Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 261735 AAD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1235 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

The main concern with the 18Z TAF package is the potential for
thunderstorms this evening. As a shortwave moves across the
Central Plains, thunderstorms across the Northern Oklahoma are
expected to build southward toward North Texas. At this time, it
looks like this activity should approach the Red River 22-23z and
affect the Metroplex between 01z and 04Z. Thus have placed a VCTS
in the Metroplex TAFs for the time period. There may be a few
hours of northerly winds if this thunderstorm complex moves
through, but given the uncertainty, have not indicated this
wind shift in the TAFs at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected to prevail.

At Waco: Any activity that moves into North Texas should weaken
as it moves south of the I-20 corridor. Although we cannot
completely rule out the possibility of a TSRA, have only
indicated VCSH in Waco TAF for the 05-09z period. Expect south
winds around 10 knots to generally prevail.



Main update to the forecast was to nudge temperatures upward by a
few degrees out across western zones as well as increase PoPs for
later this afternoon and through the evening hours.

Radar and satellite imagery this morning revealed a loosely
defined MCS across portions of eastern and south-central Oklahoma.
The 12 UTC FWD RAOB isn`t overly impressive, but it`s likely that
modification of the airmass across North TX will occur as daytime
heating continues. Water vapor imagery showed a building ridge to
the west which should help to amplify the trough responsible for
the convection. The cessation of the convection is the toughest
portion of the forecast. Most short term models indicate building
instability across northern/northeastern zones this afternoon with
little to no convective inhibition. In addition, upshear Corfidi
vectors coupled with the larger synoptic scale flow should steer
the MCS southward towards North TX late this afternoon and into
the early evening (assuming that the convection persists). The
HRRR and TTU WRF seem to be doing the best with ongoing trends and
the forecast through at least the 03 UTC time frame attempts to
mirror these model solutions. I`ve introduced chance PoPs (50%)
along the immediate Red River Valley for now as there still
remains some uncertainty with regards to the cessation of the
ongoing MCS. Beyond 03 UTC, I`ve added a low chance for
showers/storms across Central TX, but generally expect that these
chances are very slim across this region. This is mainly due to
the fact that a bulk of the large scale ascent associated with the
trough will be departing the region. That coupled with nocturnal
cooling as well as weak low level flow should limit the ability
for additional convective development. We will keep an eye on
convective trends upstream, however, and make additional changes
as necessary.

The other change was to nudge high temperatures upward across
western zones as southwest flow ahead of the cold front continues.
The cold front should stall near the Red River this afternoon
before becoming ill-defined and lifting northward. The remainder
of the forecast looks to be in good shape and updated products
have been transmitted.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/
High clouds will continue to clear from west to east this morning
with a passing short wave. The clearing skies will allow for the
air to cool to near saturation by sunrise with some patchy fog
possible. The potential for dense fog will be fairly low since
some higher momentum air from a 30 knot low level jet will keep
the air mixed up down low. The low level jet will also bring up a
surge of Gulf moisture which will result in a brief period of
morning low clouds over much of the region.

The remainder of today will be partly to mostly sunny and warm
with afternoon highs in the lower and middle 80s. A cold front will
approach the region from the northwest through the day, but
vigorous mixing along the leading edge should slow its southeast
progression. The front will most likely stall just northwest of
the region late this afternoon and begin to retreat northward
tonight. Even though the front is not expected to directly impact
the region, there is a potential for some afternoon convection to
develop on the front in Oklahoma. These storms will move southeast
and may impact the northeast quarter of North Texas this evening.
Although severe storms appear unlikely, there should be enough mid
level instability for some decent updrafts with a potential for
gusty winds and small hail. Any storms that do manage to develop
should either dissipate or move east of the region overnight once
large scale subsidence increases on the back side of the
departing upper trough.

A strong ridge of high pressure will build over the state Thursday
and remain in place through the weekend, resulting in warm and
rain-free weather with highs mainly in the middle 80s.

The ridge will begin to break down late in the weekend with the
ridge axis shifting to the east early next week. An upper level
trough will approach from the west Monday and Tuesday and result
in a deepening surface trough across the Central High Plains and a
surge of moisture across Central and North Texas. The increase in
moisture and large scale lift will result in the return of some
low rain/storm chances Tuesday and Wednesday.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    84  65  85  64  84 /  10  30   5   5   0
Waco                85  62  86  60  85 /  10  20   5   5   0
Paris               82  60  83  60  84 /  30  50   5   5   0
Denton              83  61  84  60  84 /  10  30   5   5   0
McKinney            82  62  83  61  83 /  20  40   5   5   0
Dallas              84  65  85  64  85 /  10  30   5   5   0
Terrell             83  62  84  60  84 /  10  30   5   5   0
Corsicana           83  62  85  61  84 /  10  20   5   5   0
Temple              84  62  85  59  84 /  10  10   5   5   0
Mineral Wells       85  61  85  60  85 /  10  20   5   5   0




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