Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 292300
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
600 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.AVIATION...
Widely scattered convection currently firing well north of our
terminal sites this evening in association with a weakening upper
level shear axis dropping southeast in weak northwest flow aloft.
Models are in good agreement with this activity slowly dissipating
tonight with the loss of daytime heating. This activity should
remain well north of our terminal sites overnight.

VFR conditions should prevail overnight except for some patchy fog
in the 3-5SM range which could develop at the ELD/MLU/LFK
terminals in the 09-13z timeframe on Sat. Otherwise...expect the
development of a cu field on Sat with heat induced isolated
afternoon convection which will be to limited to warrant a mention
in this 24hr TAF package.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Several different features contributing to convection over the
region today. A weak mid to upper level shear axis along with
daytime heating across Southeast Texas has resulted in isolated
convection developing across the Brazos River Valley and spreading
northeast into Deep East Texas. Daytime heating has also lead to
isolated convection across our Central Louisiana parishes.
Northwesterly flow aloft has allowed an old outflow boundary from
overnight convection in NW Oklahoma to move southeast into the
Interstate 30 corridor our our region. Isolated convection has
developed on an off along this boundary today. Latest model
guidance suggests redevelopment may continue to occur along the
remnant outflow boundary through the evening hours. A similar
setup is expected on tomorrow as another convective complex is
expected to develops over Oklahoma and another outflow boundary is
sent southeastward towards our CWA along with more possible
diurnal convection.

Rain chances will continue on Sunday, but will shift slightly
eastward, as we continue to be in Northwest flow aloft. As we
continue through next week, rain chances will gradually diminish
and become confined to our Louisiana and Southern Arkansas zones
on Tuesday. A broad upper ridge builds into the region by mid
week, but weak mid-level disturbances rotating underneath the
ridge could provide some increased chances for diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms through next weekend. Daytime high
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s can be expected as early as
Monday and persisting through the next work week. With the lack of
significant rainfall expected for next week, expect heat indices to
return above 105 degrees, and possible heat advisories returning.

/20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  93  76  96 /  20  40  20  20
MLU  74  93  75  95 /  20  40  20  30
DEQ  72  92  73  94 /  40  40  20  30
TXK  74  94  76  95 /  40  40  20  30
ELD  73  92  74  94 /  40  40  20  30
TYR  76  95  76  96 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  76  95  76  96 /  20  30  20  20
LFK  75  95  75  96 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

20/13


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