Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 161126
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
426 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Areas of patchy fog may occur early this morning across
southwestern and southcentral New Mexico. The fog should lift by
10 AM this morning. Later today through Wednesday night there is a
chance for rain showers in the lowlands and snow showers in the
mountains. Rain and snow amounts should be light. Wednesday
through Friday morning conditions improve with warm temperatures
and dry air. Another system brings back unsettled weather by late
Friday and the weekend with a chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Early this morning, areas of patchy fog have been occurring
across our forecast area. This is a result of the abundant ground
moisture left behind by the widespread rain that happened
yesterday. Dew point depressions are very narrow with many places
reaching saturation such as the Sacramento Mountains, the Gila
Region and near Truth or Consequences. Patchy fog and low clouds
should lift by 10 AM this morning.

Today is the transition from the closed upper low that affected
us yesterday and the one that will make it to the Borderland
tonight. This new upper level shortwave trough is recycling the
lingering moisture from the first system. Movement of this system
can be seen from water vapor imagery early this morning and both
the GFS and Euro models present this scenario. However, system
dynamics and forcing are weaker with fewer showers expected. This
is limiting the chances for precipitation to the mountains and
adjacent areas where orographic lifting will serve as the main
driver for producing precipitation this evening.

On Tuesday the upper low becomes a closed low increasing the
chances for lowland rain showers and mountain snow showers. The
strength of this system is significantly weaker than the previous
one, which will lead to light amounts of precipitation area wide.
Snow amounts in the mountains will be in the one to three inch
range. A ridge will settle in the region on Wednesday as the
upper low moves to the northeast. Temperatures will rise to near
normal values as a slightly drier westerly flow dominates the
region. However, this wont last long as more active weather
approaches us next weekend.

The next Pacific system appears to cross the four corners region
on Friday with mountain showers and windy conditions area wide.
This system will be quickly followed by a stronger system on
Saturday. Plenty of the moisture accompanies this upper trough.
Rain chances will increase significantly. Strong winds will occur
Saturday, due to the system generating a surface trough east of
the area that will strengthen the winds in the Borderland.
Another upper low is right behind it, keeping rain, winds and snow
in the forecast. Therefore expect more unsettled weather through
mid next week.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid 15/12Z-16/12Z...
Early this morning expect areas of patchy fog except at KELP.
There will be some sct to nmrs 1-3SM -SHSN BKN010 in the Sacs
through the night. W to SW winds will be decreasing from
15-25G35KTS early this evening to AOB 12KTS by 09Z and continuing
through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Conditions will be improving over the coming  days as upper low
exits region.  There will be a secondary low developing over the
region, but will not bring much in the way of additional
precipitation.  Temperatures will be warming slowly back to near
normal by Tuesday. Winds will remain light through Thursday, but
another system will start approaching Friday which will increase the
winds and bring additional precipitation chances into the weekend.
Expect poor to fair vent rates through Wednesday, then improving
for the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 57  36  55  37 /   0   0  20  20
Sierra Blanca           55  33  52  35 /   0   0  20  20
Las Cruces              52  33  52  34 /   0  10  20  20
Alamogordo              50  34  51  35 /   0  10  20  20
Cloudcroft              36  24  36  27 /  10  20  20  30
Truth or Consequences   52  32  51  34 /   0  10  10  10
Silver City             45  29  48  31 /  10  20  30  10
Deming                  52  31  53  33 /   0   0  10  10
Lordsburg               50  31  54  34 /   0   0  10   0
West El Paso Metro      54  38  54  38 /   0   0  20  20
Dell City               57  30  53  35 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Hancock            57  34  56  36 /   0   0  20  20
Loma Linda              50  35  49  36 /   0   0  20  20
Fabens                  56  33  55  36 /   0  10  20  10
Santa Teresa            53  34  53  37 /   0   0  20  20
White Sands HQ          53  36  53  35 /   0  10  30  30
Jornada Range           53  31  52  33 /   0  10  20  30
Hatch                   53  33  52  33 /   0   0  10  20
Columbus                53  34  54  35 /   0   0  10  20
Orogrande               52  35  53  35 /   0  10  20  20
Mayhill                 47  28  44  29 /  10  30  20  30
Mescalero               43  27  43  29 /  10  30  20  30
Timberon                44  27  43  30 /   0  20  20  30
Winston                 46  23  45  29 /  30  40  30  20
Hillsboro               49  29  49  33 /  10  20  20  10
Spaceport               52  31  51  33 /   0   0  20  20
Lake Roberts            44  22  47  26 /  20  20  30  20
Hurley                  47  28  50  31 /  10  10  20  10
Cliff                   49  27  53  31 /  20  10  20  10
Mule Creek              46  26  52  31 /  20  10  30  20
Faywood                 49  29  50  32 /   0  10  10  10
Animas                  51  31  54  33 /   0   0  10   0
Hachita                 51  30  53  33 /   0   0  10   0
Antelope Wells          51  30  53  33 /   0   0  20  10
Cloverdale              48  32  52  34 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29-Crespo



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