FROM THE WRN US WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO 5-6 MILES OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SFC TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...SUPPORTING SCT-ISOLD SHRA/TS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESP NW SD. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER CELLS. WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH.
SOME GUSTY TS OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...JC






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