Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 211122
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
522 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST AREA BENEATH RIDGE AXIS TODAY...BUT SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY FOR TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED
AND BRIEF. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REGION RECEIVES LOTS OF SUN WITH
HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPS.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES
LANDFALL IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A MILD SW FLOW WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WESTERN VALLEY DRAINAGE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS INTO CENTRAL NV WITH 700MB WINDS
INCREASING TO SW40KTS IN NE UT-NW CO. CONVECTIVE STORMS AND SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THREATEN TO ADD TO THIS GUST POTENTIAL...BUT
MOST STORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BLOWING DUST WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT WORKS INTO CENTRAL UTAH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST PIECE OF THE TROUGH LIFTS INTO WYOMING
OVERNIGHT WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SWEEPS INTO FAR WESTERN
COLORADO BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE SUNRISE. BLOWING DUST EXPECTED TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY
SOMEWHAT UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE FRONTAL BAND. WITH 700MB TEMPS
LOWERING TO -6C ACROSS THE NORTH...SNOW LEVELS LOWER ONTO THE NW
COLORADO PLATEAU. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND LIMITED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY...THE SECOND PORTION OF THE TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS KEEPS WEST WINDS ALOFT BRISK AT
AROUND 25KTS AT 700MB THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS RANGE FROM
7KFT/9.5KFT NORTH/SOUTH BUT LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE NEW AIR MASS
WILL ALSO LIMIT SHOWERS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DROP 15 OR MORE
DEGREES FROM TUESDAY/S HIGHS.

FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA TO THE PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND OCCURS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE AGGRESSIVE GFS MODEL
SHOWING A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION FORMING OVER SRN UTAH BEFORE
REACHING SW COLORADO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SCENARIO BRINGS SNOW
BACK TO THE HIGH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THIS SYSTEM AS AN OPEN WAVE BUT SHOWS A PROMINENT VORT
CENTER SWEEPING ACROSS SW COLORADO SATURDAY EVENING. EITHER
SOLUTION DEPICTS ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL FORM OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY BETWEEN 18Z-
02Z TODAY. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED BUT A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE IMPACTING A MOUNTAIN TAF SITE WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/PF
AVIATION...PF



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