Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 241955
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
305 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer weather returns with temperatures climbing well above normal
this weekend. Showers and Thunderstorms Sunday/Sunday night, and
again late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM Friday...

Mainly quiet in the warm sector tonight and much of tomorrow.
There will be intervals of clouds through the period,
particularly late tonight and tomorrow morning. For temps, we
rolled on the high side of guidance tonight and tomorrow which
was well clustered to begin with. We may hit 80 along and south
of the I64 corridor if we can get enough sun in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 305 PM Friday...

A system will bring a band of showers and possibly thunderstorms
across the area on Sunday. Depending on the timing of the band and
how much recovery time occurs in the western counties, could see
some additional convection form late in the day.

The region stays in the warm sector as this system moves off to the
northeast, allowing for mild weather to continue.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 305 PM Friday...

Another system will provide showers and possibly thunderstorms
Monday night and Tuesday. Behind a weak cold front, slightly cooler
but mild temperatures can be expected for mid week.

Models then show another system for the end of the week, but there
are differences in the timing and placement of this system, leading
to lower confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 630 AM Friday...

VFR through the period with some mid and high clouds in the warm
sector. Generally light southwest flow tonight becoming
southerly on Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
   M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...

Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Sunday/Sunday night, and again
Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30



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