Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 071231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2016 Feb 07 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 07-Feb 09 2016 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 07-Feb 09 2016

            Feb 07     Feb 08     Feb 09
00-03UT        2          4          4
03-06UT        1          4          3
06-09UT        1          3          2
09-12UT        2          3          4
12-15UT        3          3          4
15-18UT        3          3          3
18-21UT        3          3          3
21-00UT        4          4          3

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
Unsettled to active levels (Below G1-Minor) are expected on days one
through three (07-09 Feb) due to a combination of coronal hole high
speed stream effects as well as the possible arrival of a glancing blow
from the 05 Feb CME approximately mid-day on 09 February.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 07-Feb 09 2016

              Feb 07  Feb 08  Feb 09
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 07-Feb 09 2016

              Feb 07        Feb 08        Feb 09
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts for the forecast period (07-09 Feb).



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