Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 280144
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
942 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND IN
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL ALSO TRY TO BETTER TIME THE
CLEARING FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...LOWERING SKY COVER IN THAT
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGHOUT, EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SNOW ABOVE 3500 FT.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. H850 AIR BEHIND FRONT -2 TO -4 C WILL HAVE
ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES, BEFORE ENDING DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. USED CONSENSUS GUID THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATE WEEK
REGARDING HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN GETS. AFTER A WARMING TREND
INTO MIDWEEK...STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED LATE WEEK...WITH THE WEEKEND
SHAPING UP TO BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN. SO THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE
ROLLS ON.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRATUS DECK CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE DECK WILL GENERALLY BE VFR OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME MVFR AT MOUNTAIN AIRPORTS. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...WITH MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT PROVIDING SOME CLEARING IN OH...KY...AND WESTERN WV.
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AND
LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT CLOUD AND SNOW RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 03/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY










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