Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 020327
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1127 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSTABLE WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UNSETTLED INTO TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES. LARGE UPPER TROUGH
BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1130 PM UPDATE...
HAVE LOWERED POP ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN
INCREASED IT AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT AS FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO THAT REGION. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

1030 PM UPDATE...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WANED
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING...AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLOODING APPEAR TO BE OVER. BOTH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAVE BEEN CANCELED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...NEAREST THE FRONT
AND WAVE MOVING ALONG IT...AN EVEN FARTHER NORTHWARD TREND NOTED
WITH THIS LATE THIS EVENING.

730 PM UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS STRONGEST...HEAVIEST AND MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF WARNING AREA...WHERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 134
REMAINS IN EFFECT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE A BIT WITH THE
SUNSET AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO.

ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SET UP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO INTO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL CROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCN...
BREAKS IN CLOUDS OFFER A CHANCE TO DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.

LIS < 4 AND CAPE > 1000 J/KG AND EVEN UP TO 2000 J/KG IN SOME
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A ROUND OF STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN...POSING A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...AND A SMALL
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND AND/OR HAIL. THE MAIN CONCERN IS STORMS
TRAIPSING ACROSS AREAS ALREADY HARD HIT BY LAST NIGHTS RAIN. SO
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS WE GET A LITTLE BREAK IN THE
WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT...WITH A SURFACE WAVE ALONG IT...EXITS TO THE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
LOBE OF VORTICITY CROSS. SHOULD GET A MAINLY DRY PERIOD TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINIMAL
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
LOW LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND SO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING IT OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT DID UNDERCUT
THEM A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. MAY EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHERN WV THIS PERIOD. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
IMPACTING SOUTHERN WV AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THESE WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING.

A LINE OF SH0OWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO
THE FRONT...WILL IMPACT PKB THIS EVENING AND CKB AND PERHAPS EKN
OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DIRECTLY IMPACT AN AIRPORT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...AND THEN SOME MVFR MIST OVERNIGHT...AND MVFR STRATOCU
MONDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL IN THE AREA.

SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
SW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD VARY. HEAVIER SHOWERS SHOULD PRODUCE IFR...BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE TIMING TO PUT IN TAF EXCEPT FIRST HOUR CRW AND BKW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 05/02/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...JW/MPK
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM


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