Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 231955
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
355 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WX NIL CONTINUES IN SHORT TERM WITH RIDGING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER
REGION AS WEST COAST TROUGH DIGS IN. CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT 4-5 DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD. SOME PATCHY FOG/HZ
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN LOW LYING RURAL AREAS BUT NOT WORTH MENTION IN
GRIDS AT THIS POINT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY IN
TERMS OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S...EXCEPT FOR LOW 70S
NEAR THE LAKESHORE AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 14C.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

A VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

CUT OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
APPROACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY INGESTED INTO MORE
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. BROAD LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NORTHEAST CONUS WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW TRAJECTORY...AND OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
RETURN OF NOTE WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE
CONFINED WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. ONLY EXPECTED EFFECT FOR
LOCAL AREA MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF SLIGHT
RETROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX LATE THIS WEEK WHILE A STABLE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE RIDGE
PATTERN SETS UP. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A BROAD LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH
THE BULK OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. 12Z EC DOES SUGGEST SOME BETTER
PHASING WITH SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF SOUTHWEST CONUS
WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE KICKING OUT OF WESTERN CONUS TROUGH BY TUESDAY
...BUT WILL LEAVE DAY 7 DRY AT THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND
LARGE MODEL DISCREPANCIES BY THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUED VFR THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. WX NIL.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...LEWIS


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