Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 170726
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
326 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-WEST AND
EXTENDS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

CLEAR AND NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE 50S AND NEAR 40 ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE VA HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. A FEW
CLOUDS MAY CLIP THE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING AS CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MOVES NEAR THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND FCST MAX TEMPS WILL REACH
THE 60S IN THE MTNS TO THE LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS
TONIGHT AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
THIS EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE NRN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF
THIS AIR MASS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. NRLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT CROSSES BY THURSDAY EVENING. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT AND LACK OF MOISTURE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AND BECOMES ONSHORE
DOMINATE FOR FRIDAY. WHILE OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS DRY...HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FEED AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM CYCLONIC TO ANTICYCLONIC OVERHEAD FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW LEVELS RESPONSE WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD WARM INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S. TRAILING STRONGER COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
GREAT LAKES LOW WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...SLOWING FOR A BIT MONDAY AHEAD OF SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE IN UPPER TROUGH. SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH THIS
FRONT...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. AUTUMN-LIKE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK AS H85
TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. MID-ATLANTIC
SITS IN TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH ONSHORE FLOW AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. MVFR/IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT CHO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY. NRLY WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY...AND
WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH AREAS
OF LOWER CIGS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH A
WIND SHIFT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. N-NE
WINDS 10-15 KTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING MAINLY
SOUTH OF DRUM PT ON THE BAY AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS AS HIGH
PRSESURE APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL RELAX BY THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WILL BRING
ONSHORE WINDS AND POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...AEB
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...HAS/AEB
MARINE...HAS/AEB







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