Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 251007
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
307 AM MST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow may linger across north central and northwest New Mexico
through mid day before skies clear. Temperatures will be well below
normal today, but a warm-up will be in store for Monday and Tuesday.
Breezy to windy conditions will also be possible Monday and Tuesday
with critical fire weather conditions possible across the plains
each afternoon. Another storm system will impact the state on
Wednesday. This system will bring chances for light snow
accumulations across central and western New Mexico, perhaps some
blowing snow, and a sharp drop in temperatures. Temperatures will
again rebound quickly for the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak trough is moving across northern NM early this morning and
light snow remains possible from NW NM across the northern mountains
through approximately 18Z before tapering off. Colder air will again
filter in behind the trough, keeping high temperatures quite cool
across central and western NM. Most areas will be 10 to 20 degrees
below normal. The east will stay a bit warmer, thanks to westerly
winds once again.

Southwest flow aloft will return on Monday. Good mixing and a
strengthening lee side surface low will result in windy conditions
mainly across northeast NM but breezy conditions will be likely
elsewhere. Warm air advection will be in full force and high
temperatures will be 5 to 20 degrees warmer than today. Tuesday will
remain windy and warm prior to the next storm system impacting the
state.

The next system will be an upper low moving across SoCal, slowly
weakening as it crosses AZ, and shifting eastward across NM on
Wednesday as either a weakly closed low or a sharp trough.
Precipitation should start late Tuesday night or perhaps toward
sunrise Wednesday across far western NM. Precip will expand eastward
to the central mountain chain by mid day, but will struggle to make
it east of there due to strong downsloping. Though most of the precip
will fall as snow, currently not expecting any big amounts since the
system is so fast moving. The bigger issue may be blowing snow,
depending on the exact track of the system.

West to southwest flow aloft will finish out the end of the week and
temperatures will quickly rebound. Friday`s high temperatures will be
near to above normal area wide. The following system still looks like
it will remain north of NM, but may bring us more strong winds.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
MONDAY...

Another disturbance passing over northern New Mexico will produce
another round of brisk west to northwest winds again today, although
not as strong as on Saturday. With 10 to 15 percent minimum
humidities, 3 to 4 hours of critical fire weather conditions are
possible over the East Central Plains this afternoon. Otherwise,
small snow accumulations of 1-2 inches are possible over the
northwest and north central higher terrain this morning before the
disturbance quickly exits New Mexico.

Dry and warmer both Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures will be
within a few degrees of average, except for the eastern plains on
Tuesday where highs will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Southwest
winds increase on Monday, and will be combined with decreasing
humidities overall. Afternoon humidities over the eastern plains
range from the single digits to around 13 percent. Combined with
moderate to high Haines, the fire weather watch for Monday will
continue, although critical conditions remain focused over the
Northeast Plains.

Forecast models are trending the next weather system a bit farther
south Tuesday, therefore winds may not be quite as strong as
forecast on Monday. However, there is potential for a few hours of
critical conditions Tuesday afternoon from the Central and Northeast
Highlands to the Northeast Plains.

Wednesday will be cooler overall, and windy along and south of
Interstate 40 as the upper low/trough pass over the state. The west
and central will see the best chances for wetting precipitation with
some accumulating snow, but snow amounts aren`t expected to be
significant, ranging from 1 to 4 inches or so.

Zonal flow Thursday and Friday will allow for warmer temperatures,
as highs reach above average warmth again Friday. Winds look to be
stronger on Friday with potential for critical fire weather
conditions returning to the eastern plains.

Good to excellent vent rates for most locales dominate through this
week, with the best rates overall Wednesday, and somewhat diminished
rates Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
An upper level trough will reach the Four Corners during the late
night hours, then pass eastward along the CO/NM border on Sunday.
The system will steer strong W winds aloft over the area with gusty
winds at times at AXX and SRR overnight. A gusty Pacific cold front
will then cross from the NW on Sunday with strong winds lingering
until around mid day along the east slopes of the central and S
central mountains. Along and W of the northern mountains tonight into
Sunday morning, the storm system should produce areas of MVFR
conditions and localized IFR conditions with periods of light snow
and mountain obscurations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  40  14  53  22 /  20   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  35   2  44  14 /  30   0   0   0
Cuba............................  32  10  43  19 /  30   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  39   7  55  14 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  35   4  52  13 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  40   5  56  15 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  39  11  53  21 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  53  24  60  28 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  31  -1  40  12 /  60   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  37  19  46  27 /   5   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  36  16  48  23 /   5   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  31   9  42  19 /  20   0   0   0
Red River.......................  25   4  37  16 /  30   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  30   0  43  14 /  20   0   0   0
Taos............................  36   5  47  17 /  10   0   0   0
Mora............................  36  13  50  21 /   5   0   0   0
Espanola........................  42  15  51  25 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  37  17  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  41  15  51  23 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  43  21  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  46  22  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  47  18  57  27 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  45  20  55  28 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  49  16  58  25 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  45  21  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  51  23  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  37  17  50  24 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  40  18  51  25 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  42   6  54  17 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  39  17  50  24 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  43  21  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  47  25  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  42  24  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  39  12  54  23 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  43   9  58  20 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  45  11  60  22 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  41  13  55  22 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  49  21  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  44  18  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  53  20  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  50  21  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  55  19  65  33 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  54  23  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  55  22  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  53  21  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  60  23  65  33 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  53  24  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  51  24  58  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
the following zones... NMZ103-104-108.

&&

$$

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