Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 250031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Jan 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 25-Jan 27 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 25-Jan 27 2015

            Jan 25     Jan 26     Jan 27
00-03UT        2          4          3
03-06UT        3          3          2
06-09UT        3          3          2
09-12UT        3          3          2
12-15UT        3          3          2
15-18UT        4          3          2
18-21UT        5 (G1)     3          2
21-00UT        4          4          2

Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are possible on 25
January with the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 25-Jan 27 2015

              Jan 25  Jan 26  Jan 27
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 25-Jan 27 2015

              Jan 25        Jan 26        Jan 27
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale:  There is a chance for R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts,
particularly from Region 2268.



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