Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 230947
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
347 AM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A western U.S. storm system dropping over Utah has helped to draw
subtropical moisture into the region. For areas east of the Rio
Grande this means a stream of rain showers and thunderstorms
moving over El Paso, Hudspeth, and Otero counties today and
Saturday. Some of these storms will produce heavy rain with flash
flooding possible. Most of the areas to the west of the Rio Grande
will remain dry. Westerly winds will push the moisture back out of
the Borderland for dry and seasonal weather Sunday and Monday. A
cool push from the east arrives late Tuesday and strengthens
through the rest of the week. This will bring cooler weather with
a return for rain chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The moisture tap has occurred as a Pacific storm system continues
to slowly drop across the SW U.S. Winds backing to a more
southerly direction is drawing mid-level moisture back into the
region from the south. At lower levels moisture is moving back in
over the far eastern zones as weak surface troughing has
developed over the Rio Grande valley. PWs will rise back to 1+
inches over areas east of the Rio Grande, and upper level
dynamics will help to destabilize these areas. Already we are
seeing a stream of rain showers with embedded weak thunderstorms.
These should continue and continue to train over these eastern
zones. Models are suggesting potential for heavy rain with QPF
over an inch in locations over Otero and Hudspeth counties. Thus
we`re issuing a Flash Flood Watch from this morning through Sunday
morning for the potential for flooding over these areas (it also
includes eastern El Paso county).

Sunday and Monday the upper trough/low to our west spits out the
first major lobe of energy and allows a complete shift to westerly
flow over the CWFA. This should sweep our eastern moisture back
to the east and out of our area. Thus we trim back POPs and keep
nearly all of the forecast area dry. Temperatures will stay
seasonal, winds should be down a bit over much of the area. Most
of Tuesday appears to show the same conditions.

Wednesday the same upper trough Still lingers to our west, but the
main low lifts away to be quickly replaced by a more southern low
center over AZ. This helps to draw in a surface cool front from
the east and shift upper winds towards the south. With new air
from the east comes the return of moisture with PWs back above 1"
again. There appears to be plenty of ingredients in place for more
widespread showers and storms, with a spread of potential across
the entire CWFA. The initial east frontal push is weak, but it is
a persistent feature which is reinforced by much stronger pushes
THU and FRI. This surface convergence coupled with the moisture
gains and upper air instability should result in healthy rain
chances across the region for the later half of the week into next
weekend. Potential for severe storms is there given the veering
vertical wind profile, if the surface cooling isn`t so much as to
limit instability.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 23/12Z-24/12Z...
Isolated thunderstorms will be a risk for areas near and east of
the Rio Grande today over parts of Otero and Hudspeth and El Paso
counties. VFR conditions west of the RIO. VCTS at ELP and LRU.
Winds SW-W 15-20kts west of Rio Grande...S 10-15kts east. Tempo
ISOL CIGs 050 and VSBY 1-3sm in vcty of TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A deepening upper level trough over the western U.S. is pulling
some enhanced mid-level moisture into areas near and east of the
Rio Grande today. This will result in an increase in showers and
thunderstorms through Saturday, but dry air will persist in SW
New Mexico. Temperatures will slowly drop to near normal by
Sunday. A backdoor cold front will bring cooler temperatures and
more widespread precipitation by Tuesday, mainly for areas east of
the Continental Divide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 89  65  85  62 /  40  30   0   0
Sierra Blanca           85  62  83  61 /  70  40   0   0
Las Cruces              84  56  82  54 /  30   0   0   0
Alamogordo              84  59  83  57 /  60  20   0   0
Cloudcroft              67  46  65  43 /  70  30   0   0
Truth or Consequences   83  55  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             77  50  74  50 /  10   0   0   0
Deming                  84  52  81  50 /  10   0   0   0
Lordsburg               81  50  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      87  65  84  62 /  30  20   0   0
Dell City               87  62  84  61 /  70  50   0  10
Fort Hancock            90  65  86  64 /  70  40   0   0
Loma Linda              85  63  82  60 /  60  30   0   0
Fabens                  90  65  86  63 /  60  30   0   0
Santa Teresa            87  62  84  58 /  30   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          85  60  83  57 /  30  10   0   0
Jornada Range           85  57  83  54 /  30   0   0   0
Hatch                   85  55  83  52 /  20   0   0   0
Columbus                86  55  83  52 /  20   0   0   0
Orogrande               85  63  83  59 /  50  20   0   0
Mayhill                 76  52  76  49 /  80  40   0  10
Mescalero               76  51  75  48 /  80  30   0   0
Timberon                75  51  74  49 /  70  30   0   0
Winston                 79  47  78  43 /  20   0   0   0
Hillsboro               83  51  80  49 /  10   0   0   0
Spaceport               84  55  82  52 /  20   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            77  44  76  41 /  20   0   0   0
Hurley                  80  50  77  50 /  10   0   0   0
Cliff                   78  44  76  43 /  10   0   0   0
Mule Creek              78  46  75  45 /  10   0   0   0
Faywood                 82  50  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                  82  49  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 84  50  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          84  50  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              80  50  78  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch from 10 AM MDT this morning through late
     tonight for NMZ414>417.

TX...Flash Flood Watch from 10 AM MDT this morning through late
     tonight for TXZ419>424.

&&

$$

14-Bird


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