Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 022051
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
251 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY WARM WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND FOR AREAS WEST OF THE RIVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...A DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS PUSHED MOISTURE
OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE TEENS
FOR MOST AREAS. NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THURSDAY. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME LOWLAND AREAS REACHING THE 100
DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY. THE WEST FLOW WILL ALSO
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES THROUGH THURSDAY.

BY THURSDAY...NEW MEXICO WILL REMAIN WEDGED BETWEEN AN AREA OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH ON THE
WEST COAST. THIS WILL ORIENT THE FLOW PATTERN TO A MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO FLOW BACK INTO THE REGION.
AS A RESULT...RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO ON FRIDAY. STORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE HIGHER RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED BUT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR.

SOME MODEL RUNS PROJECT THE MOISTURE FLOW TO TIGHTEN INTO A
STRONG PLUME THAT COULD BRING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND. THE MOISTURE COULD BE ENHANCED BY MOISTURE
STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM BLANCA THAT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR
THE BAJA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY AND COULD GET CAUGHT UP INTO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PULLED OVER THE REGION. THIS RAISES THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS
DISAGREE ON THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE PLUME WHICH COULD
VARY FROM ARIZONA TO NEW MEXICO.

SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE THAT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ARE IN THE
MOST FAVORED LOCATION FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD IT OCCUR. THIS
WOULD INCLUDE THE GILA REGION AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF
THE MOISTURE WHICH IS RELATED TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TEXAS
HIGH. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE AND INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD THIS WEEKEND BUT HAVE NOT
GONE TO AGGRESSIVE ON THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL YET.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO NEXT TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE DECLINE WITH A MORE ISOLATED LOWLAND...SCATTERED MOUNTAIN TYPE
PATTERN EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOMEWHAT OVER THE WEEKEND
AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO RAIN AND MOISTURE INCREASES BUT
WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/00Z-04/00Z.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT P6SM SKC ALONG WITH SFC
WINDS FROM THE WSW AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 10-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS ACROSS THE
REGION. WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER TEXAS AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE ALONG THE WEST COAST. MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH VERY LITTLE
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY EXPECTED. MEANWHILE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. LOOK FOR THE HAINES INDEX TO REMAIN IN THE MODERATE TO
HIGH RANGE AS WELL.

BY FRIDAY THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY AS
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS TAPPED AND DRAWN NORTH. IT APPEARS AS
IF THE FIRST PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL BE CONCENTRATED TO OUR WEST OVER
ARIZONA...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO BRING
ABOUT SOME WETTING PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. AN
ADDITIONAL PUSH OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE WILL
BE HEADED FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO ALONG WITH THE REMAINS OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM. IF THIS VERIFIES...WE CAN EXPECT ADDITIONAL WETTING
RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 70  99  69  97  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           65  96  65  95  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              62  96  62  94  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              63  96  63  95  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              53  76  53  75  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   61  95  62  92  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             56  86  56  84  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEMING                  58  97  58  94  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               58  95  59  93  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      70  99  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               63  99  64  98  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            68 100  68  99  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              66  93  66  91  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  66  99  66  98  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            65  97  66  95  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          66  96  66  94  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           59  96  60  94  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   60  97  61  95  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                64  96  64  94  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               67  96  66  94  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 58  84  58  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               55  84  56  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                56  83  56  81  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 53  87  54  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               57  94  58  92  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               59  96  58  93  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            51  86  52  84  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
HURLEY                  54  89  55  87  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   54  93  54  91  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
MULE CREEK              47  91  47  88  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
FAYWOOD                 57  90  58  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  59  96  59  94  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 57  97  58  95  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          58  95  58  95  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              56  91  58  89  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/27 LUNDEEN/LANEY




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