Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 232325
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
725 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier under high pressure into the weekend. Unsettled
weather returns next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 435 PM Wednesday...Removed any mention of showers from the
forecast this afternoon and evening as much drier air aloft
pushes in with high pressure. Also, bumped wind speeds up just a
bit until sunset, as we should decouple shortly after 0Z
Tonight.

As of 200 PM Wednesday...

Back into a fog pattern with high pressure building and cool and
dry air continuing to filter in after a cold frontal passage.
Winds will be relatively light. Not much else going on.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 PM Wednesday...

No significant changes necessary to the short term period. Models in
good agreement with high pressure in control, with warm sunny days
and cool foggy nights/mornings. Could see a few showers or possibly
even an isolated thunderstorm across the higher terrain Saturday
as the high pressure shifts eastward and the flow becomes more
southeasterly. High temps during the period look to range in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 210 PM Wednesday...

Still looking at a chance for showers and thunderstorms
particularly in the afternoon hours across the higher terrain as
southeasterly flow continues. Weather to become more unsettled
early next week, as an upper trough moves east into the region,
with showers and thunderstorms, particularly during peak heating
hours.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 720 AM Wednesday...

High pressure continues to push into the region tonight. With
the loss of heating we will see clouds dissipate and most sites
will remain clear through the night. The clear skies combined
with weak winds will make for perfect conditions for radiation
fog overnight. Valley fog could become locally dense in some
areas. Bring VLIFR in the soonest at EKN and all other sites
other will see VLIFR likely after 06Z. Have kept fog out of BKW
for now, but still some uncertainty there and there is some
concern with the weak northerly flow that they could get some
restrictions before daybreak.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of river valley fog
overnight into Thursday morning will likely vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
River valley fog possible each morning through the weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/SL
NEAR TERM...JW/MPK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MPK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.