Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 062045
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
Issued by National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
145 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Zonal flow is expected the next seven days, but that will not be
enough to prevent a cold air mass from moving down the front range
of the Rockies and affecting the eastern half of the CWA Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Zonal, westerly flow will continue through the middle of next week
keeping the area dry. A large upper low over the Northern Plains
will send a cold front south arriving in the eastern CWA on
Thursday. The cold air will intially travel south along the front
range of the Rockies then filter westward affecting our eastern
zones with temperatures around 10 to 15 degrees below normal. The
cold air will not be able to penetrate any farther than the Rio
Grande so our western zones which will see little if any effect
from the front. There is a slight chance that isentropic lift
behind the front could cause light precipitation in Hudspeth
County along I-10, and with temperatures dropping below freezing
on Thursday morning cannot rule out freezing rain or drizzle,
however all models are showing any QPF amounts to be very light
and do not anticipate any travel hazards at this time.

The cooler air will hang around until Friday when west winds
and warmer air return for the weekend and remain into early next
week with high temperatures around 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Southwest to west winds will be gusty in the 06/20Z to 07/01Z,
otherwise VFR conditions will consist of areas of SCT100 BKN250.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Westerly winds will bring dry weather with mild temperatures across
southern New Mexico and west Texas again tomorrow. Surface winds
will be gusting to 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon with lowest
humidity around 30 to 40 percent lowlands 50 to 60 percent
mountains Wednesday. A cold front moving into the eastern counties
Wednesday night will cause cooler conditions with temperatures
falling to around 10 to 15 degrees below normal Thursday and will
bring an easterly wind shift mainly east of the Rio Grande.
Westerly winds will return to produce milder dry weather next
weekend and early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 43  59  32  47 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           40  58  28  41 /   0   0  10   0
Las Cruces              40  57  30  47 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              41  55  28  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              25  42  18  32 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   35  54  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             34  49  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  38  57  29  49 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               38  55  28  52 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      41  58  33  47 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               39  60  26  42 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            41  61  32  48 /   0   0  10   0
Loma Linda              40  55  28  40 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  42  60  30  47 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            41  58  31  47 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          40  56  30  45 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           26  57  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   35  57  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                40  58  31  50 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               40  57  29  46 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 31  48  18  35 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               29  45  19  36 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                30  47  20  35 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 30  49  20  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               35  53  26  46 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               26  55  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            27  46  21  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  35  52  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   28  53  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              24  50  22  49 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 36  52  27  46 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  38  57  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 39  56  27  50 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          40  57  28  53 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              38  54  31  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/99


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