Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
FXUS64 KSHV 262011
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
311 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017
Mid-level shortwave to move into west-central Arkansas tonight
allowing for sufficient instability to support strong to severe
convection mainly along the I-30 corridor. Moisture, however, a
key ingredient in convective development is still lacking.
Surface dewpoints in the lower 50s across this area raises some
questions on whether moisture could recover quickly enough to
support ongoing deep layer convection. Will continue monitoring
south- central OK and north Texas for persistent convection along
with low-level moisture advection throughout the evening.
According to rapid refresh guidance, convection is forecast to
move into McCurtain county and northeast Texas just before
midnight and continue through around 3 AM. Most of the convection
will remain north of Interstate 20. Damaging winds expected to be
the main threat.
Weak frontal boundary that will be the trigger for overnight
convection will swing east across the region on Monday bringing a
chance of showers and thunderstorms to the ArkLaTex. Front is
forecast to linger south of Interstate 20 through Tuesday allowing
for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Front
to lift north on Wednesday as a surface low deepens across the
Texas Panhandle. Pressure gradient to increase areawide with south
winds possibly approaching Lake Wind Advisory criteria across
east Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Strong to severe thunderstorms again possible on Wednesday night
as a surface and upper-low across Texas wing northeast across the
ArkLaTex. Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes will be
possible with this system. Progressive pattern to continue with
another chance of strong to severe thunderstorms late in the
forecast period. Models are still inconsistent on the timing and
location of this system.
Temperatures throughout the forecast period to range from highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s each day and lows in the 60s through
mid week before dipping into the 50s late in the work week. /05/
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1248 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/
VFR SKC conditions across the area with increasing mid/upper lvl
cloud decks across portions of TX/OK just north and west of the
cwa. Meanwhile, high MVFR decks just south of cwa beginning to
scatter out. Some brief tempo low decks still possible at KLFK and
possibly near KTYR and KGGG for the next couple of hours.
Southerly gradient winds will begin to increase, and may remain
the same or even increase after the 27/00z sunset period, with low
clouds making a quick return, possibly before 27/06z. A stg upper
lvl low over panhandles to migrate across OK with elevated
instability. Stg tstms with hail potential mainly to nw of cwa
near Red River valley nwd into OK, may brush KTXK terminal area
by around 27/06z, and likely remain just north of KTYR and KGGG.
Low clouds mid mrng may begin to scatter out south winds becmg
swrly around 10 kts./VII/.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 66 82 62 83 / 20 30 10 20
MLU 65 82 63 82 / 10 40 20 20
DEQ 60 77 50 77 / 70 30 10 10
TXK 63 79 56 78 / 50 20 10 10
ELD 63 80 57 78 / 20 30 20 10
TYR 64 80 61 82 / 40 20 10 20
GGG 65 81 61 82 / 30 20 10 20
LFK 67 84 66 86 / 10 20 20 20