Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 050932
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
332 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DRIFT OVER
NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER NORTHERN TEXAS FRIDAY.
THIS HIGH WILL HELP INHIBIT MOST OF OUR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTS FURTHER EAST
OVER EASTERN TEXAS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE RESULTANT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE SOME AND ALLOW A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO ALL AREAS OF THE
BORDERLAND. THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE LACK OF MANY CLOUDS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMALS. THE LOWLANDS WILL
REACH WELL ABOVE 100 DEGREES...LIKELY THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
SINCE MID JUNE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUING OVER THE CWA BUT LOOKING RATHER DIFFUSE
ON WV IMAGERY. IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER HIGH NOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PW`S AS LOW AS .75 INCHES
NORTHERN ZONES...TO AS HIGH AS 1.2 INCHES OVER THE NM BOOTHEEL.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SITS AROUND 1 INCH. UPPER HIGH WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. HIGH SHOULD BE
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...OVER NORTHERN TEXAS BY
FRIDAY AND OVER EASTERN TEXAS SATURDAY.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH UPPER HIGH OVER OR JUST EAST OF
THE CWA...MAXIMUM SUBSIDENCE SHOULD OCCUR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SOME INSTABILITY (MUCAPES 300-800 J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVER MOUNTAIN
AREAS. CONTINUED LOW MOUNTAIN POPS IN EACH OF THESE DAYS. ALSO
STRETCHED LOW POPS SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT FROM BOTH THE GILA/BLACK
RANGE AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AS A FEW STORMS MAY POSSIBLY DRIFT
SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WARMING TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD. MOST OF THE LOWLANDS WILL CLIMB
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE 100...LIKELY THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SINCE
MID JUNE.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER HIGH PROGGED TO BE OVER EASTERN
TEXAS. THIS WILL SWITCH UPPER FLOW TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW
MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE. LOW POPS FOR ALL ZONES LOOK
REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH OBVIOUSLY MOUNTAINS STILL WILL SEE BEST
CHANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER A FEW DEGREES WITH THE INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY AND CLOUDS.

BEYOND MONDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN VARYING WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS.
GFS BRINGS UPPER HIGH BACK OVER NORTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD PROBABLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO
THE MOUNTAINS. ECMWF KEEPS UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN
TEXAS/PANHANDLE OF TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD PERHAPS
KEEP A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS ALL ZONES...BUT EVEN ECMWF
SHOWS MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WELL INTO ARIZONA. WILL GO WITH ECMWF
FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS SLOWER EVOLVING PATTERN...AND THAT SEEMS TO
BE THE MODUS OPERANDI THIS SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 05/00Z-06/00Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD...GENLY VFR. ISOLD -TSRA BKN100CB TOPS 400...MAINLY
OVER MOUNTAINS AND DIRECTLY DOWNSTREAM (SOUTH) OF THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS...AFT 17Z TODAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE IFR
CIG...ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS 30-40 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING OVER EAST TEXAS FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL INHIBIT MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST...SO ISOLATED MAINLY
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MOST LOWLAND SITES WELL ABOVE
100 DEGREES. BY SATURDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS TO EAST TEXAS FOR THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN WITH SOME ADDED
MOISTURE. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALL ZONES SAT/SUN WITH
TEMPERATURES LOWERING A BIT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                102  76 103  77 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           98  70 100  72 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES             100  71 100  72 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO             102  69 102  73 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              77  51  78  53 /  20  20  30  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   99  70 100  72 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             91  64  93  64 /  10  10  20  20
DEMING                 100  70 100  72 /  10  10   0   0
LORDSBURG               99  68 100  69 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO     103  74 103  75 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY              101  70 103  71 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK           102  72 103  74 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              95  70  98  71 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                 102  72 103  74 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA           101  73 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ         101  72 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE          101  70 101  72 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                  102  70 102  72 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS               100  71  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE              101  72 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 86  57  87  59 /  20  20  20  20
MESCALERO               86  54  87  57 /  20  20  20  20
TIMBERON                87  58  87  59 /  20  20  20  20
WINSTON                 88  59  90  59 /  20  20  20  20
HILLSBORO               96  67  99  67 /  10  10  20  20
SPACEPORT              100  71 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            90  57  91  57 /  10  10  20  20
HURLEY                  93  65  96  66 /  10  10   0   0
CLIFF                   97  63  97  65 /   0   0  10  10
MULE CREEK              93  59  96  61 /   0   0  10  10
FAYWOOD                 93  66  97  67 /  10  10   0   0
ANIMAS                  98  68  98  69 /   0   0  10  10
HACHITA                 99  68  99  70 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          95  67  95  67 /   0   0  10  10
CLOVERDALE              91  64  92  65 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER


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