Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 290626
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
126 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the period with west winds
becoming northwesterly and gusty behind a cold front due by 18Z.
Winds diminish again after 00Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 637 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

UPDATE...
Update for High Wind Warning.

DISCUSSION...
High based showers in dry air along a Pacific front producing
numerous high wind gusts behind the dryline. Have issued a large
high wind warning for SE NM down to the Rio Grande. May need to
expand this warning across the Permian Basin if the trend
continues.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Active weather pattern is expected through this evening as a
strong upper level storm system tracks through New Mexico. Strong
lift and instability ahead of the upper low and dryline/cold front
will produce thunderstorms across portions of southeast New Mexico
near the upper low, and especially across the central and eastern
portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos ahead of the
dryline/cold front. Some of the storms will be severe the remainder
of this afternoon and this evening in the eastern Permian Basin
ahead of the dryline and cold front as strong instability and lift
interact with a strongly sheared atmosphere. In addition, winds
will increase significantly across the mountains and the plains
immediate adjacent to the mountains behind a dryline surge. Will
continue the High Wind Warning through 8 pm MDT for the Guadalupe
Mountains and the Wind Advisory for the southeast New Mexico
Plains, Upper Trans Pecos, Van Horn Highway 54 Corridor, Davis
Mountains and Marfa Plateau.

Conditions should improve significantly after midnight as the dry
line/cold front moves into central texas and winds diminish with
nocturnal cooling.

The upper low is forecast to track slowly across the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles on Wednesday. Much cooler and below normal
temperatures are expected across southeast New Mexico and much
of west Texas behind the cold front. There will also be a chance
of wraparound cyclonic showers across southeast New Mexico and the
northern and central Permian Basin associated with the upper low.
It will be windy again across the region and Wind Advisories will
probably be needed across portions of the forecast area.

Beyond Wednesday above normal temperatures are expected to resume
again. Another Pacific storm system will approach the region
Friday and will only slowly move through the forecast area
Saturday and Sunday. There are model differences in the track and
intensity of this upper low. However it appears that the bulk of
the precipitation with this system will track east of the forecast
area. At this time it appears that winds will be the main concerns
with this system with breezy to windy conditions developing.

Another system is forecast to track across the central or southern
Plains early to the middle of next week. This system also looks
like it will be mainly a wind producer as well.

FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Red Flag Warning through mid evening along and
west of a Seminole to Fort Stockton line. As an upper level storm
system approaches New Mexico late today the associated surface dryline
is sharpening. 20 foot winds of 20 mph or greater are beginning to
materialize in the warning area as the gradient increases. Min rh/s
are a bit more problematic as some areas are currently struggling
to reach 15 percent or less. Will error on the side of caution
and continue the Red Flag Warning due to high temperatures 5-10
degrees above normal and fuels dry enough for high to very high
fire danger. In addition virga showers and dry lightning can not
be ruled out in the Warning area behind the dryline through early
this evening near the upper low.

Mainly poor to fair recovery is expected tonight. Cooler and more
moist conditions are expected tomorrow behind the cold front
across much of the region despite windy conditions expected. The
exceptions could be portions of the Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend,
Presidio Valley. Later shifts will need to monitor these areas
for a possible Red Flag Warning or Fire Danger Statement.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  77  51  87 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       42  80  48  86 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         51  83  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  46  81  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 43  72  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  75  47  82 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          37  76  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  77  52  88 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         45  78  52  88 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           44  80  49  89 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10


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