Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 041255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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