Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 231134
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
534 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR/IFR CIGS...ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KMLC AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES IN.
WILL CONTINUE WITH PROB GROUPS AFTER 00Z ACROSS THE NE OK AND NW
AR TAF SITES AS THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES FOR THE LAST 3-6 HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN TEXAS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY IN FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARAKNSAS...BUT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
PUNCHES INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
PLENTIFUL...BUT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO NEAR THE 70 DEGREE MARK.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
THESE WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS IN
PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT FUSED WIND ADVISORY LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH PERIODIC
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
THE ECMWF AND GEM BOTH DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WHILE THE UKMET AND GFS DEPICT A STRONG WARMING TREND. THE
DISPARITY ALSO EXISTS AMONG THE VARIOUS ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITH 30-40 DEGREE TEMPERATURE SPREADS AMONG THE MEMBERS AND
STANDARD DEVIATIONS IN THE ALMOST UNHEARD OF DOUBLE DIGITS NEXT
SATURDAY. WITH NO CLEAR CUT ADVANTAGE TO EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
POINT IN TIME...HAVE TAKEN A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH ON
TEMPERATURES FOR NOW.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23




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