Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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475
FXUS64 KFWD 311555
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1055 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Quick update this morning to make minor adjustments to afternoon
PoPs and to account for temperature/dewpoint trends. Have decided
to extend a 10% mention of thunderstorms a bit farther eastward
this afternoon. The upper ridge continues to slightly weaken as
it slowly drifts southwestward across North Texas and will likely
be capable of suppressing most convection this afternoon. While
most model guidance is fairly dry for the afternoon time period,
PW values are currently a bit higher than some guidance wants to
believe in their analyses. With sufficient moisture still in
place, isolated showers or a couple thunderstorms are still
possible as the environment becomes uncapped via daytime heating.
The most preferential area for any development seems to be along
and west of the I-35 corridor.

Will continue to assess new guidance regarding the additional rain
and thunderstorm chances with the weak cold front expected
overnight and Thursday. Products for this update have already
been transmitted.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 704 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016/
/12Z TAFs/

Increasing subsidence/drying in the mid-levels should preclude
afternoon convective development today. In the meantime however,
a moist tropical air mass remains within 10kft of the surface, and
some morning showers will be possible within the Metroplex. The
activity this afternoon will be primarily west of the I-35
corridor, but the coverage should not be widespread enough to
significantly disrupt west departures or arrivals through the
western cornerposts.

Northerly winds will prevail, but with light speeds, there will be
a fair amount of variation in the direction.

Appropriately for the first day of meteorological autumn, a cold
front will approach North Texas on Thursday. This will increase
rain chances, with the potential for categorical SHRA/TSRA
Thursday afternoon. If deemed necessary, this would be introduced
into the extended portion of the DFW TAF with the 18Z issuance.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  77  92  75  89 /  10  10  50  30  10
Waco                95  75  93  74  89 /  10   5  30  20  20
Paris               93  73  88  70  86 /  10  20  40  20  10
Denton              92  73  89  71  88 /  20  20  50  30  10
McKinney            92  74  89  72  88 /  10  10  50  20  10
Dallas              96  78  92  76  89 /  10  10  50  20  10
Terrell             92  75  90  73  87 /  10  10  40  20  10
Corsicana           94  76  92  75  89 /  10   5  30  20  20
Temple              93  74  93  73  89 /  10   5  20  20  30
Mineral Wells       92  72  89  71  88 /  20  20  40  30  20

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

05/26



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