Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 291745
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
THIN BAND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NE TX...WILL DEVELOP SWD
ACROSS I-20...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS LA/AR PORTIONS OF AREA
LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE. WINDS FROM S-SE AROUND 10 KTS...A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN VCNTY OF WK SFC LOW MOVG EAST ACROSS AREA. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH LA..AND MOVE NWD.
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
AREA. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVG ACROSS AREA SAT MRNG...POSSIBLE
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION IN WAKE OF THIS FRONT. PATCHY FOG
ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WET GROUND AND LGT SOUTH
WINDS./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS AND REMOVE HEAVY RAIN FROM FCST THIS
MORNING AS MCS MOVG INTO EASTERN TX EARLY THIS AM HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT RAPID CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT BY
MIDDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ALONG WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FOR THE AREA ARE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND RAINFALL MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE AREA RIVERS AND
WATER DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AT FLOOD STAGE AND OUT OF THEIR BANKS WITH
LITTLE ALLOWANCE FOR ADDITIONAL WATER COLLECTION...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. HAVE INCLUDED THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT
INCLUDES SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EAST OF THE FOUR
STATE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HOWEVER ON THE HEELS OF
THIS FEATURE WILL COME ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS THAT WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RAINFALL THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH
HIGH WATER LEVELS ONGOING. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH THE RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF AS
A SMALL LOW OVER LOUISIANA AND RETROGRADING INTO THE GULF OFF THE
UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WORK
WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES TOWARD
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT WHERE THE SUN DOES RETURN
READING WILL CLIMB QUICKY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
MLU  86  69  84  67 /  60  60  60  50
DEQ  81  67  79  64 /  70  60  60  40
TXK  83  68  81  65 /  70  60  60  50
ELD  86  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
TYR  83  69  81  65 /  70  60  60  40
GGG  84  69  82  66 /  70  60  60  50
LFK  86  70  85  67 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070-071.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001-002.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$


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