Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 191005
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
405 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

A layer of stratus will remain over the southeast half of the
forecast area this morning as low pressure deepens over the
Central High Plains and draws moisture northward. The low clouds
have kept temperatures up overnight with many locations still well
above freezing as of 3 AM. We anticipate some mixing on the
northern edge of the cloud shield through the day, but overall,
the clouds will remain pretty close to where they currently are.
This will make the high temperature forecast for today a bit
challenging since the clouds will offset increasing low level warm
air advection. Therefore, afternoon highs across the southeast
will be generally in the upper 40s with lower 60s across the west.

A few light showers will be possible across the east/southeast
zones through the day as low level moisture increases. However,
large scale subsidence underneath a building upper ridge should
keep the chance of any measurable rainfall low.

Low level moisture will increase tonight with the development of
a 40 knot low level jet. Therefore, tonight will be cloudy,
breezy, and much warmer with a slight chance of showers along
with some patchy fog across the southeast. Low temperatures
tonight will be warmer than they have been the past several days
with mainly 40s across the entire region.

79

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Saturday through Friday/
Saturday will be a breezy and warm day as Gulf moisture continues
to surge northward into a deep low pressure system approaching
from the west. Although a few showers will be possible in the east
Saturday, most locations will not see any measurable rain until
Sunday. High temperatures Saturday will be in the lower 70s in
the west where some afternoon sun is expected. The eastern zones
will only warm into the lower and middle 60s due to extensive
cloud cover.

The upper low will move into the Four Corners Saturday night with
increasing large scale lift across North and Central Texas. This
will result in a few more warm air advection showers overnight.

The better rain chances will arrive on Sunday when the upper low
lifts into the Central Plains and opens the door to a Pacific cold
front. The front will sweep across the region during the day and
bring a fairly quick shot of showers and thunderstorms. Although
surface based instability will be weak, abundant moisture and
shear will result in a chance for a few strong to marginally
severe storms mainly east of the I-35 corridor Sunday afternoon.
Strong and gusty winds will be the primary severe weather hazard.

As the front sweeps east across the region, strong and gusty west
winds will develop in its wake. The combination of adiabatic
warming, decreasing dewpoints, and increasing winds will result
in a high fire weather threat across the western zones. Since
fine fuels are in abundance due to the extended hard freeze in
recent days, we will issue a Fire Weather Watch generally west of
a line from a Gainesville to Weatherford to Hamilton from late
morning Sunday through Sunday evening.

The remainder of next week will be fairly quiet with dry, mainly zonal
flow aloft. Temperatures will be near or slightly above seasonal
normals with highs generally in the 50s to lower 60s and lows
mainly in the 30s and lower 40s.

The next rain chances will arrive Thursday night and continue
through Saturday with the approach and passage of another upper
trough and cold front.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1121 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/
/06z TAFs/

No major changes from previous TAFs with predominantly VFR
conditions expected through the overnight hours and into Friday.
The one exception may be at the Waco TAF site where cigs could
briefly dip below 3 kft around daybreak, but otherwise, cigs
around 3-4 kft can be expected. Metroplex TAF sites can expected
continued periods of stratus around 4-5 kft and an increase in
high clouds from an approaching upper disturbance. Winds will
remain out of the south around 10 kts overnight before increasing
in speed by midday Friday; some gusts around 20 kts are possible.

Late Friday afternoon and evening, an increase in low-level
moisture should result in the arrival of widespread MVFR cigs.
Conditions should begin deteriorating at Waco as early as 21z and
at DFW area airports after 00z. Initially, cigs will likely be at
or above 2 kft, but they`ll quickly drop to around 1 kft during
the evening hours. Periods of IFR conditions may also occur, but
have not included any mention in the extended DFW TAF yet. In
addition to lowered cigs, some vsby-reducing mist or drizzle will
also be possible, although the greatest potential for these
conditions seemingly lies east of I-35 at this time. Prolonged
MVFR or even IFR conditions can be expected through much of
Saturday as well.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    55  47  68  57  71 /   0  10   5  20  30
Waco                52  45  68  56  71 /   0  20  10  20  50
Paris               50  42  61  54  66 /   0  20  20  20  60
Denton              56  45  67  53  70 /   0   5   5  10  30
McKinney            53  45  66  54  69 /   0  20  10  20  40
Dallas              55  47  67  56  70 /   0  20  10  20  40
Terrell             50  45  65  57  69 /   0  20  20  20  60
Corsicana           49  46  67  56  70 /   0  20  20  20  60
Temple              50  45  68  55  71 /   5  20  10  20  60
Mineral Wells       61  43  71  51  70 /   0   0   5   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

79/25


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