Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 241717 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1217 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE WITH VFR
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL SITES.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS LARGE SCALE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS TO COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS AND STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 7-10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. 09/GP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
RIDGING ALOFT DOMINATES THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERING ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...RESULTING IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 90 ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. THE
SATURDAY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT DFW IS 89 WHICH IS CERTAINLY
ATTAINABLE /THE WACO RECORD WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO REACH AT 94/.

AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE 140W LONGITUDINAL LINE
IN THE PACIFIC WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ON
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND IN OUR UPPER RIDGE.
LEE ROCKIES SURFACE TROUGHING WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE RESULTING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO
THE PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE BEGUN DAMPENING BY THEN WHILE
SIMULTANEOUSLY EXHIBITING A POSITIVE TILT APPEARANCE. THIS
TYPICALLY RESULTS IN LESS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT
BROAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 TO
30 POPS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE...WITH ACTIVITY OCCURRING MAINLY NEAR THE
FRONT.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS INDICATES ANOTHER
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND BRINGS A PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH TEXAS. IF THE ECMWF
IS CORRECT...WE WOULD NEED TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL POPS THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE TRENDED WARMER THAN THE ECMWF BUT
NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THE GFS IN THE DAYS 6-7 PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. WE HAVE ALSO LEFT OUT POPS FOR NEXT THURSDAY-FRIDAY FOR
NOW AND WOULD PREFER TO GET SOME BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE
TRENDING ONE WAY OR ANOTHER ON DAY 7.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  63  90  65  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              85  60  90  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             81  59  86  61  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            85  60  91  62  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          83  59  89  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            85  64  90  66  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           83  60  87  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         83  61  87  62  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            84  60  88  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  60  91  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

09/





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