Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 291734
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1234 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Cooler temperatures aloft today combined with strong daytime heating
of moist airmass should give way to scattered diurnally driven
convection across the region for this afternoon/evening. Would
expect the activity to diminish a few hours after sunset. Heading
into Tuesday upper level ridge begins to amplify over the Rockies
with a short wave trough aloft dropping southeast across the upper
Mississippi valley region. Once again strong daytime heating of
moist airmass should give way to afternoon convection on Tuesday but
we should witness a little more coverage with aid of weak upper
level trough axis. Thunderstorms chances will continue into Tuesday
night and Wednesday until southeast moving upper trough axis clears
the area by Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

GFS/ECMWF models are in decent agreement with surface front pushing
south of the area on Thursday/Friday with dry weather conditions and
slightly cooler air, as upper level ridging amplifies across the
central US. Meanwhile moisture plume over the high plains region
will become enhanced for Friday into the weekend, as strong south
winds transport richer moisture northward. The bulk of our coverage
area looks to remain dry this period, however we could see some
night time elevated storms affect central Kansas and locations north
Friday and Saturday nights. This scenario seems reasonable given
modest mid-level warm air advection on edge of elevated mix layer
targeting those areas. Daytime high will gradually warm for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Light and variable winds will become light and southeasterly
across the area this afternoon and evening before becoming light
and variable once again overnight. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop within a moist and uncapped
airmass across the area by early afternoon with much of the
activity remaining diurnally driven. Locations across central KS
may see some lingering activity tonight where subtle H7
convergence was progged within the moist plume evident on water
vapor imagery.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    88  69  87  69 /  30  20  40  40
Hutchinson      87  67  86  67 /  30  30  50  40
Newton          87  68  87  67 /  30  20  40  40
ElDorado        88  68  87  68 /  30  20  40  40
Winfield-KWLD   88  69  88  69 /  30  20  40  30
Russell         85  66  84  65 /  40  40  50  50
Great Bend      85  66  84  65 /  40  40  50  50
Salina          88  68  87  68 /  30  30  50  40
McPherson       87  67  87  67 /  30  30  50  40
Coffeyville     90  69  90  70 /  40  20  30  20
Chanute         88  69  88  69 /  30  20  30  20
Iola            88  69  87  69 /  30  20  30  20
Parsons-KPPF    90  69  88  70 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...MWM



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