Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 310842
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Early this morning an area of convection was located over Central
Kansas with a second area of convection having developed across
Northwest Arkansas. These two areas were developing within an
instability axis co-located over an area of warm advection ahead
of the weak surface frontal boundary that has been over the region
the past few days. Mean flow has the convection in Kansas
propagating eastward while the convection in Northwest Arkansas
had more of a southeast component.

Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated to link the
two areas of convection along the instability axis/region of warm
air advection this morning. Most of this activity should remain
north of Eastern Oklahoma...though the further eastward the
convection travels...a more southeasterly direction it looks to
take which should allow for the greater precip chances over
Northwest Arkansas through the morning hours. Also this
morning...the weak surface frontal boundary is expected to lift
northeast as a warm front and exit the CWA this afternoon.

Behind the frontal boundary...isolated to scattered diurnal type
convection could be possible over the CWA and will leave slight
chance pops through 00z. Gusty winds and periods of heavy rainfall
will be possible within any thunderstorm development today. For
locations that do not receive rainfall today...rising mid-level
heights and southerly winds will allow for afternoon temperatures
to climb into the mid/upper 90s for Eastern Oklahoma and around
90 to mid 90s for Northwest Arkansas.

Ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the Southern
Plains through the work week with temperatures back in the mid 90s
to around 100 degrees possible. These conditions will aid heat
index values to get into the 100 to 109 degree range. Thus...heat
headlines will likely be needed again for parts of the CWA this
week. Each afternoon this week...an isolated diurnal pulse type
thunderstorm may be possible within the higher terrain locations
of Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...though confidence
remains low for each day and will keep pops below mentionable
criteria with this forecast package.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  98  78 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   96  76  98  77 /  30  10  10  10
MLC   96  76  98  77 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   95  73  97  73 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   89  71  92  72 /  40  10  10  10
BYV   89  73  92  73 /  50  10  10  10
MKO   95  74  97  75 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   93  74  95  75 /  30  10  10  10
F10   95  76  97  76 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   97  76  99  76 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....20



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