Area Forecast Discussion
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907
FXUS64 KEPZ 262141
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
341 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm weather will continue through the Memorial Day
weekend...lighter afternoon winds expected for the borderland.
Winds turn east before dawn Sunday morning...as a back door cool
front moves through from northeast. Thunderstorm and rain chances
return to the picture starting Memorial Day...through most of next
week. Highs will run just above normal this weekend...falling a
little below normal at the start of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Broad band of deep southwest flow aloft continues across AZ, NM
and old Mexico...with dry slot now moving into southern New
Mexico. Absence of mid and high cloud cover as was observed
yesterday...allows for efficient momentum mix down from 650
mb...where 40-45 mph wind speeds are noted. Attendant lee trough
across New Mexico sustains modest sfc pressure gradient across the
state. Effects from both result in the gusty winds noted this
afternoon across the CWFA.  Sfc conditions remain quite dry with
dewpoints from the mid 20s to mid teens...and min RH readings to
the single digits for some southern desert locations.

Pattern will continue to feature a weak ST jet over the SW and
southern states at least the next few days...with UL ridge
building over the NW U.S.A. early next week. Troughing aloft
continues over the north-central/central part of the country.
This feature will send a fast moving back door cool front through
during the predawn hours Sunday...shifting winds initially to the
northeast. Winds veer southeast Sunday night and couple with
typical advection of Gulf of Mexico moisture north-northwestward
over western TX. Starting early next week...effect of ridge
migration over western states will concurrently strengthen
SoCal/western AZ thermal low. Net effect will be to draw moisture
further northwestward across NM and far west TX.

The result will be mainly afternoon/early evening shower and storm
activity areawide starting Monday. During this time UL troughing
follows the ridge just off the west coast...with 110+ kt PAC jet
energy beginning to deepen this feature. This will develop an UL
cut off Low over SoCal/SW AZ latter half of the week...and serve
to continue our storm chances through at least Thursday.

Low should weaken and lift east-northeast as an open wave next
weekend...with this action allowing return of drier west or
northwest flow across the region by that time.

WIND IMPACTS WEST EL PASO - I-10/25 CORRIDOR TO LAS CRUCES EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING: DIFFICULTY DRIVING ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. Passage of back door cool front will generate tight sfc
pressure gradients across the borderland, resulting in gusty
winds across the borderland. Downslope enhancement along west
slopes of the Franklin mountains and west El Paso could lead to
some gusts over 35 mph during the predawn hours Sunday morning.

MONDAY STORM IMPACTS: DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...SHORT
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. DRY LIGHTNING.
Generation of convection under the ridge will lead to mainly air-
mass type storms...with DCAPES to 1000 j/kg or more...WB0 hghts
over 11000 ft favoring strong downburst winds.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS: INCREASING THREAT OF
FLOODING AND HAIL. STRONG WIND GUSTS.
LR model consensus continues to develop UL low over SW states
middle of next week. This will result in deepening southerly
component to flow aloft over the region...possibly tapping Gulf of
California moisture as well. Deeper moisture in the area would
favor heavy rain impacts from storms...especially with training
convection so this bears watching. There are hints that WB0
heights could fall below 9000 ft later in the week...thus better
possibility of hail looks to exist at that time.



&&

.AVIATION...Valid 27/00Z-28/00Z...
P6SM SKC-FEW250 through period. West to SW winds will be decreasing
to AOB 12KTS at all terminals by 04Z except eastern mountain slopes
where they will likely remain in the 10-20KT range through 06Z-08Z.
West winds will increase again to 15-20KTS after 18Z.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will be on the decrease the next couple of days as an upper
trough moves across the Rockies putting an end to critical fire
conditions. Winds will be shifting around to the south to southeast
Sunday which will start to increase moisture across the region and
raise relative humidities. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
starting Sunday night and continuing at least through midweek as a
couple of weak disturbances move out of the southwest. Temperatures
will remain within a few degrees of average during the forecast
period. Vent rates will be falling into the good to very good
categories as the winds shift to the southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 68  94  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           67  93  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              58  91  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              56  90  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              42  67  42  64 /   0   0   0  10
Truth or Consequences   57  91  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             50  82  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  55  90  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               55  87  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      67  91  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               62  95  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            70  96  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              64  88  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  69  94  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            62  92  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          64  91  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           55  91  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   56  93  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                57  92  56  91 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               63  91  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 53  79  46  72 /   0   0   0  10
Mescalero               47  77  46  73 /   0   0   0  10
Timberon                46  75  46  72 /   0   0   0  10
Winston                 41  83  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               50  89  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               51  92  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            40  81  43  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  45  83  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   48  87  49  89 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              51  83  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 49  85  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  54  90  55  92 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 54  91  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          55  91  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              55  85  53  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

22/26



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