Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 011738
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1138 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION...PUSHING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. INCREASED POPS OVER THAT AREA
TODAY. UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO MATCH SATELLITE. STILL LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND WITH UPPER LOW
SPINNING ON TOP...WITH SYSTEM MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST PER SATELLITE
LOOPS. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF INTEREST OVER WESTERN MT/ID PER
WATER VAPOR. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY ROUNDING BASE OF
MEAN TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC
FLOW AND WEAK FORCING WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A FEW
-SHRA OVER THE CWA TODAY...SHIFTING EAST/SOUTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE TODAY/TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL RACE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY 00Z FRIDAY DRIVING A SHARP COLD FRONT INTO THE
CWA. A FEW -SHRA MAY OCCUR WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN EFFECT
WILL BE RATHER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 30-40KT 850-700MB
WINDS. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS ON THE SD PLAINS TO ACCOUNT...AND MAY
NEED SOME SORT OF WIND HEADLINES WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. IT/LL BE
COLD ENOUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR A
FEW -SHRASN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...AND PROBABLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR FROST/FREEZE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH EXITS INTO THE MIDWEST. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED AS THE OVERALL
PROGRESS SLOWS TO A CRAWL. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FRIDAY...BUT THEN WARMER AIR
ADVECTS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS. OCCASIONAL
UPPER WAVES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL BRING
BREEZY DAYS TO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS FRIDAY AND
PERHAPS SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTIER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BLACK HILLS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...15






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