Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211704
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1104 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Quite the active Pacific jet entering the Desert Southwest!
Widespread rain (and higher elevation snow) extended from western
New Mexico through Arizona and across California...spilling into the
Great Basin region. The exit region of this jet will advance on the
Southern Rockies today with a strong lower-mid tropospheric response
with a low forming across the northwestern Texas Panhandle. 700mb
frontogenesis will strengthen across far southwest Kansas by
afternoon with a deformation zone becoming defined fairly nicely by
late this evening immediately north of the 700mb low center. This
should extend across a good portion of southwest Kansas, and have
continued the likely POPs between Arkansas River and the Oklahoma
border as a result. The upper level low will be fairly progressive,
so this will be a rather light precipitation event for most, on the
order of a tenth to perhaps two tenths of an inch through early
Sunday morning. Thermal profiles continue to support an all rain
event with 850mb temperatures +2 to +4C across southwest Kansas.
Freezing level heights supporting snow (AOB 1200ft AGL) will try to
push east toward a Lakin to Hugoton line overnight, but odds are it
will remain too warm in the lower troposphere for any snowflakes to
reach the surface. Nevertheless, will carry some rain/snow mix in
the grids in the far west but no snow accumulation.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 235 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

The next storm system along the active Pacific wavetrain to impact
the Great Plains is Tuesday and Tuesday Night. All indications from
the global spectral models are that this system will develop and
mature to the north of the southwest Kansas region, thus keeping
best precipitation well off to the north into Nebraska. Ahead of
this on Monday, we could see a brief, but formidable warm-up in
temperatures across the far southwest counties (around Elkhart in
particular)...with afternoon temperatures touching the mid 60s. It
is still fairly unclear how far northeast this warmth will extend,
though, so the rest of our area (northeast of a Syracuse-
Coldwater line) is forecast 50s for highs.

There was buy-in among a number of Central Plains WFOs to increase
winds over the Superblend starting point -- using CONSMOS or at
least a blend comprising a significant portion of this guidance
since it offers the strongest winds. There is a fairly high degree
of confidence in strong winds behind the storm, with a period of 24
to 26 knots sustained appearing quite likely. This could lead to
some light damage of remaining weakened trees and/or utility
poles/lines by our recent major ice storm. We will continue with
some slight chance POPs along I-70, but any slight shift in the
storm track to the south would bring more areas of western Kansas
into at least light precipitation chances behind the mid-week storm.
We should stay in a cool northwest flow pattern through the end of
the week with highs mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s (lows in
the lower 20s for most).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 934 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

The main weather story will be the reduced ceilings and the
possibility of rain showers with a snowflake mixed in for GKC and
DDC from 0Z to 12Z. MVFR conditions for GCK and DDC look to occur
around 02-03Z to around 09Z. After 09Z to 18Z the ceilings should
start to rise and the rain shower threat will be done. Wind speeds
in the order of 12-18 kts with gusts up to 28 kts from 340 will
be the case especially from 06Z on at GCK and 09Z on at DDC and
HYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  33  52  27 /  30  50   0   0
GCK  50  28  51  25 /  20  30   0   0
EHA  52  28  51  28 /  40  50   0   0
LBL  56  31  52  27 /  50  60   0   0
HYS  51  31  50  25 /   0  10   0   0
P28  56  38  54  27 /  20  60   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Tatro



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