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000
FXUS61 KRLX 210744
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
344 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIG QUESTION IS HOW WILL THE COMPLEX OVER IL/IN AFFECT OUR REGION
TODAY. NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE
COMPLEX...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MESO NAM AND SOME OTHER MODELS
SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING OFF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS COMPLEX
AND MOVING EITHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...OR INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BASED ON THE MESO MODELS...WILL LOWER POPS
THIS MORNING...BUT RAISE POPS IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. GFS MOS
LOOKS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS TODAY...SO WENT CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND HUMID
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS HIGH AS ON TUESDAY...DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...AND
PRECIPITATION.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PUSHES CLOSER TO THE AREA. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. STILL LOOKING LIKE THERE COULD BE SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...EASTERN
KY...AND WV COUNTIES NEAR TO THE OHIO RIVER AS GOOD UPPER
DYNAMICS...INSTABILITY...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30+ KTS WILL EXIST.
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH
FZLVS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 11K FEET. COLD FRONT WILL END UP
SOMEWHERE ALONG/NEAR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.

UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...KEEPING A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY....MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY.  ECMWF
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
LEFT THESE CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED IN VALLEYS IN AND JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY. FURTHER WEST AND ON
HILLTOPS...WINDS SHOULD PREVENT THE DENSE FOG. CUMULUS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MODERATE WITH FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG DENSITY AND COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 05/21/13
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...RPY