Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 200536
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1136 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patchy dense fog continues to develop in the more cloud free
areas late this evening. Still some uncertainty regarding how
dense fog will be in NE OK as low stratus deck continues to spread
north. Winds should remain light enough overnight for denser fog
to develop across NW AR with IFR/LIFR conditions expected. The
fog/low clouds will clear from southwest to northeast late Friday
morning into early afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 829 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

Patchy fog has begun to develop across portions of eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas this evening. Fog is expected to
increase in coverage overnight with some some fog becoming dense.
Will continue to monitor to see if advisory may need to be issued
later tonight. Minor changes made to temperatures and sky cover
tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 549 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Low clouds have begun to scatter out across SE OK/NW AR late this
afternoon. Fog will likely develop this evening into the overnight
hours with the potential for some locations to be dense. IFR/LIFR
conditions expected into Friday morning before low ceilings/fog
clear from southwest to northeast around mid day with gusty
south winds in the afternoon over most areas.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 250 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Low clouds are hanging around this afternoon across much of
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, although visible satellite
trends are showing some signs of breaking up in a few spots. Low
clouds and fog will redevelop overnight, with a small chance of
showers along the Kansas and Missouri borders this evening in
response to the upper low currently moving into northwest
Oklahoma. Dense fog may occur overnight and into tomorrow morning,
especially across northern portions of the forecast area, and
eventually, an advisory may be required.

The clouds will finally begin to decrease during the day tomorrow
in the wake of the upper low as it moves into the western Great
Lakes. With strong southerly winds and increased sunshine,
temperatures should be well into the 60s tomorrow and again on
Saturday.

Showers and perhaps, thunderstorms will increase by Saturday
night as a progressive upper level low moves through Oklahoma and
Texas and into the lower Mississippi Valley. The last couple of NAM
solutions seem to be outliers, featuring a much weaker wave and
less precipitation potential until it moves east of the forecast
area, when compared to other models and their trends. As a result,
this forecast will continue with the higher precipitation chances
with this feature.

Cooler temperatures will follow the upper low for a short time,
with another quick warmup slated for the early to middle part of
the next week. An even stronger cooldown will follow the passage
of a dry front for the middle to latter part of next week, with
temperatures likely to be closer to normal.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...12


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