Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 310030
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Aug 31 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 31-Sep 02 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 31-Sep 02 2015

            Aug 31     Sep 01     Sep 02
00-03UT        3          2          5 (G1)
03-06UT        3          1          4
06-09UT        2          1          4
09-12UT        1          2          3
12-15UT        1          3          3
15-18UT        2          4          3
18-21UT        2          5 (G1)     3
21-00UT        2          5 (G1)     4

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels through midday on day two (01 Sep). Activity is expected to
increase to unsettled to minor (G1-Minor) storm levels by mid to late on
day two and continue into day three (02 Sep). A solar sector boundary
crossing, followed by a co-rotating interaction region in advance of an
equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole high speed is expected to
become geoeffective.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 31-Sep 02 2015

              Aug 31  Sep 01  Sep 02
S1 or greater    5%      1%      1%

Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at
background levels (Below S1-Minor) as Region 2403 rotates further around
the SW limb.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Aug 30 2015 0330 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 31-Sep 02 2015

              Aug 31        Sep 01        Sep 02
R1-R2           40%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    5%            1%            1%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on day one (31
Aug) with a chance for M-class flares (R1-Minor). Activity is expected
to decrease on days two and three (01-02 Sep) to only a chance for
C-class flares as Region 2403 rotates further around the west limb.


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