Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 292354
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/00Z TAFS...ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST ONCE AGAIN WITH
AMENDMENTS LIKELY. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...INCLUDING OCCASIONAL
SEVERE TSTMS...ARE AFFECTING MOST TERMINALS IN E TX NORTH OF
I-20/SRN AR/SE OK. SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING
FARTHER SOUTH OF I-20 IN E TX. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL AFFECT
ALL TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
FLUCTUATE. A MORE SOLID LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 30/06Z
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION AFTER 30/21Z. A FEW LINGERING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 01/00Z.

/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MULTI-THREAT EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...TWO SEPARATE HEAVY RAINFALL AXES HAVE SET
UP...ONE OVER OUR NE TX COUNTIES FROM NEAR TYLER TO DEKALB...AND
ANOTHER ALONG THE RED RIVER OF NE TX/SE OK EWD THROUGH NEAR EL
DORADO. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING EWD
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT EWD THROUGH THE EVENT. HAVE ADDED THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TO
THE FF WATCH...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS WILL NOT SEE HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME
CHANGES TO THE EXPIRATION TIME...SETTING MUCH OF THE WATCH TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z SUNDAY. ALLOWED THE EXTREME SERN PORTIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SUN. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY...AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW...AS THE SFC
LOW LIFTS NEWD...AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH
THAT. RAIN LOOKS TO FINALLY DIMINISH/END SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TEMPS LOOK TO RUN COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS WE MOVE
INTO MONDAY.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE MOVE ON TO OUR NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
W AS THE STALLED FRONT MOVES BACK NWD AND ACTS AS A FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY...AND WE MAY SEE MORE FLASH FLOODING/RIVER FLOODING AS A
RESULT.

DESPITE THIS BETTER AGREEMENT...MODELS DIVERGE AGAIN FOR THE MID
PART OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE FINAL KICKER TROF. HOWEVER...ATTM
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE AN END OF PRECIP BY TUE NIGHT AS A
FINALLY PUSH OF DRY AIR FILTERS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OUR TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  82  67  82 /  90  70  50  20
MLU  70  81  68  83 /  70  70  70  30
DEQ  66  78  58  81 /  90  50  20  10
TXK  68  80  62  82 /  90  70  30  10
ELD  69  80  65  83 /  90  70  50  20
TYR  68  82  63  81 /  90  50  20  10
GGG  69  83  65  82 /  90  70  30  10
LFK  70  81  69  82 /  90  70  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

09



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