Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 211719 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1019 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT
24HRS...ALTHOUGH WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF VFR CIGS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...328 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE BIG
WEATHER STORY CONTINUES TO BE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 MPH WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
CONSIDERABLY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SOME TUESDAY AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DIVING SE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND END UP WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWA BY TONIGHT. WITH SUCH LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...AND THE SYSTEM TRENDING EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...HAVE DECIDED
TO SCALE BACK OR EVEN REMOVE SOME OF THE LOW POPS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL INCREASE...WITH BKN-OVC SKIES BY MID
DAY GIVEN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER AZ.

MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.  700 MB WINDS WILL START TO CRANK UP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. 700 MB WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT TO APPROX 60KTS. MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY
SEEMS VERY LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD THE WAVES CRASH TO THE
SURFACE...SOME VERY STRONG GUSTS MAY BE IN THE OFFING. AS SOON AS
MIXING OCCURS SUNDAY MORNING...THE STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
TO THE TEXAS BORDER ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. 700 MB WINDS AROUND
50KTS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND DESPITE MUCH COOLER
TEMPS AS THE SHORTWAVE CLIPS NM...MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD BE AOA THAT
HEIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE
INTO THE AREA...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND PRECIP CHANCES UPWARD
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE THAT COMES THROUGH ON MONDAY LOOKS TO SHIFT THE
STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS FURTHER WEST AS ANOTHER BACK DOOR PUSH
MOVES INTO THE NE.  WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG ON MONDAY...BUT
STILL BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WEST.  PRECIP CHANCES ALSO DO NOT
LOOK AS GOOD FOR THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT.

THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A DRY PATTERN WILL
FOLLOW. THE ECMWF NO LONGER SHOWS A BIG STORM SYSTEM AT THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND RATHER HAS A RIDGE...AT LEAST UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. THE
GFS DOES NOT HAVE AS PRONOUNCED OF A RIDGE AS IT DID LAST
NIGHT...BUT MORE OF A DRY WNW FLOW. BY FRIDAY...THE GFS SHOWS
ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT...BUT THE EC DOES NOT.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...

MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE STORM OVER CA SOUTH OF NM WITH LITTLE
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER ROOSEVELT
AND SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL...A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTH AND EAST. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE 20S AND 30S FRIDAY ...HIGHER THAN ON THURSDAY. THE VENT RATES
WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY IN THE POOR TO FAIR RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH AND EAST. RH RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TX SATURDAY AWAY FROM
NM. OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS QUICKLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CRANK UP AREAWIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...RESULTING IN GOOD
TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION FOR MOST AREAS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
EASILY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER THE
HIGHER CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN PEAKS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD
ONTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RH VALUES. HIGHS WILL BE
UP TO 20 DEGREES LOWER IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES
RISE INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 40. THIS WILL MEAN NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR AREAS NORTH OF I
40.

A WEAKER...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP THROUGH THE STATE ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SOME MODERATE WINDS GOING WHILE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN...NOW 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. VENT
RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE. A FEW LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS MAY FALL OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILDER AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
VENT RATES WILL TAKE A HIT WITH FAIR TO POOR RATES OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTH AND WEST BOTH DAYS.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR
THANKSGIVING. A BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD REACH THE EAST AS WELL.
OVERALL IT WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL WEST AND BELOW
NORMAL EAST. A FEW RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
BLACK FRIDAY WILL BE DRY BUT CHILLY. CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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