682
FXUS64 KFWD 071902
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
202 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday night/

An unseasonably warm day is taking shape this Tuesday as
temperature rise into the mid-upper 80s. Latest surface analysis
shows a weak cold front moving across North Texas, and while it is
bringing drier air, temperatures won`t change much as highs are
expected to peak in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. The front
will likely diffuse as it becomes nearly stationary over our area,
so half of our CWA will enjoy the dewpoints in the 30s/40s and
the other half will stay in the 60s/70s. Winds will return to the
south this afternoon but will stay light.

While dry and mostly clear conditions will continue for most of
us today, a few isolated storms may develop across western Central
Texas this evening. If storms are able to develop near/south of
the diffuse front, they may become severe with large hail and
damaging wind gusts. They should be short-lived and diminish by
9-10pm. Otherwise, mostly tranquil conditions are expected
tonight other than low clouds returning to our area early
Wednesday morning. This will keep morning lows in the 60s and 70s.

As advertised over the last several days, the weather pattern
will be active on Wednesday as another dryline/cold front
approaches from the north. While there is a low chance (<10%) of
showers and isolated storms late morning or early afternoon, the
main storm event will still evolve in the late afternoon and
evening. Scattered storms are expected to develop along the
surface boundary, especially along/east of I-35 and along/north of
I-20. Some of these storms will be severe given the highly
unstable environment (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). While very large
hail and damaging winds are the main threats, we can`t rule out a
tornado or two. The main window to pay attention will be between
4-9 pm as most of the activity should be east of our area after
that. Storms may be fairly discrete at first and eventually merge
into a cluster as they move across northeast/east Texas. Rain
chances decrease after midnight with quiet conditions persisting
overnight.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 316 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024/
/Wednesday Night Onward/

A cold front will continue to sag south through the forecast area
Wednesday night into Thursday as a positive tilt trough drops
southeast from the Plains to the Mississippi Valley. Precipitation
will come to an end Wednesday night with the loss of instability
and the exit of the trough. Convection may reignite Thursday
afternoon across Central and East Texas in the vicinity of the
front, however, as a trailing disturbance approaches. Thursday`s
storms (some of which will be severe based on the high levels of
CAPE and effective shear in place) will exit to the south and east
Thursday night as the front receives a stronger southward push
and heads for South Texas and the northwest Gulf.

This will set the stage for a nice start to the weekend as cooler
and drier air enters with the cold front. Friday and Saturday
highs in the 70s will be generally 5 to 10 degrees below normal,
while nighttime lows from the mid 50s to lower 60s will be 3 to 5
degrees below normal.

Return flow will begin on Sunday as the post-frontal surface
ridge heads for the Central Gulf Coast. Clouds will be on the
increase during the day Sunday as a cut-off low over the Desert
Southwest advances east. Moisture return will be initially
minimal, but scattered showers should become possible by Sunday
evening across our western and southern counties as both moisture
and lift gradually increase. Better rain chances will occur
Monday and Monday night as the upper low crosses the Texas
Panhandle, with rain and storm chances continuing through next
Tuesday as the low transitions to an open trough while moving east
through the Plains.

Weak flow aloft and modest instability should mitigate the
potential for severe weather Sunday and Monday. Strengthening
shear and better instability will increase the severe potential
for next Tuesday, though it is a bit too soon to narrow down all
severe weather parameters. Either way, rain and storm chances
will continue through the middle of next week as a second upper
trough passes through the region. A mid level ridge will then
develop overhead late next week, possibly bringing another lull in
rain chances.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 109 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Low cigs early Wednesday morning, convective potential
Wednesday afternoon.

VFR conditions will prevail the rest of the day and most of the
night before another round of low clouds/MVFR cigs return to the
region around 07-08Z. While the majority of the IFR ceilings are
expected to stay across portions of East/Central TX, there is a
medium-high chance KACT will see IFR conditions between 11-15Z.
Clouds will eventually scatter out by early afternoon as a weak
cold front moves through. Winds will shift from northwesterly to
south-southeasterly in the next few hours, but will remain light
through tonight. They are forecast to increase tomorrow morning to
around 12-18 kt gusting to 25 kt.

A few isolated storms may develop across western Central Texas
and move near KACT this evening, but probability/confidence
remain low to mention any thunder at this time. For tomorrow
afternoon, scattered showers and storms are expected to develop
near an approaching cold front in North Texas. The highest
chances remain to the north-northeast of the DFW Metroplex sites,
but one or two storms may impact some of the eastern sites
(KDFW, KDAL, and KGKY). Given the uncertainties on timing and
coverage, the current forecast didn`t introduce any VCTS at this
time. This will need to be monitored during future TAFs updates.

Sanchez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  91  67  81  62 /   5  20  10  30  20
Waco                72  89  71  82  62 /  10  20  10  40  20
Paris               69  85  63  81  59 /  10  30  30  30  20
Denton              69  90  63  81  58 /   0  10  10  20  10
McKinney            70  89  64  80  59 /   5  30  20  30  10
Dallas              73  91  67  82  62 /   5  20  10  30  20
Terrell             72  87  67  82  60 /  10  20  20  30  20
Corsicana           74  87  71  84  62 /  10  20  20  40  20
Temple              72  89  70  84  62 /  20   5   5  40  10
Mineral Wells       69  91  63  80  58 /   0   0   5  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$