Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KSHV 131034
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
534 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014


.AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM PATCHY FOG AT KMLU AND KELD TERMINALS FOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS...
VFR SKC CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH. SCATTERED CU BASED 5-7K FEEET MAY DEVELOP
IN AFTN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THRU PERIOD. AFTN
CONVECTION...IF ANY...WILL REMAIN VERY ISOLD./VII/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE CENTER OF
THE 500-300MB RIDGE STILL RESIDING FROM ERN OK/SE KS INTO SRN
MO/NRN AR. MEANWHILE...THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A
TUTT LOW ALONG THE SCNTRL LA COAST...WHICH THE PROGS INDICATE WILL
DRIFT W TO NEAR SABINE PASS/SE TX COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD
AGAIN SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOP NEAR AND N OF THIS FEATURE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HEATING...AFFECTING PRIMARILY LOWER E
TX AND N LA S OF I-20. FARTHER N...LIMITED MOISTURE AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF VERY
HOT TEMPS...AS TEMPS AGAIN RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...NEAR OR JUST UNDER THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. AREAS OF NE
TX/SE OK DID MIX OUT AGAIN SATURDAY...WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR THE
AMBIENT AIR TEMP. HOWEVER...AREAS FARTHER E DID NOT MIX OUT AS
WELL...WITH HEAT INDICES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 101-105. THIS
SHOULD AGAIN BE THE CASE TODAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS HEAT SHOULD BEGIN GRADUALLY LET UP AFTER
MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT IN RESPONSE
TO AN UPPER LOW OVER NRN MANITOBA CARVING A LONGWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW
FOR A WEAK SFC FRONT OVER SRN/ERN KS E INTO THE MIDWEST TO MIX
SLOWLY S INTO NRN OK AND NRN AR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY MONDAY. SFC RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL HELP
REINFORCE THIS BNDRY S AS A WEAK COOL FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD ENTER THE I-30 CORRIDOR MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MIX S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TUESDAY.

PREFER THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH
THE SHORT RANGE PROGS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...AS
STRONGER NW WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER JET
ENHANCE DIVERGENCE. MODERATE SBCAPES AND INCREASING LAPSE RATES
BENEATH THE TROUGH AXIS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY ENHANCE AN
ISOLATED SVR THREAT OVER SE OK/SW AR...BEFORE WEAKENING LATER IN
THE EVENING WITH THE STABILIZING BNDRY LYR. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
HIGH CHANCE FOR THE I-30 CORRIDOR MONDAY EVENING...AND RAISED POPS
A BIT MONDAY NIGHT FARTHER S TO I-20...ALTHOUGH THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH REDUCED FORCING. THE FRONT MAY MIX TO
LOWER TOLEDO BEND/CNTRL LA OR JUST S THEREOF BY TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY...WITH DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO BACKDOOR
SW INTO THE REGION FROM CNTRL AR ONCE THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES
FROM N TO S TUESDAY.

A NW UPPER FLOW STILL REMAINS PROGGED OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY IN WAKE OF THE FROPA TUESDAY...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A
DEVELOPING SRLY LLJ OVER CNTRL TX LATE WEDNESDAY SHOULD ENHANCE
MCS DEVELOPMENT FROM N TX INTO SRN AND CNTRL OK WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN VC OF THE WRN EXTENT OF THE COOL FRONT...WITH
UNUSUAL OVERRUNNING /FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ INCREASING FARTHER E
INTO E TX/SE OK WEDNESDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO SW AR/NW
LA LATE. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR THESE AREAS...WITH
THE AIR MASS SLOWER TO SATURATE FARTHER E WHERE THE DRY POST-
FRONTAL AIR WILL BE A BIT DEEPER. THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR S
LOOKS TO BEGINS RETURNING N AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY...AND WILL HELP FOCUS ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS ADDITIONAL PERTURBATIONS ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THE ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
FROM EARLIER RUNS IN GENERATING WIDESPREAD 3-6+ INCH QPF/S OVER NE
TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA FROM MID WEEK TO THIS WEEKEND. GIVEN THE VERY
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THIS AREAS FOR THE LAST 5-6 WEEKS...THESE
AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE THE RAIN...UNLESS TRAINING OF THE
STRONGER STORMS OCCUR. GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DID EXTEND HIGH CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING POPS FROM W TO E NEXT WEEKEND
WITH THE FINAL TROUGH PASSAGE. DID ALSO TAPER MAX TEMPS BACK
SEVERAL DEGREES LATER THIS WEEK /BELOW MOS/ FOR THE INCREASED
RAINFALL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  74  97  75  91 /  10  10  20  40  40
MLU  95  73  95  73  91 /  10  10  20  40  40
DEQ  96  71  94  70  88 /   0  10  30  50  30
TXK  99  75  96  72  88 /   0  10  20  50  30
ELD  97  72  95  71  89 /  10  10  20  50  40
TYR  97  75  97  74  90 /  10  10  10  40  40
GGG  97  74  97  74  91 /  10  10  10  40  40
LFK  98  74  97  75  93 /  20  20  20  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.