Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 022155
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
355 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOR THE
BORDERLAND TONIGHT AND TUSSUAD...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES
OVER AND WARMS TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL MID WEEK. SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH COUNTRY
TUSSUAD AND THERESITA. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
WINDS BACK INTO THE PICTURE LATER IN THE WEEK...WHILE MAINTAINING
WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. CHANGES FOR MOUNTAIN STORMS RETURN
AT THAT TIME AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH MORE COOLER
WEATHER ON TAP THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CON`S...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES AND
ACTIVE STD CONTINUING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS FROM
WESTERN AZ. SUBTLE LIFT AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE ARE WORKING WITH SCANT SFC MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...IN
GENERATING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE GILL REGION AND
SACRAMENTO MTNS AT THIS TIME.

THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS TONIGHT...THEN COMBINE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER THE REGION MID WEEK IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC. ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL WARM HIGHS QUICKLY BACK ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE REGION. WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...AS WARM AIR EDIFICATION OVERTAKES THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WHILE IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

THE LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A BROAD OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH
LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BEFORE EXITING EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK


IMPACTS TONIGHT: EAST WINDS OCCASIONALY GUSTING TO 20 MPH OR
HIGHER FOR WEST EL PASO. DOWN SLOPE ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW
OUT OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS FRIDAY: BREEZY TO MARGINALLY WINDY WITH
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER. MIX DOWN OF STRENGTHENING
WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DUE IN NEXT WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LEE TROUGH OVER THE AREA...WOULD LEAD TO
THE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE REGION. AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
AFFECT EFFECIENCY OF MOMENTUM MIX DOWN AND ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS
AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...03/00Z-04/00Z.
P6SM SKC-FEW080-100 THRU PD. WINDS WILL BE E TO SE AOB 12KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL BRING
A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP TO
KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT
TEENS OVER THE LOWLANDS WILL BE COMMON FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS
HIGHS APPROACH 90 LATE IN THE WEEK...SINGLE DIGITS HUMIDITIES ARE
POSSIBLE AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH STRONGEST WINDS ON
FRIDAY. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SOMEWHAT FOR THE WEEKEND BUT BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS STORM
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH. BESIDES SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 50  82  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           44  79  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              46  79  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              44  78  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              33  58  38  62 /   0  10   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   45  77  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             42  74  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  47  80  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               47  82  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      51  81  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               41  78  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            47  83  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              45  77  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  48  82  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            48  81  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          48  79  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           42  78  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   44  81  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                48  82  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               48  78  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 34  64  40  70 /   0  10   0   0
MESCALERO               35  65  40  70 /   0  10   0   0
TIMBERON                36  64  40  71 /   0  10   0   0
WINSTON                 36  70  40  76 /   0  10   0   0
HILLSBORO               43  76  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               44  78  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            35  73  38  78 /   0  10   0   0
HURLEY                  42  75  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   39  80  43  84 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              38  78  42  83 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 42  76  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  48  83  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 47  82  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          47  83  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              46  81  51  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/22/26


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