Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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970
FXUS63 KGRB 120902
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
302 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN NORTH
CENTRAL WI ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SHIFTING EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND CAUSING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO PUSH
INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA AND FAR NW WI. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING...BRINGING BRISK NW WINDS
AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. AS THE COLD NW WINDS
FLOW ACROSS WSTRN LAKE SUPERIOR...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER NC/FAR NE WI. WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS ARRIVING...DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION IN VILAS COUNTY...PERHAPS AN INCH OR
TWO THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. THE LAKE EFFECT
SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO SW WI...LOW-LEVEL WINDS TURN WEST...AND VERY DRY AIR AT
850 MB MOVES ACROSS WSTRN LK SUP.

WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BLOW ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH READINGS IN THE
-10 TO -15 F RANGE IN PARTS OF NC/C WI. STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
NW WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD TEMPS TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS
OF -20 TO -30 F OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...COLDEST IN OUR WSTRN
COUNTIES. HAVE MATCHED UP A START TIME OF 00Z/SAT WITH MY WESTERN
NEIGHBORS FOR NC/C WI...AND 06Z/SAT WITH MY SOUTHERN NEIGHBORS FOR
THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. THE HEADLINES WILL EXPIRE AT 15Z/SAT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL
DECREASING AMPITUDE OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.  AS
A RESULT...WILL SEE MODIFYING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE SEASONABLE
NORM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.  FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND LOW TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  AS FOR THE MODEL
PREFERENCE...THE GFS REMAINS STRONGEST WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH SUN-MON AND HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE NAM.  CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MUCH WEAKER SOLUTIONS OF THE
ECMWF/GEM.  WILL PUT MORE WEIGHT INTO THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS UNTIL A
MORE CONVINCING TREND DEVELOPS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING BEFORE QUICKLY
SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RAPIDLY TANK DURING THE
EVENING.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY THEY ARRIVE.  WILL
THEREFORE SIDE WITH THE COLDER GUIDANCE...SINCE IT DOES NOT TAKE
LONG FOR TEMPS TO TUMBLE.  WILL THEN SHOW A STEADY OR SLIGHT
INCREASE TREND OVERNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS ROLL IN.  CLOUDS WIL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE INCREASE ON SUNDAY WHEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE
REGION.  LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID-MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO THINKING
A 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL AT BEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO TRAILING SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO
THE REGION.  ANY ACCUMS LOOK RELATIVELY LIGHT.  MODEL SPREAD
INCREASES RAPIDLY THEREAFTER SO HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON ANY DETAILS
TUESDAY ONWARD.  MODELS APPEAR TO POINT TOWARDS A SHOT OF MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS REMAINED AT THE TAF SITES...CIGS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL BRING MVFR CIGS AT TIMES TO MUCH OF NORTH-
CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS VERY COLD AIR WILL FLOW OFF THE RELATIVELY
WARMER WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ON FRIDAY...SOME OF THE SNOW
SHOWER OR FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
KGRB/KATW/KMTW LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH MAY GUST TO
CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD CALM DOWN BY FRIDAY
EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR OUT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BITTER COLD EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR WIZ012-013-020>022-031-037>040-045-048>050-073-074.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR WIZ005-010-011-018-019-030-035-036.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI



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