Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 251927
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
309 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front moves into the region and stalls tonight. The front
dissipates over the area...leaving showers and storms possible.
Another system is slated for the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cold front to move through the region this afternoon and this
evening. Plenty of instability out ahead of the front and with a
very soupy airmass. Storms will continue to fire along this front
and could produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. The front is
expected to stall over our southern portion of the CWA. Storms are
expected to continue over that area overnight. Some fog may
develop over those areas that receive rain towards daybreak.

The chance of showers will linger throughout the day...especially
near the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A frontal boundary will wash out over of the area...leaving plenty
of moisture. This will allow for showers and thunderstorms on
Wednesday...more numerous in the afternoon and evening hours.

Models then showing a feature moving in on Thursday or Friday.
Considerable timing differences between the models with this
feature...so stayed fairly generic with pops.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Used a blend of the ECENS mean...NAEFS mean...AND GEFS mean.
Weighted a bit more toward the ECENS mean than the others. This
would leave the area in the warm sector with plenty of moisture for
Friday and Saturday. A cold front would then push into the area
Sunday. Still questionable if this front would push south of the
area or not for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold front,soupy airmass and heating will continue to fire storms
throughout the afternoon. This front will continue to move through
the area this afternoon and into the evening stalling over the
southern portion of area tonight and lingering through Tuesday.
VFR conditions will quickly and briefly go to MVFR/IFR cigs and
brief gusty winds in Thunderstorms. Currently a line of
thunderstorms from PKB-HTS-JKL will continue to move ESE and be
over those TAF sites between 18Z-20z. Then over the rest of the
TAF sites the rest of the afternoon and into evening hours.

Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms will persists into the
overnight hours with fog forming just between 09z-12z.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening may vary. Timing of Fog formation may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Early morning IFR fog possible into mid week depending on lingering
clouds. Brief IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms every
afternoon and evening.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>029.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JS


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