Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 221901 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
301 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
A QUIET AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS AS A SURFACE HIGH HAS SETTLED IN. THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND
COOL/DRY POST FRONTAL AIR HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...BUT GOOD
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE HIGH TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW RH VALUES IN THE 30S AND 40S HAVE THIS
DAY FEELING MORE LIKE THE FALL THAN THE LATE SPRING. THE MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...AND LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START...A WIND
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO KICK OFF
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY IN
THE EXTENDED FOR QUIET AND CALM WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
THEN TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE PATTERN AS A FRONT AND A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES MOVE IN DURING THE REST OF THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME.
THIS PATTERN SETS UP SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL CARRY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH PERIOD. TIMING OF EACH WAVE
DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME BUT BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             53  83  60  84 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  51  81  58  83 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       51  81  58  83 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              46  78  55  81 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/MJB


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