Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 021825
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1225 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE DURATION OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IS THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.

CLOUD HEIGHTS WERE GENERALLY RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 HUNDRED FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AT NOON/18Z. HRRR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW LIFT WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWEST FEW
THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY...WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL
FOR THE PROSPECTS OF HAVING CLOUD HEIGHTS CLIMB MUCH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...THERE IS STILL SOME HEATING
AT THE SURFACE. DESPITE PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...THERE IS NO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO AROUND 40 DEGREES OR JUST ABOVE FOR
TODAY`S HIGH. HOWEVER...RECENT WIDESPREAD SNOW/SLEET MELT ACROSS
THE DFW AREA HAS LEFT THE GROUND VERY DAMP. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT ANY INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE WILL BE MET WITH AN INCREASE IN
DEW POINT DUE TO EVAPORATION KEEPING CEILING HEIGHTS MORE OR LESS
STEADY THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THINK THAT CLOUD HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITIES WILL TEND
TO REMAIN STABLE. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHICH SHOULD START TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO LOWER THE NEAR SURFACE STABILITY
PROFILES A BIT. EVEN IF WE MAINTAIN SOME INVERSION...A SMALLER
DEPTH OF THE INVERSION COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BETTER MIXING THAT RESULTS IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD HEIGHTS TOWARDS 1000 FEET AGL. WENT WITH A FEW HOURS OF
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS TOMORROW MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LOW-LEVEL JET...AND THEN SLOWLY IMPROVED CIGS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR...AS DEW POINTS CLIMB ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WARM AIR INCREASES IN INTENSITY...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG IF NEAR SURFACE WINDS CAN REMAIN
DECOUPLED FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE HALF
MILE OR BELOW TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER WARM
AIR ADVECTION...HOWEVER THIS IS SOMETHING WE`LL BE WATCHING
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

CAVANAUGH

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

MORNING KFWD SOUNDING SHOWS THE SWALLOW ARCTIC AIR CONTINUING TO
MODIFY SLOWLY OVERNIGHT WITH A SHARPE INVERSION NOW AROUND 1200
FEET AND AROUND 50 DEGREES (10C) AT 850 MB (5000 FEET). AS A
RESULT OUR LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG IN TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY 5 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING LOWS. COOLEST HIGHS WILL BE
OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE SNOWFALL WAS HEAVIEST. AS WINDS
VEER EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WE WILL SEE DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO
RISE AS A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM THE SOUTH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE FOG
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT.

FIRST LOOK AT THE MORNING MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY MAJOR CHANGES
NEEDED. WE/LL BE WORKING ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. 75

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  65  39  39  27 /  40  40  60  70  50
WACO, TX              42  69  48  48  28 /  30  30  50  70  60
PARIS, TX             39  63  38  40  24 /  40  60  60  70  60
DENTON, TX            39  65  35  37  25 /  40  40  60  60  50
MCKINNEY, TX          40  64  37  38  25 /  40  50  60  70  50
DALLAS, TX            41  67  40  41  27 /  40  40  60  70  50
TERRELL, TX           41  67  42  43  27 /  40  50  60  70  60
CORSICANA, TX         43  68  46  47  28 /  40  40  60  70  60
TEMPLE, TX            42  68  50  50  28 /  30  30  40  70  60
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  69  35  37  26 /  30  30  60  60  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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