Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 272303

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
603 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Low level moisture was starting to make a return back north
through Oklahoma. This rather rich surface moisture will likely
manifest into areas of fog, but mainly over central and eastern
Kansas. None of the latest short term NWP suggests the best
moisture will make it back this far west given surface
trajectories having a slight west component through the night. As
a result, we will keep mention of fog out of the grids for our
south central KS counties.

On Friday, have collaborated a wind speed increase with my
neighbors over the SuperBlend init. We all went with CONSMOS
guidance, which gives a corridor of 19-21 knots sustained in the
18-22z time frame mainly from Liberal to Dodge City to LaCrosse
and points east. We also bumped up the highs about 2-3 degrees
over SuperBlend, which would give widespread highs in the upper
80s. This will result in some record highs for the date being

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

The trough axis will remain just north of the southwest KS region
through Saturday midday before a cold front finally pushes down
into western Kansas. Saturday now looks very warm over a larger
area with widespread mid to upper 80s in the forecast yet again.
In fact, the upper 80s will need to be expanded northward if the
timing of the new ECMWF is to be trusted. Sunday certainly looks
cooler, but still above average for the date with highs in the
lower to mid 70s. This will be followed by yet another breezy to
potentially windy day Monday with widespread mid 80s in the
forecast. A stronger cold front will push in behind this late
Monday Night. This front will stall out and potentially be a
player in mid to late next week weather as the global models
suggest a deep trough moving into the Desert Southwest region. If
this pans out with a boundary just to our south, we should see a
much better pattern for precipitation. It is way too early,
though, to determine if this is indeed a legitimate signal in the
global models to really chew on. Nevertheless, we will carry some
Chance POPs beginning Wednesday going into Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

The 18z Models indicated only some high level moisture will be
crossing western Kansas over the next 24 hours as an upper level
ridge axis slowly slides east into the Western High Plains. The
south southwesterly winds will fall back to less than 10 knots
around sunset. On Friday these south southwesterly winds will
increase back into the 15 to 20 knot range with the stronger winds
Friday afternoon being located in the Hays and Dodge City areas.


DDC  57  88  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  54  87  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  54  86  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  54  89  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  57  86  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
P28  57  85  62  86 /   0   0   0   0




SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.