Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGRB 050824
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
324 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

TROF OVER ERN NOAM WL EDGE EWD A BIT AND WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. MEANWHILE...UPR ANTICYCLONE WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WL
SHIFT FM THE DESERT SW TO THE SRN PLAINS. THE LARGE SCALE CHGS WL
RESULT IN A PATTERN WITH TROFFING INVOF BOTH COASTS...AND RIDGING
ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS. ONCE IN PLACE...THAT PATTERN WL PERSIST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD...WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION
PROBABLY OCCURRING NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT...PROBABLY RUNNING JUST A
LITTLE ABV NORMAL. THERE WL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PCPN...THOUGH THE PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR BREAKING OUT
OF THE RECENT DRY REGIME. PCPN AMNTS WL PROBABLY END UP BLO
NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD. RISING UPR HEIGHTS AND THE JET AXIS SHIFTG
E SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE STABLE ATM THAN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS...AND DRY WX. DISCOUNTED ANY PCPN IN THE MODELS OTHER THAN
KEEPING A CHC WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM ACRS THE FAR N/NW THU
AFTN.

850 MB TEMPS EDGING UPWARD SHOULD RESULT IN A LITTLE WARMING EACH
DAY...AND ADJUSTED MAXES ACCORDINGLY. THE EXCEPTION WAS THE
LAKESHORE...WHERE ELY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WL HOLD TEMPS
BACK SOME...ESP SINCE SOME COLDER WATER SEEMS TO HAVE UPWELLED
OVER WRN LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAYS WITH STG WLY WINDS LAST
WEEK.

AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE 2 BANDS OF CLDS ACRS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...TRENDED SKYCON DOWN A BIT FM PREV FCST. THAT FIT WITH
THE SLOWING IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FURTHER REDUCTIONS END UP
BEING NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

500MB RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. QUICK ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
UNITED STATES WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD.

TIMING OF PRECIPITATION COMES INTO PLAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE WRF MODEL DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
WIPES IT OUT. MEANWHILE...THE CANADIAN/ECMWF/GFS BRING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS THE QUICKEST
WHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE SLOWEST. THE ECMWF DOES APPEAR A TAD BIT
SLOWER TONIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN. SINCE THE ECMWF HAD GOOD
CONSISTENCY WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN...TRENDED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
ON FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

PATCHY FOG WAS ACRS THE N EARLY THIS MORNING...AND COULD REFORM
AGAIN TNGT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.