Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 290455
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1155 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.AVIATION...
S-sse winds quite stg thru entire fcst cycle across area.
Overnight winds of 10 to 20 kts with these winds increasing to
20 to 30 kts...and gusts over 35kts possible by mid aftn.
VFR conditions this eve, with mvfr decks quickly movg nwd into
KLFK terminal around 29/04z, and across I-20 by 29/05-07z.
High mvfr to low vfr cigs may begin to scatter ocnly after 29/18z.
Additional instability with scattered decks yielding sfc temps
into mid/upper 80s, may result in explosive isold to sct
convection and possible supercell tstms, mainly after 29/21z.
Squall line will form up after sunset and move E overnight. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 930 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Current forecast in good shape and will make no changes.
/06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Southerly flow has returned to the ArkLaTex bringing much warmer
temperatures areawide. Temperatures ranging from the upper 70s
across southeast Oklahoma to the upper 80s across deep east Texas.
One of the more significant changes is that dewpoint values have
risen into the upper 60s to lower 70s, which is a difference of 20
to 25 degrees within the past 24 hours.

Severe weather threat remains possible across southeast Oklahoma
and portions of southwest Arkansas. Main focus of severe weather
will be in the vicinity of a warm front that moved across the
ArkLaTex earlier today and which is now located in central
Arkansas. Severe weather will be mainly focused near frontal
boundary, putting the Interstate 30 corridor on the southern edge
of the risk area. With a substantial cap in place, destabilization
may not occur until around mid-evening. Main threat will be
supercells producing large hail with a secondary threat of
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

An enhanced pressure gradient will allow for southerly winds
within lake wind advisory criteria of around 20 mph through the
overnight hours and into Saturday. For this forecast package, went
ahead and extended lake wind advisory through 7 PM Saturday.

Severe weather threat becomes more widespread on Saturday. Low-
level moisture will support dewpoint values in the 70s on
Saturday, aiding in destabilization. Another contributing factor
will be strong low-level jet and cape values 2500-4000 j/kg.
Storm development will occur along an eastward moving cold front,
developing from the south and becoming linear through the
afternoon as mid-level vort max aligns with eastward progressing
storms. Squall line to reach maturity around sunset Saturday with
damaging wind gusts becoming the main threat. Along with severe
weather, locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. Latest
guidance has indicated QPF totals to be slightly less than
previously expected across the region. However, 4-6 inches still
remains possible across Flash Flood Watch area. Will continue with
ongoing watch at this time with no adjustments.

Conditions to quickly improve from the west on Sunday as high
pressure rebuilds from the west. Mild temperatures expected next
week with temperatures ranging from highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s. Another round of showers
and thunderstorms expected on Wednesday night and Thursday in
conjunction with another cold front. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  86  61  73 /  20  50  90  50
MLU  75  88  70  75 /  20  50  70  90
DEQ  72  80  57  66 /  50  90 100  40
TXK  74  83  59  69 /  40  70  90  40
ELD  74  85  66  72 /  30  60  90  70
TYR  75  85  57  68 /  20  60  90  30
GGG  75  85  58  70 /  20  50  90  30
LFK  76  86  61  74 /  20  50  90  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ070>073.

     Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning
     for ARZ050-051-059>061PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 609 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

AVIATION....

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning
     for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

24/06


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