Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 310006
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
806 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID THIS AFTERNOON IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSSINGS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
745 PM UPDATE...
TRIMMED BACK POPS THIS EVENING E OF OH RIVER PER LATEST HRRR/RUC
RUNS. STILL APPEARS NE KY AND ESPECIALLY SE OH WILL BE IN THE
CROSS-HAIRS FOR SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL VORT MAXES
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION. ONE OF THESE MAY PUSH THE SHRA/TSRA
INTO THE LOWLANDS BETWEEN 09-12Z AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR. WITH
SOMEWHAT TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED AND PWATS CLIMBING OVER 2
INCHES...DOWNPOURS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET AND EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND HOW EVERYTHING BEGINS TO
EVOLVE BUT DO NO ANTICIPATE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SE OH
ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND ALONG THE IN AND
OH BORDER. EVENTUALLY...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVER SOUTHEAST OH AND
WV TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS SPREADING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT. YET ANOTHER DESCENT SHORTWAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SEEN ON PWATS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. SFC BASED
CAPE INCREASES AS WELL. BELIEVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BRIEF
TONIGHT...AND STRONGER IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ON SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD PER MOISTURE AND
SOME TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TONIGHT UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLING SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY GO ALONG WITH LATEST BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD BE PUSHING
E/NE-WARD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE OUTSET OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD 00Z
MON. THIS IS ABOUT THREE OR SO HOURS SLOWER VERSUS PREV MODEL RUNS
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. PWATS OF 2-IN PLUS ALSO ACCOMPANYING...AND
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH
REPETITIVE TRAINING. IN COLLAB WITH NEAR-TERM FORECASTER AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
IN THE HWO FOR NOW. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED PRECIP
TO BE EXITING THE NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME AND
OVERALL...STILL ANTICIPATE A GENERAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF PRECIP BUT
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY STILL POSSIBLE SHOULD TRAINING OCCUR.

NO WHOLESALE CHANGES MADE TO LABOR DAY FORECAST FROM PREV FCST. AREA
STILL UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AND WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING...WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY AFTERNOON SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE
WITH THE MID CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. MID 80S FOR THE
LOWLANDS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...BUT WITH MORE SUN MAY SEE SOME
UPPER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT REMAINS WARM AND TRANQUIL...BUT ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING S/W TROUGH IN THE
MEAN FLOW ALOFT. BROUGHT IN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
BY THE 15Z-18Z TIME FRAME WITH THESE FEATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT
WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH
SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS SE OH BUT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS UNTIL
AFTER 06Z...WHEN A MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES FROM
THE SW. AS SUCH...HAVE SOME MVFR SHRA IN KHTS/KPKB/KCRW TAF SITES
WITH SOME PROB30 GROUPS INCORPORATED TO HANDLE TSRA POSSIBILITY.
A BRIEF LULL LASTING UNTIL PERHAPS LATE MORNING FOR MOST OF THE
TAF SITES...WITH SHRA/TSRA CONT FOR SE OH. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MVFR
STRATUS GENERALLY NW OF OH RIVER BUT MAY AFFECT KHTS/KPKB. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW BY 18Z WITH ALL TERMINALS
CODED UP WITH MVFR CONVECTION WITH PROB30 IFR GROUPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 08/31/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...30








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