Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 071618
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1018 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXITING SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH INITIAL SHORTWAVE. SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER/RAIN
COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER AND ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT...HAVE LOWERED
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

LATEST ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN A REGION OF MODERATE THETA-E
ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO DELINEATE A LOCALIZED AREA OF BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT TODAY BUT GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTING
ELEVATED CAPE HAVE ADDED CHANCE POPS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER NUMBERS OVER SCENTRAL SD WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE FOUND DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED ASCENT WILL TREND SOUTH
TODAY...WITH SHRA/TS CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE FA. HAVE
KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP LL LAPSE RATES...WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY INT THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK...WITH RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND WEST COAST
STATES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY
FLATTENS OUT. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH MORE STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13






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