Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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264
FXUS64 KSHV 301252
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
752 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016


.AVIATION...
For the 30/12Z terminal forecast expecting sites to have brief
mvfr categories in mist/br with visibility restrictions of 3-5
statute miles and in the showers and thunderstorms over parts of
East and Northeast Texas. Convection will be slowly eroding in the
mid to late morning for the Texas and Oklahoma, and Southwest
Arkansas region. VFR conditions are expected to remain through
much of the overnight hours with MVFR categories possible late.
Surface winds will be light and variable to South 5-10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 535 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The MCS, while slowly weakening, has persisted and should be
moving in the western fringes of the CWA within the next hour or
two. Have updated the grids in the short-term to increase PoPs and
QPF, accordingly.

Updated text products will be sent shortly.

/09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Another night and another large convective complex is ongoing
across the Southern Plains west of the CWA. The strongest storms
in this complex should remain well southwest of the area.
Thunderstorms are a bit more robust and are maintaining themselves
a bit better compared to the last few nights. Some of these storms
will likely reach a few of our westernmost counties of East Texas
and McCurtain County in Southeast Oklahoma this morning. However,
the storms should gradually weaken with eastward extent as they
encounter decreasing instability. Similar to the last 24 hours,
redevelopment is possible along any old outflow boundaries
especially from the peak of daytime heating through the evening
hours. A very similar scenario is expected to unfold tonight
through Tuesday morning.

A long-duration rain event, with the potential for localized heavy
rainfall, is still expected to develop beginning late Tuesday and
continuing into at least early Saturday as an upper trough
currently over the California/Arizona border slowly moves towards
the area. The best chances for widespread rainfall should be
Wednesday and into Thursday as a cold front approaches. It appears
the highest rainfall totals will be west of a line from Lufkin,
TX, to Prescott, AR. Through Saturday morning, 2 to 3 inches of
rainfall is likely in those locations, with lower amounts farther
east, but still probably above an inch. Locally higher amounts
will be possible especially if storms are slow-moving or training.
Flood headlines may become necessary in later forecast packages.

The upper trough is expected to stall just south of the area,
possibly just off the coast south of the mouth of the Sabine
River. The trough will gradually weaken through the beginning of
next week, but thunderstorms will remain in the forecast on a
daily basis, especially south of I-30 through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  70  88  70 /  30  20  20  30
MLU  91  69  90  71 /  30  20  20  20
DEQ  86  66  84  68 /  50  30  30  50
TXK  87  67  87  69 /  40  30  30  40
ELD  90  67  90  70 /  30  20  30  30
TYR  88  69  86  69 /  50  20  20  40
GGG  88  67  87  69 /  40  20  20  40
LFK  88  67  88  69 /  30  10  20  20

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/09



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