Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 242006
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
306 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...JUST SOME BRIEF COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
SHOULD SEE ANY LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS IN THE COLD ADVECTION EXIT
DURING THE NIGHT...BUT EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...SO WILL LET REMAINING WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.
MAV TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK REASONABLE SO WILL NOT STRAY FAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...AT THIS POINT THE
MOST EXCITEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM PERIODS WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE ATLANTIC STARTS TO
MAKE IT`S WAY NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. IT SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO HAVE MOISTURE WRAP AROUND AND INVADE THE AREA AS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. CURRENTLY THINK THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS HAVE
THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE SNOW. AREAS TOWARDS THE VALLEY WOULD LIKELY
SEE A COLD RAIN WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE BEST
TIME FRAME FOR PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT HAVE SNOWFALL TOTALS
THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN A TRACE TO 2 INCHES IN THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS
AND HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS GETTING AROUND 3 INCHES.

QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS AND CONTINUES TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO
THE AREA. EARLY THURSDAY/LATE WEDNESDAY SOME OF THE MODELS WANT TO
START TO DRY OUT THE MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHILE OTHERS WANT
TO KEEP IT MOIST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS THE TIME DRAWS
CLOSER AS IT COULD HELP SOME LOCATIONS PICK UP ANOTHER QUICK BOUT OF
SNOW IF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES ARE STILL MOIST COME THURSDAY
MORNING.

WE TAKE A BREAK FOR A LITTLE WHILE AS TEMPS SLOWLY BEGIN TO CLIMB
BEFORE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT AT PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS WANT TO
BRING IN A FRONT AND STALL IT OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY.
HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THEY ARE STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON WHERE
THIS COULD OCCUR. IF THIS DOES COME TO PASS PLACES NORTH OF THE
FRONT COULD BE IN STORE FOR SOME STEADY RAIN TOWARDS THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             38  55  36  52 /   0  10  30  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  53  35  50 /  10   0  40  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       36  52  36  50 /  10   0  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  54  34  46 /  10   0  60  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW/ABM



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