Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 261933
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
333 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

.SHORT TERM (This Afternoon through Tuesday)...
Cold front now moving into East Tennessee. Just out of ahead of this
front, showers and storms have developed and will continue to move
across our area into the evening hours. The strongest showers and
storms will move through from now through the rest of the afternoon.
Some of these storms may produce locally heavy downpours and brief
strong gusty winds. Expecting majority of the storms to stay well
below severe limits. Showers and storms will weaken by early evening
and will further do so by sunset. The bulk of the precipitation
should be through our area by around 8 PM. Afterwards, just light
and spotty showers expected until the front pushes further east. Low-
level moisture hangs in behind the front and allows for mostly
cloudy skies overnight, which will help to keep our temperatures
several degrees warmer than previously forecast. Lows tonight will
be in the mid 50s north to lower 60s south.

Clouds eventually begin to clear later tomorrow morning. Upper
trough lagging behind front quite a bit so we won`t see any real
push of colder and drier until tomorrow afternoon. Highs tomorrow
will be several degrees cooler. Highs will range from the low-to-mid
70s north to near 80 south.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Monday)...
Upper low over the Northern Great Lakes Tuesday night will
drop southeast over Ohio/Indiana by Wednesday night and then even
further south over Kentucky/West Virgina/SW Virginia on Thursday
night. Any model disagreement on strength and position of the low
through Friday morning is starting to become settled. ECMWF/GFS/NAM
starting to align in handling of this system with GFS being most
consistent and therefore most favored of the three.

With lower thickness values and increased cloud cover associated
with the low...max/min temperatures should get several degrees
below normal Thursday through Saturday before starting to recover
Sunday and Monday. Additionally, although moisture is limited with
this system, steep cold pool lapse rates... particularly over the
northeastern portions of the area should help to squeeze out some
showery precipitation for Thursday and Friday.

By the weekend, this low begins to lift out and is recaptured by
the westerlies as a broad ridge of high pressure begins to build
back into the area by Monday with temperatures rebounding to normal
or slightly above.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             64  81  53  80 /  40  10  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  61  78  52  77 /  50  10  10  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       60  79  51  77 /  40  10  10  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              60  75  47  76 /  70  20  10  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

SR/EJH


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