Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
FXUS61 KLWX 301905
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
305 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016
A weak cold front will enter the region from the west tonight and
stall near or just south of the area on Tuesday. Another cold front
will move in from the north Tuesday night and Wednesday, then also
stall out. A third cold front will push in from the west Thursday
night and Friday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak cold front is currently analyzed to be located in western
Pennsylvania and West Virginia and slowly moving east. The
remnants of Bonnie are near the South Carolina coast and are
slowly moving northeast. A very weak trough accompanies the cold
front aloft. This trough has kept rain streaming northeast into
far southern Maryland through the day but elsewhere..drier air
from the west has pushed in.
Tonight, the passing front and trough should work to generate some
showers and thunderstorms in our western zones (the mountains) and
then push them eastward this evening towards the I-95 corridor.
However...instability is meager and forcing is not strong...so
think most of the activity will probably end up dying out before
reaching the metro area. There can still be some spotty home-grown
thundershowers...but overall not that bad of an end to the holiday
Overnight...lingering moisture and light winds will likely to
combine to create patchy fog. Not sure how widespread or dense it
might be but some guidance suggests we could approach dense fog in
spots. Will need to monitor.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Moisture from Bonnie will linger not far to the south for the next
few days...but forcing will be weak. A backdoor front will try to
come southward Tuesday night and Wednesday which will try to
suppress the moisture further south and cool our area a bit.
Temperatures will be warmest Tuesday ahead of this front with some
sun...then drop a few degrees each Wednesday and Thursday. Lingering
moisture and some sun-fueled instability...not to mention
potential forcing of the stalling boundary itself...will still try
to get some spotty showers and thunderstorms going each of the
next few days...but coverage does not look high. More pop-up than
anything organized. Things get a little more interesting late
Thursday as the next front approaches but instability still looks
relatively meager. Highs will stay in the 80s with lows mostly in
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak cold front, associated with surface low well to our north
over Canada, will move through the area during the day Friday
bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms to much of the
Model divergence increases by next weekend, as long term guidance
differs with position/strength of mid and upper level trough digging
into the NE. Will maintain low-end pops for the possibility of
unsettled conditions next weekend into early next week, with best
shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday into Monday as cold front
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR at present. Spotty showers/t-storms likely to form this
afternoon and move east this eve with weak front. Could go briefly
MVFR or even IFR at any terminal but most likely MRB if anywhere.
Patchy fog is a concern tonight...again, MRB most likely to go
down to IFR but its possible at the other terminals as well.
Spotty shower/storms again the next few days but coverage looks
Cold front moves through the area late Thursday into the
day Friday, with a scattered showers and thunderstorms expected
across much of the area.
Confidence in the forecast going into the weekend remains low as
upper level trough digs into the Northeast.
Winds below SCA thru the period outside of any
thunderstorms...though will need to watch possible surge behind
backdoor front Tuesday night into Wednesday. Storms may impact
waters over each of the next several days but odds are not great
after this evening.
Thunderstorm chances will be the main concern over the waters
Friday (and perhaps into next weekend).