Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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717
FXUS65 KGJT 140950
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
250 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

DEEP MOISTURE (3 TO 3.5 G/KG AT 700 MB PER NAM) SPILLING OVER THE
WEST COAST RIDGE ARRIVES OVER THE ELKHEAD AND PARK RANGES EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL SPREAD INTO THE FLAT TOPS...GORE AND ELK
RANGES DURING THE DAY. THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE CARRIED BY NORTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEYOND 36 HOURS YIELDING SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. INITIALLY NAM80 DIVQ FIELDS SHOWED UPWARD
MID-LEVEL FORCING...BUT BEYOND THIS MORNING DYNAMIC FORCING
APPEARED LIMITED. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OF 25 TO 35 KTS
AT THE 7H LEVEL MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS
SATURATED. IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS FAVORED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHEN LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST AND 110 KT JET
NOSES OVER THE AREA. SNOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THOUGH DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE DROPS BELOW SATURATION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND EXPECT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHTER DURING THIS PERIOD. FORECAST APPEARS
ON TRACK WITH 6 TO 12 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE ELKHEAD AND PARK
RANGES WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE FLAT TOPS AND ELKS. CURRENT
HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD AND DON/T SEE ANY CALL FOR CHANGES AT THIS
POINT.

MOISTURE DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY IS EXCLUSIVE TO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SO EXPECT THERE WILL BE CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE
PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE. A BIT OF A DOWNTURN IN TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WITH CAA THOUGH NOT APPRECIABLE. IN CONTRAST...CLOUDS WILL
BRING MORE MODERATE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY ERODING MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...SENDING DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SNOW OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO BE WINDING DOWN WITH DRY WEATHER MOVING
BACK IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...PATTERN IS
BECOMING A BIT MORE ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY EARLY
THURSDAY. THIS OPEN WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND SHOWERY PRECIP TO THE VALLEYS. MODELS COMING
INTO BETTER TIMING AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVING
OUT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL START NUDGING POPS UP A BIT
THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
WITH GRADIENTS TIGHTENING UP ALONG THE DIVIDE AND TO OUR EAST WITH
LESS SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. ANOTHER FLAT RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD
BACK IN BEHIND THIS EXITING WAVE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUMPING A BIT MORE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
GOOD MIXING EXPECTED WITH THE WAVE LATE IN THE WEEK. SO A COOLER
START...THEN TEMPS JUMPING A BIT MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE...THEN DROPPING BACK AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT VERNAL THIS
MORNING. KASE WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AFTER 21Z DUE TO A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRINGING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STRONG NW WINDS AT AND ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL
WILL KEEP TURBULENCE ELEVATED AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. MOUNTAINS ACROSS NW COLORADO WILL BECOME PARTIALLY
OBSCURED BEGINNING AROUND 18Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR COZ005-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR COZ010.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGJT



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