Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 260523 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1223 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.AVIATION...
06 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---Return of MVFR ceilings this morning with convective
activity possible through the day.

For the Metroplex TAF sites---Patchy MVFR ceilings located to the
west of the Metroplex TAF sites should slowly creep eastward with
time. Stratus should remain in the FL015-FL025 range through at
least mid-morning today. As mentioned in the 00 UTC Aviation AFD...IFR
ceilings appear unlikely due to nocturnal mixing. Some patchy BR
will also be possible, especially at some of the more rural
Metroplex TAF sites as well. The other concern will be the
potential for VCSH and VCTS through the day on Thursday. VCSH
still appears possible mid to late morning Thursday with perhaps a
brief lull during the afternoon hours. The better threat for VCTS
appears towards the 00 UTC time frame for several hours as the
main trough lifts out into the area.

DFW Extended---The threat for TS is expected to continue after 00
UTC Friday. Thereafter, a return to MVFR cigs with the continued
threat for -SHRA will continue. Additional periods of TS may be
possible after 04 UTC, but confidence is too low to include in the
TAF at this time.

For the Waco TAF site---MVFR stratus will gradually overspread
the Waco TAF site. Similar to the Metroplex TAF sites...IFR
conditions are not expected due to the increased winds this
morning. VCSH is expected during the mid morning hours. As the
upper trough approaches, more vigorous lift should result in the
generation of widespread showers and thunderstorms during the mid
to late afternoon hours. Thereafter---primarily VCSH is expected.
The chance for VCTS after 02 UTC does exist, but remains too low
to continue during this time. Additional TAFs will address this
potential, however.

Bain

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/
After a relatively quiet stretch, an active and wet weather
pattern is in store for North Central Texas to close out the week
and into the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend.

Currently, the dryline has mixed east to a roughly Wichita Falls
to Abilene line early this afternoon based on surface observations.
Temperatures in this region have warmed into the upper 80s to near
90 F. Visible satellite loops show limited vertical growth in the
cumulus field in this region indicating that convective initiation
is not immediately likely. That being said, any storms that do
develop into this environment--characterized by MLCAPE values in
excess of 3000 J/kg and deep layer shear values near 30-40 kts--
would have the potential to become severe very quickly posing
mainly a risk for large hail and damaging winds.

Convection presently developing across the high terrain of Mexico
is expected to congeal into a cluster and track across the Hill
Country later this evening. Latest indications are that this
convection may impact southern parts of our CWA. It appears that
this activity should stay south of the metroplex tonight, and thus
have confined the highest PoPs (40%) to south of a roughly
Stephenville to Coriscana line.

Late tonight and into tomorrow morning, a lead shortwave--which
has been picked up for several days now by most NWP--is expected
to translate into southeastern Texas. Based on the consistency
seen in the past few runs of the ECMWF, have followed its timing
and show precip chances increasing during the 12-18Z time frame
tomorrow, which also agrees well with this morning`s run of the
Texas Tech WRF. This activity should be elevated and will likely
not pose much of a severe weather risk. At this time, think the
severe weather threat tomorrow will be tempered somewhat by 1)
relatively weak wind fields and 2) reduced lapse rates/instability
owing to morning showers/storms. One potential caveat in this
forecast: if this precipitation does not materialize during the
morning hours and we are able warm more than currently
anticipated, any convection that fires in the vicinity of the cold
front/dryline to the west would pose a greater severe weather
risk than presently advertised.

Profiles will moisten further Thursday night into Friday as the
brunt of a potent upper low approaches the region. It is during
this time frame that we are most concerned about a heavy rain and
flash flood threat, as PWAT values increase to around +2SD above
normal, combined with deep warm cloud layers promoting efficient
rain processes. However, because of uncertainties regarding the
position of a potential MCS near the Gulf of Mexico reducing the
poleward transport of moisture into the region, we have opted to
hold off on the issuance of a flash flood watch at this time. That
said, the risk for heavy rainfall with amounts of 2 to 4 inches
and locally higher (greatest amounts south and east of the
metroplex) exists late Thursday night and into Friday. Severe
weather will also be a possibility on Friday as wind profiles
increase ahead of the upper level low. There may be a conditional
tornado potential late Thursday night and into Friday as well,
given the deep tropical airmass in place and 0-1 km shear values
increasing into the 25 to 30 kt range.

A brief respite from the widespread showers and storms should then
occur on Saturday as the main area of ascent moves north and east
of the area. However, expect the weather to remain unsettled as
broad troughing takes hold over the Western CONUS.

Carlaw



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  83  73  81  70 /  20  60  60  70  40
Waco                75  81  73  81  71 /  40  60  60  70  40
Paris               73  79  70  76  68 /  20  60  60  80  70
Denton              74  81  71  80  68 /  20  60  60  70  40
McKinney            74  81  72  79  69 /  20  60  60  70  50
Dallas              75  83  73  81  71 /  20  60  60  70  40
Terrell             74  82  73  79  70 /  20  60  50  80  60
Corsicana           75  80  73  79  71 /  30  70  60  80  50
Temple              75  80  72  81  71 /  40  60  60  70  40
Mineral Wells       74  81  71  84  67 /  30  50  70  60  30

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

15/78


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