Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 252116
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
216 PM MST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ALONG WITH CHANCES OF LOWLAND RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS
MAINLY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO FLOW INTO THE
BORDERLAND BEHIND THE FRONT AND THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
FALL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOL WEATHER WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER DEEP UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN UTAH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS TRAILING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN
ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTICITY
CENTERS/IMPULSES WHICH WILL ROTATE TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
PRIMARY TROUGH THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DROP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA TONIGHT WITH FIRST UPPER VORTICITY AXIS MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. MEANWHILE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SO EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
UPWARD MOTION WILL MEANWHILE BE INTENSIFYING AS FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WILL EXIST AT LOW LEVELS BENEATH DIFFERENTIAL PVA ALOFT
WITH THE CWA LOCATED IN RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 130 KT UPPER JET
STREAK. THUS EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD EASTWARD
FROM WESTERN AREAS INTO CENTRAL ZONES AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH
DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT WILL ALSO CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TOP FALL TO 6000
BEFORE BY SUNRISE.

FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY NOON FRIDAY WITH COLD AIR INFLOW
COOLING TOMORROW HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES OR ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA INDUCING LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS...MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS INDICATE A POSSIBLE
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BOTH GILA AND SACS MAINLY FROM LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY
SUSTAINING COOL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INDUCING A FEW
LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. ZONAL/WESTERLY FLOW WILL
THEN BRING WARMER DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTIES IN BEING
CONSISTENT WITH BOTH ONE ANOTHER AND THEMSELVES FROM RUN TO RUN.
HOWEVER TODAY`S 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 180 HOURS OR DAY 7. EXAMINING THE MODELS PLUS THE SUPER
BLEND DATA INDICATES THAT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
WESTWARD THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
CONCURRENTLY A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND THEN MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BRINGING A THREAT OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
WITH SNOW POSSIBLE MOUNTAINS.

&&

AVIATION...VALID 26/00Z- 27/00Z...
BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS DEPARTING S/C NM AND FAR WEST TX HAS SLOWED DOWN
MIXING BY A FEW HOURS AT SEVERAL TERMINALS...MOST NOTABLY DMN AND
ELP. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH NOT
STRONG ENOUGH FOR LLWS IN THE TAFS. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AT DMN AND ELP...WITH A BRIEF WINDOW FOR AWW
CRITERIA AT ELP...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WITH INCOMING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WELL MIXED WITH NO
STRONG MOUNTAINTOP INVERSION...THUS WINDS WILL FALL OFF BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO SW NM BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AROUND 09Z...AND THE EL
PASO AREA RIGHT AROUND DAWN.  SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 5000
FEET... AND THERE WILL BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR RASN MIX AS PRECIP
TAPERS OFF BEHIND THE FRONT AT TCS/DMN/LRU EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO IFR TERRITORY FOR A TIME...IMPROVING WITHIN
A FEW HOURS AFTER PRECIP DEPARTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE OVER SOME
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO LIMITED MIXING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 5500 FEET BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. PARTS OF THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTOS MAY SEE LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-5 INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING...HIGHEST
ABOVE 7500 FEET...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 8500 FEET.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (5-10 DEG) WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING MORE PRECIP CHANCES TO
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 42  51  31  47  26 /  20  50   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           40  55  31  46  25 /  10  20  10  20  20
LAS CRUCES              37  49  26  45  23 /  40  30   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              34  47  24  44  20 /  40  30   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              20  29  12  28  14 /  50  50  10   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   33  46  23  41  22 /  30  20   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             26  38  19  38  21 /  60  20   0   0   0
DEMING                  33  48  22  45  21 /  50  30   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               31  44  20  43  21 /  60  20   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      44  50  33  46  29 /  20  50   0   0   0
DELL CITY               37  57  28  47  22 /  10  30  10  10   0
FORT HANCOCK            40  57  31  50  25 /  10  30  10  20  10
LOMA LINDA              39  46  30  42  25 /  20  40   0   0   0
FABENS                  39  53  29  48  24 /  20  40   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            39  51  26  46  23 /  30  50   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          40  48  29  45  26 /  40  40   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           30  48  19  45  17 /  40  30   0   0   0
HATCH                   34  49  24  46  22 /  40  20   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                40  50  28  46  25 /  50  50   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               38  48  26  44  23 /  30  40   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 29  40  19  35  17 /  50  50  20   0   0
MESCALERO               25  37  15  34  16 /  50  50  10   0   0
TIMBERON                28  38  19  35  18 /  50  50  20   0   0
WINSTON                 25  38  17  37  18 /  40  20   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               31  43  21  40  21 /  40  20   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               29  47  20  44  19 /  40  20   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            23  36  15  37  17 /  60  20   0   0   0
HURLEY                  30  40  18  40  20 /  60  10   0   0   0
CLIFF                   24  41  15  43  18 /  60  10   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              19  38  11  40  15 /  60  10   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 31  41  21  40  22 /  60  20   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  34  48  23  46  22 /  60  30   0   0   0
HACHITA                 33  49  21  46  19 /  60  30   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          36  50  22  47  19 /  60  40   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              35  46  21  44  21 /  70  40   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ401>409.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR NMZ413.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NMZ414>416.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR TXZ419.

&&

$$

05 ROGASH/25 HARDIMAN




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