Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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352
FXUS64 KMRX 061919
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
319 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES HAVE PUSHED TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S AS OF 3 PM.
THESE VALUES ARE AROUND 5-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WHEN THE
AREA WAS DIRECTLY UNDER THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY
HAS A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ACROSS NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THESE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING DUE
TO THE CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE
BEHIND THE EXITING CLOSED UPPER LOW. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL NOT LAST
MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT EXPERIENCE
ENOUGH PRECIPITATION TO MEASURE.

FOR TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW DEPARTURE TO THE
NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP DOWN
INTO THE 40S. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TOMORROW WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH WESTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL WARM WELL IN THE
70S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE
DAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. DUE TO THIS...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA LATE IN THE DAY BUT EXPECT THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION.

.LONG TERM(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

OVERALL...WILL BE IN AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR TO SLIGHT ABOVE NORMS.
THROUGH MONDAY...A FRONT STALLED TO OUR NORTH WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR OCCASIONAL CONVECTION AS SHORT WAVES RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN LOCATIONS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL SEE A SERIES OF
FRONTS/SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION PROVIDING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH PERIOD. CHANCES DECREASE BY FRIDAY
AS THE SYSTEMS BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             49  82  59  85 /   0   0  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  48  80  58  81 /   0  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       48  80  58  81 /   0  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              45  75  56  76 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

MA/MJB



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