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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 280845
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
245 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND ALLOW FOR
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL NEAR DAILY RECORDS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE
SUNDAY DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN. MONDAY A FAST MOVING
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A
BIT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THIS MEANS A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES. DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW BACK OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BACK BACK INTO THE
MID 80S AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN MONDAY. AFTERNOONS LOOK BREEZY BUT
STILL NO BIG WIND EVENTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WE SIT UNDER A DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. NO MOISTURE IN
SIGHT THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION.
LESS THAN .20" PW AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS WITH AFTERNOON RH
BELOW 10 PERCENT. THIS IS WHAT SPRING SHOULD BE LIKE IN THE
BORDERLAND. ALL THAT IS MISSING IS THE STRONG WIND...AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP THAT AT BAY TOO. HOWEVER DEEP MIXING AND STRONG
SURFACE THERMALS WILL MAKE FOR SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOUT 7-8 DEGREES TODAY AND TOP OUT
QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AND RIGHT NEAR RECORD LEVELS. SUNDAY NOT
A LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ADDITION OF HIGH CLOUDS
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SAGS SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A PAIR OF APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGHS. THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER IN SOME HIGH-LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER TEMPS WILL HOLD NEAR RECORD LEVELS THANKS TO
CONTINUING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRY AIR. WINDS LOOK TO SLACKEN.

MONDAY A SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO TRACK EAST TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS THE BAJA AND THEN NORTHERN MEXICO. MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL BACK TO SW TRAJECTORIES AND IMPORT MOISTURE OVERHEAD.
AT THE SURFACE THE DEWPOINTS COME UP WITH MODERATE MOISTURE
INCREASES OUT OF MEXICO AND FROM AN EAST PUSH FROM THE PLAINS.
PROG PW`S INCREASE TO AROUND .60". CONVECTIVE PROGS INDICATE MINOR
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE/TROUGH PASSAGE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATE
HIGH BASES WITH DRY LOW LEVELS...SKINNY AND SHALLOW CAPE...AND
LITTLE SHEAR. ALL THIS INDICATES ONLY ISOLATED WEAK AND SHORT-
LIVED STORMS. DRY LIGHTNING COULD BE AN ISSUE FOR FIRE WEATHER.
TEMPERATURE FOR MONDAY WILL DROP 5-8 DEGREES.

THE SYSTEM EXITS EARLY TUESDAY AND WE RETURN TO A CLASSIC ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN FOR REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS BRINGS BACK DRY AND
MILD CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL. SKIES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. AFTERNOONS SHOULD HAVE
WINDS WITH A BREEZY CHARACTER DUE TO DEEP MIXDOWN OF MODERATE
WINDS ALOFT...DESPITE ONLY MINOR LEE TROUGHING. STILL NO
DEVELOPING STRONG WIND/BLOWING DUST EVENT PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/12Z-29/12Z...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY
RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MORNING WINDS AND MINOR
AFTERNOON GUSTING. BOTH DAYS WILL SEE WESTERLIES. WE MAY SEE A
FEW GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE IN FAR SW NEW MEXICO DURING PEAK
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS. SKIES CLR.
VSBY UNLIMITED. WINDS 250-280 5-8 G12-17KTS AFT 20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AND
THEN SHIFT EASTWARD AND SLOWLY BREAK DOWN SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH MAX TEMPS SPIKING TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING
OR EXCEEDING DAILY RECORDS IN SOME SPOTS. CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH SINGLE-DIGIT AFTERNOON RH VALUES. RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR IN
THE LOWLANDS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
FAR SW NEW MEXICO WITH A FEW 20-FT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE
LOWLAND DESERTS.

A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL ROLL THROUGH ON
MONDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WITH A 5-10 DEGREE COOL DOWN. LOW LEVELS
LOOK TO STAY DRY AND STORMS WILL BE HIGH-BASED. THUS ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK
UP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (80S IN THE DESERTS) BY MID-
WEEK. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARM DRY AND
BREEZY. BREEZY AFTERNOONS...BUT NO BLOCKBUSTER WIND EVENTS ON ARE
ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 87  53  88  58  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           82  48  84  53  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              85  45  85  53  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              83  46  84  52  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              63  43  64  42  57 /   0   0   0   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   82  47  83  53  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             75  44  76  48  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEMING                  85  43  85  52  81 /   0   0   0   0  10
LORDSBURG               83  43  84  50  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      86  52  87  58  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               86  45  88  53  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            87  49  89  57  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              79  53  80  55  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  87  50  88  58  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            84  47  86  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          82  50  84  56  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           85  41  84  48  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   85  45  85  52  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
COLUMBUS                83  46  84  54  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
OROGRANDE               82  49  84  54  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 72  47  74  45  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
MESCALERO               71  43  72  43  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
TIMBERON                70  45  72  45  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
WINSTON                 76  42  76  45  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
HILLSBORO               80  47  81  50  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPACEPORT               83  43  84  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            75  41  75  44  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
HURLEY                  78  45  79  49  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLIFF                   82  40  82  47  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
MULE CREEK              80  36  81  41  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
FAYWOOD                 79  46  79  50  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANIMAS                  84  45  84  53  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
HACHITA                 84  43  85  51  81 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          85  43  84  50  79 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              81  46  81  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD




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