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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 222001
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
201 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL FLOW INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS AND AS A RESULT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BRING WARM DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE BORDERLAND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE IS COMBINING WITH WESTERLY FLOW TO BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM DRY WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WESTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AN UNUSUALLY DEEP HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH FOR LATE MAY WAS LOCATED ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED CLOSED CIRCULATING OVER OREGON. THE UPPER
LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE WASHINGTON/OREGON VICINITY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHILE MEAN TROUGH REMAINS ALONG WEST COAST
REGION.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH DRY LINE SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH WIND SHIFT LINE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE WEST OF ITS AXIS. THUS GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT FROM EAST TO WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM LOW 40S TO LOW 50S FROM THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TO FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ACCORDINGLY CAPES WILL INCREASE FROM NEAR 500 J/KG TO 1500
J/KG DURING THIS TIME WITH PRECIPITABLE FROM .75 TO 1.2 INCHES.
THESE FACTORS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CWA
FROM THE RIO GRANDE EASTWARD WITH STRONGEST STORMS FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. INITIATION MECHANISMS SHOULD INCLUDE SURFACE
HEATING...DRY LINE CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLE WEAK SHORT WAVES
PASSING ALOFT. STORM THREAT SHOULD BE MAINLY EASTERN OTERO AND
HUDSPETH COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD
TO EL PASO AND WESTERN OTERO COUNTIES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEST
OF THE RIO GRANDE WARM AND DRY.

BY SUNDAY A SLIGHT EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE
FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA WITH DRY
LINE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST. THUS EXPECT WARM
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/00Z-24/00Z.
VFR CONDS THRU PD WITH SKC-SCT200-250. GENERALLY W TO SW WINDS
12-18G25KTS DURING DAY AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AND UNDER 10KTS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY LIGHTNING RISK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

A WARM PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AS A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETS UP OVER THE REGION. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR WEST
TEXAS AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL
SET THE REGION UP FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
EAST OF IT. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME DRY LIGHTNING NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE DRYLINE WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LESS. FURTHER EAST INTO
HUDSPETH COUNTY GENERALLY WET THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

THROUGH SATURDAY WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS...BUT STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK WINDS WILL PICK UP
AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS SEEING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ANYTIME BETWEEN SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  96  70  94  68 /   0  10  10  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA           62  94  66  91  63 /   0  10  20  20  20
LAS CRUCES              58  94  61  93  59 /   0   0   0  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              58  94  61  92  59 /   0  10  10  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              45  70  49  70  46 /   0  10  20  30  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   61  93  64  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             55  88  55  91  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  56  94  57  94  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               57  94  57  91  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      66  94  68  93  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
DELL CITY               57  94  60  93  57 /   0  10  20  30  30
FORT HANCOCK            64  95  68  96  66 /   0  10  10  20  20
LOMA LINDA              57  87  59  87  57 /   0  10  10  10  10
FABENS                  66  95  67  94  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
SANTA TERESA            60  96  63  93  62 /   0   0  10  10  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  93  69  91  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           49  95  52  91  52 /   0   0  10  10  10
HATCH                   59  91  61  89  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                61  95  62  93  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               57  97  61  94  59 /   0  10  10  10  10
MAYHILL                 53  81  57  79  54 /   0  10  20  30  30
MESCALERO               45  83  48  82  45 /   0  10  10  30  30
TIMBERON                44  81  49  80  46 /   0  10  10  30  30
WINSTON                 48  84  49  83  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               56  89  57  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               56  93  57  89  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
LAKE ROBERTS            49  85  49  84  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  59  88  58  88  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   51  93  52  93  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              42  90  42  90  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 58  89  57  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  57  94  59  92  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 56  93  56  93  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          60  94  60  93  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              55  89  55  89  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ