Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KUNR 291720
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1120 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SK...WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MT AND NORTHERN ID. A
SURFACE TROF EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST
WY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE AREA AND
EVENTUALLY WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

AS MIXING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
TROF THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...THE CONDITIONS WITH REGARD TO SMOKE SHOULD AT LEAST
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FOR NOW...WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND AREAS OF SMOKE INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEAST WY AND MOST OF WESTERN SD. WILL LOOK AT
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND SEE IF SOME AREAS NEED TO HAVE IT
EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER UPDATES MADE TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. SWRLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER AIR TODAY. SMOKE
ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR UP THIS MORNING AS THE FLOW
SWITCHES TO THE SW LEAVING SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S. BREEZY S/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS REACHING 15-20 MPH OVER NE WY. BREEZY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PAC NW
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SUNDAY. VERY WARM AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S TO JUST ABOVE 100. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS MT SUN AND PUSH INTO THE NRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
A SL CHC FOR STORMS LATE SUN THROUGH THE NIGHT. RELATIVELY DRY AIR
AND FAST MOVING BOUNDARY WILL KEEP QPF RELATIVELY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS
DEVELOPING THEN SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. EXTENDED MODELS ARE
IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT SHOWING PHASING OF THE NW PAC UPPER TROUGH
WITH A STRONG NORTHERN CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH LIKELY LEADING TOWARD
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. NW PAC
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER
WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH ISOLD MVFR VIS POSSIBLE IN SMOKE FROM
WESTERN WILDFIRES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS DROPPING TO BELOW 15%.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 OR
HIGHER. WILL ISSUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG. GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RH ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
FIRE WEATHER WATCH. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ259-297-298.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...13


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.