Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 131757
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1257 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

DURING THE NIGHT A RATHER WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM ALONG THE IOWA
MISSOURI BORDER THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AS
WAS EXPECTED THE PAST 2 NIGHTS...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG
THE FRONT WHERE RICH MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED TO POOL ALL ALONG THE ENTIRE
STRETCH OF THE FRONT. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEEN OCCURRING IN PRIMARILY
2 AREAS: FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TO EXTREME NORTHERN MISSOURI &
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...BUT THUNDERSTORMS THEN DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS FROM JUST NW OF HUTCHINSON TO AROUND ABILENE. IN BROAD MOONLIGHT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KANSAS HOVERED ~80
DEGREES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH INTO SRN KS AT THIS TIME.
SOME POST FRONTAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL KS.  EXPECT THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY TO
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTH AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.  BUT IT
COULD STILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  NOT ALOT OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
FOR AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER KEEPING MOST OF
THE AREA CAPPED EVEN WITH THE WEAK CONVERGENCE. WILL LEAVE SOME LOW
POPS IN FOR SECTIONS SE OF THE KS TURNPIKE...WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP.  COULD ALSO SEE SOME
ELEVATED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TRY TO DEVELOP OVER THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS GENERALLY EAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE AS FN-CONVERGENCE INCREASES OVER SE KS UNTIL AROUND 06Z.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

TODAY-MON NIGHT:
THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS THUNDERSTORM-RELATED. DURING THE NIGHT...AN INTENSE
CYCLONE HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER THE MANITOBA/NW ONTARIO BORDER. THIS
CREATURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO GYRATE OVER ONTARIO TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
COMPACT UPPER-DECK SHORTWAVE EXTENDING STRAIGHT W FROM THE INTENSE UPPER
CYCLONE WILL SURGE S/SE FROM SASKATCHEWAN & MANITOBA ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WOULD PUSH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT SE ACROSS SOUTH &
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY THEN INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT & MON. THE BEST
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKEWISE SLOWLY SHIFT S/SE FROM KANSAS TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY & TONIGHT BUT WITH THE BEST MID-UPPER DYNAMICS
STILL OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS LIFT OVER THE KS NEIGHBORHOOD REMAINS
FEEBLE & AS SUCH THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE SCATTERED AT BEST. AS THE STRONG
UPPER-DECK WAVE SURGES S THEN SE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY A 2ND &
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SE ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD MON/MON NIGHT.
THE MORE DYNAMIC PATTERN WOULD TRANSLATE INTO MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON MON & WITH THE POWERFUL NE-SW ORIENTED
MID-UPPER WAVE CONTINUING TO SURGE SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES & MID-MS
VALLEY MON NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKEWISE SURGE SE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD S OVER THE REGION MON NIGHT WITH THE
STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS & MS VALLEY.

TUE & TUE NIGHT:
A 2ND BUT WEAKER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS STILL SCHEDULED TO PUSH SE FROM
THE EASTERN ROCKIES TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER EASTERN COLORADO WOULD INDUCE MOISTENING SE LOWER-DECK FLOW TO
SPREAD NE FROM TX TO THE WESTERN PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS & SPREAD SLOWLY E ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
ON TUE WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING E OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD OF
KANSAS TUE NIGHT. COOL WEATHER WOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA WITH
LOWS ~55F LIKELY ACROSS KICT COUNTRY TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

WED-THU:
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO PUSH S OVER THE NM/TX BORDER
WED & WED NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY OVER THE SW HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WED WITH THUNDERSTORMS ENDING IN A N-S MANNER
WED NIGHT & THU.

THU NIGHT-SAT:
STILL ANTICIPATE NICE WEATHER FOR THE NEIGHBORHOOD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK-WEEK. THE NEXT SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE SAT NIGHT
WHEN THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS ALMOST DUE S FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH INTO EXTREME SRN KS AT
THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS WEAK SFC FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO
NRN OK AS THE LATE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SEEING SOME POST FRONTAL
MVFR CIGS NEAR KHUT AND KSLN...BUT CURRENT AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
CONTINUES TO ERODE THIS DECK...WITH SOME VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO MVFR CLOUD DECK GROUP FOR KHUT FOR A
FEW HOURS UNTIL THIS CLOUD DECK COMPLETELY ERODES.

SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY NOTED TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT...
WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN ELEVATED SHOWER CHANCE.  BUT CHANCES OF THIS
LOOK SLIM...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF VCTS OR VCSH FOR
NOW.

THE LAST TAF CONCERN WILL BE THE VARIABLE WIND SLOWLY SHIFTING TO
THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MON
FOR CENTRAL KS....AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON MON AFTERNOON.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    90  70  89  59 /  40  20  30  10
HUTCHINSON      89  69  89  57 /  40  20  30  10
NEWTON          89  68  87  55 /  40  20  40  10
ELDORADO        90  68  88  56 /  40  20  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  89  59 /  30  30  30  10
RUSSELL         89  67  85  55 /  20  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      88  67  87  55 /  30  10  20  10
SALINA          91  69  88  56 /  20  10  20  10
MCPHERSON       90  68  88  56 /  40  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     96  70  88  59 /  30  30  50  10
CHANUTE         91  69  87  57 /  30  30  50  10
IOLA            90  69  87  56 /  40  30  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    94  70  88  58 /  30  30  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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