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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 231134
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
534 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 311 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Quiet weather conditions with warming temperatures and breezy
winds can be expected today and Wednesday. Active weather returns
to the Borderland as a series of storm systems move across the
region Thursday through Saturday. Windy conditions, patchy
blowing, and critical fire weather conditions can be expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Overall, no changes from the previous forecast packages with quiet
and warm weather expected for today and Wednesday. Active weather
pattern returns for the second half of the work week and into the
weekend.

...Today and Wednesday...

Upper level ridging will build in over the region for the short term
period. This will result in warm temperatures today and Wednesday.
Temperatures will remain above average by a good 5-10 degrees each
afternoon with high temperatures topping out in the low 90s for the
El Paso and Las Cruces areas with middle to upper 80s elsewhere
across the desert lowlands. Predominately light southwesterly flow
aloft and a rather relaxed pressure gradient at the surface will
result in light to low-end breezes today and Wednesday. Generally
terrain driven and drainage regime-like flows during the morning and
evening hours, with winds becoming west/southwesterly through the
late morning and afternoon hours at 10-20 mph. As mentioned
above, there really won`t be any change on Wednesday, other than a
degree or two drop in afternoon highs and a slight uptick in
winds.

...Thursday...

A relatively active pattern will set up across the Desert Southwest,
really beginning on Thursday. The next upper level system will come
onshore across Southern California late Wednesday night and early
Thursday morning. This will be the first in a series of upper level
troughs that will approach and move across the region. Ahead of the
first system, flow aloft will quickly become southwest with a 60-80
knot 500mb jet overspreading southwest New Mexico by the morning
hours on Thursday. This will ultimately lead to the trough becoming
negatively tilted over the Southwest/Four Corners vicinity. With the
presence of ample upper level winds, increasing upper level cyclonic
flow, and diffluence, the stage will be set for a fairly decent wind
event on Thursday across the Borderland. Dropping down to the
surface, the increasing upper level dynamics will promote lee-side
surface cyclogenesis over southeast Colorado. Ensemble guidance and
their respected suites continue to show fairly good agreement that a
sub-996mb low will develop with it`s associated surface trough
extending across New Mexico. Decent confidence in the expected
surface pressure analysis, coupled with deep mixing during peak
heating, will lead to gusty winds at the surface. As of now, there`s
medium to high confidence that wind headlines will be needed (likely
Wind Advisory for most of the area, outside of the high terrain).
NBM 75th percentile winds (has been doing a decent job with previous
wind storms) paints most of the forecast area with 45-55 mph wind
gusts on Thursday. This coupled with wind trajectories out of the
WSW/SW, will lead to a favorable setup for blowing dust across the
desert lowlands.

The storm system`s trough axis will swing across the forecast area
during the evening hours, with it`s associated Pacific front
expected to move through between 4-10 PM with winds becoming W/WNW
along and behind frontal passage.

...Friday and Saturday...

Heading into Friday, flow aloft will remain under the influence of
the long wave trough across western half of CONUS with a west to
east 50-60 knot 500mb jet overhead. Lee-side low formation will take
place over southeast Colorado during the Friday afternoon/evening
timeframe. Although not as prominent as Thursday`s surface low, it
will still promote breezy to windy conditions across the area. Wind
speeds of 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph can be expected on Friday.
Trajectories look to be more westerly, however, blowing dust will
still be possible.

On Saturday, the second and final upper level trough will swing
across the Four Corners and Central Rockies regions. This system
looks to pack a punch as well. Once again, upper level ingredients
coupled with a 65-75 knot 500mb jet will lead to gusty winds. At the
surface, strengthening cyclogenesis throughout the afternoon hours
will lead to surface troughing across New Mexico. Expect winds of 25
-35 mph with gusts of 40-50 mph. Once again, blowing dust will be a
concern, especially for areas closest to the International Border.

This system will likely be accompanied by higher moisture values.
However, with it`s track further north across Colorado, confidence
is low in portions of the area receiving any precipitation.

...Sunday through Early Next Week...

Quiet weather will return to the region as the upper level flow
regime becomes zonal. Temperatures will respond, increasing back
above the seasonal average, with light breezes expected during that
timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SKC-FEW250.
Winds light and VRB through the early to mid morning, becoming
southwesterly at 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots by 18-20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 311 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Fire Weather conditions will be ELEVATED to LOW-END CRITICAL today
and Wednesday. Upper level ridging will return to the region with
temperatures becoming 5-10 degrees above average, with corresponding
Min RH values in the single digits across the desert lowlands and
mountain foothills/valleys, 10-17 percent Min RHs for the highest
terrain. Predominately light southwesterly flow aloft and a rather
relaxed pressure gradient at the surface will result in light to low-
end breezes today and Wednesday. Generally terrain driven and
drainage regime-like flows during the morning and evening hours,
with winds becoming west/southwesterly through the late morning
and afternoon hours at 10-20 mph.

Thursday through Saturday timeframe will become more active in terms
of fire weather conditions. CRITICAL to potentially EXTREME (desert
lowlands) fire weather conditions. Given the setup and expected
meteorological conditions, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for
all fire weather zones across the area for Thursday. Critically low
RH values and gusty to strong southwest winds can be expected during
the late morning hours, lasting through the evening timeframe. As
fuels continue to cure and dry out, especially below ~8000 to 8500
feet, any fires that develop will spread rapidly under these
conditions. Areas within the highest terrain, where fuels are still
relatively moist, the expected meteorological conditions will still
support Critical Fire Weather. Also worth noting, a minor wind shift
can be expected during the late afternoon to evening timeframe as a
Pacific front moves across the region. Exact timing on frontal
passage still needs to be ironed out, but sometime during the late
afternoon to evening from west to east.

Critically low Min RH values and breezy to windy conditions will
still be present on Saturday and Sunday with ELEVATED to CRITICAL
Fire Weather Conditions expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  91  62  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            85  57  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               91  57  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               87  53  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               64  44  63  45 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    88  55  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              78  51  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   88  52  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                86  52  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       88  61  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                90  51  90  52 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             91  55  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               82  56  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   90  57  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             86  55  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           88  63  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            87  53  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    89  52  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 88  57  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                86  54  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  77  48  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                75  47  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 74  46  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  80  46  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                85  51  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                86  49  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             78  46  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   82  48  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    85  52  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               80  51  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  81  52  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   86  52  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  86  54  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           85  52  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               79  52  78  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for TXZ055-056.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for NMZ110>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers