Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 202112
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
412 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDED FROM MEXICO
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY. ON THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWEST INTO EAST TEXAS. DRY AIR ALOFT AND
ON THE SURFACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA HAS KEPT THE AREA FREE OF
CONVECTION OTHER THAN THE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.
WITH LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE AND
WILL OMIT ENTRY TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. UNDER THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO WEST HAS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM A
PREVIOUS HURRICANE AND LOOKS AS IF THIS MOISTURE WILL NOT REACH
OUR REGION BUT PRODUCE CONVECTION ACROSS WEST AND SOUTH TEXAS AND
NEW MEXICO. A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST AND PROVIDE MUCH OF THE WESTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WITH RAIN AND CONVECTION. THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD
AND INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND END FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH ON MONDAY
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE GULF COAST AND REPLACED BY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR. SHOULD SEE ONE
MORE DAY OF 90 PLUS TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY BEFORE A COOL DOWN
OCCURS. FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND
COOL. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  94  69  89  63 /   0  10  20  10   0
MLU  68  93  66  87  60 /  10  10  20  10   0
DEQ  67  90  63  83  58 /  10  20  20   0   0
TXK  68  91  65  84  59 /   0  20  20   0   0
ELD  67  92  64  84  58 /   0  20  20   0   0
TYR  70  92  69  88  64 /   0  10  20  10   0
GGG  68  92  69  89  64 /   0  10  20  10   0
LFK  68  92  69  91  66 /   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




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