Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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586
FXUS64 KTSA 181115
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
515 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR/VFR cigs behind a cold front that will move through the entire
area this morning. VFR conditions expected at all sites from
early afternoon through the remainder of the TAF period. NW sfc
winds gusting between 25-35 kts to ensue at all sites upon frontal
passage and continuing through 00z.




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 251 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Strong cold front, currently moving into western Osage county,
will sweep through the area today with scattered showers across
NE OK/NW AR. Gusty northwest winds of 40 to 45 mph will be likely
behind the front, especially across northeast Oklahoma. The drier
air-mass, coupled with the strong winds, will create an elevated
fire danger threat this afternoon with minimum RH values around 40
percent across portions of eastern Oklahoma.

Winds will begin to drop off this evening into the overnight hours
as surface pressure builds over the area by Sunday morning. Surface
high will quickly shift east Sunday night with gusty southwest winds
returning. With limited moisture return, an elevated fire danger threat
will once again develop Monday afternoon.

Another cold front will move through on Tuesday, but will likely
remain dry. Brief cool down expected on Wednesday before a slow
warming trend for the latter half of work week. Temperatures are
expected to be back to near or slightly above normal by Friday.
Just beyond the extended forecast period, another front expected
around Saturday, unfortunately precipitation is also expected to
remain limited with system.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$


AVIATION.....23



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