Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 231804
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
204 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong cold front and low pressure system cross this evening
and tonight. Much cooler weather by midweek. Another cold front
next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1150 AM Monday...

No significant changes were necessary to the previous forecast.
Cold frontal boundary at 1545Z across central KY, and pushing
eastward, with area of heavier rain evident on radar. Front will
push east across the CWA this afternoon and evening, exiting to
the CWA later tonight. Expect an uptick in precipitation this
afternoon and evening as it does so, along with continued gusty
winds.

Later tonight, general drying trend as front exits to the east
of the area. Will still be some lingering showers, and plenty of
cloud cover in the overnight hours

A chance for showers, and cooler weather is expected on Tuesday,
as an upper low/trough pushes into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

Still a few showers possible late Tuesday night and on
Wednesday, particularly across the north, as an upper trough
develops and crosses the region. This will usher in cooler air,
with the possibility of a few flakes across the higher terrain,
although not a significant threat of snow, due to overall lack
of moisture/good crystal growth. Temperatures Thursday morning
will easily dip into the mid 30s for much of the lowlands,
possibly warranting the need for frost advisories. Will keep a
mention in the HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 205 PM Monday...

High pressure with dry conditions Thursday and Friday. Another
cold front will move into the region over the weekend,
providing yet another chance for rain showers. Behind the front,
much cooler air, with the possibility of rain and snow showers
across the higher terrain, and perhaps, a few flakes across some
lowland locations.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM Monday...

A strong cold front will cross late today. Ahead of the front,
clouds and precipitation will be on the increase driven by
strong southeasterly flow. Winds at 850mb will be increasing to
50-60kts by this afternoon, and have included gusty conditions
in each TAF. Strongest surface winds will be at higher elevation
terminals.

Otherwise, expect widespread MVFR and local IFR conditions in
rain.

After 00Z, gradual drying trend from west to east, but
widespread MVFR and local IFR cigs will linger through at least
12-14Z. After 14Z, some improvement to low VFR, although areas
of MVFR will persist.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Less widespread MVFR and IFR conditions may
occur tonight than currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    M    M    L    H    M    L    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    L    M    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    M    L    M    H    M    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    L    M    L    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
River valley IFR fog possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings if
frost does not occur.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...SL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.