Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 221230
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2013 May 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 22-May 24 2013 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 22-May 24 2013

            May 22     May 23     May 24
00-03UT        4          3          3
03-06UT        2          4          3
06-09UT        2          3          1
09-12UT        2          3          1
12-15UT        2          3          1
15-18UT        3          3          1
18-21UT        3          3          1
21-00UT        3          3          1

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 22-May 24 2013

              May 22  May 23  May 24
S1 or greater   15%     15%     15%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 22-May 24 2013

              May 22        May 23        May 24
R1-R2           50%           50%           50%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%


Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be below NOAA Scale thresholds
during the period (22 - 24 May).  There is a chance for an M-class (NOAA
Scale R1- Minor) flare and a slight chance for an X-class (NOAA Scale
R3- Strong) flare as Region 1748 continues its migration across the
visible disk and Region 1755 migrates towards center disk.
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