Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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AXGM70 PGUM 080112
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PMZ181-GUZ001>004-220200-
MAJURO-GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1100 AM CHST THU FEB 8 2018

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS
AND THE MARIANA ISLANDS...

SYNOPSIS...
THE CURRENT LA NINA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SPRING AND
THEN ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SUMMER INTO
EARLY FALL. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF MICRONESIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS. MOST RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF 10N THROUGH MARCH OR UNTIL UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BEGIN TO MIGRATE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN
THE TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR AROUND
APRIL. THESE WESTWARD MOVING DISTURBANCES ARE NEEDED TO HELP BRING
SPRING AND SUMMER RAINS TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA.

SATELLITE SHOWS VERY DRY WEATHER ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N FROM THE DATE
LINE WESTWARD ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO BEEN
RATHER DRY OVER THE MARIANA ISLANDS. FAIRLY NORMAL RAINFALL HAS BEEN
REPORTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MARSHALL ISLANDS...AND THE
REST OF MICRONESIA HAS HAD SUFFICIENT RAINFALL TO AVERT DROUGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MICRONESIA.

THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
INDICATES THAT UTIRIK AND WOTJE OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS
REMAIN IN SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM MODERATE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 1
OF 4). KWAJALEIN AND NEARBY ATOLLS RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINS
RECENTLY BUT CONDITIONS COULD WORSEN THERE IN THE COMING WEEKS.
SAIPAN...TINIAN AND ROTA OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS REMAIN IN
SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM MODERATE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4).
MEANWHILE...GUAM HAS WORSENED FROM ABNORMALLY DRY (DROUGHT LEVEL D0)
TO SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM MODERATE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4).

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

MARSHALL ISLANDS...

FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS...
MODERATE DROUGHT PERSISTS AT UTIRIK...WOTJE AND OTHER ATOLLS NORTH
OF KWAJALEIN. A FEW SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS KWAJALEIN AND WOTJE AND
OTHER ATOLLS SOUTH OF 10N WITHIN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATE ONLY SPOTTY TRADE-WIND SHOWERS WILL BE PASSING OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISLANDS ALONG
AND NORTH OF 9N SUCH AS UTIRIK...RONGELAP...BIKINI...AILUK...WOTJE
AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SUFFER FROM
VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS. MALOELAP...JUST
SOUTH OF 9N...COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS.

OTHER ATOLLS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...
SOME PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO AFFECT KWAJALEIN...WOTHO...
MALOELAP...UJAE...WOTJE...LIKIEP AND NEIGHBORING ATOLLS. SUFFICIENT
RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED FOR MAJURO...ARNO...NAMU...JALUIT...
AILINGLAPLAP...AND NEIGHBORING ISLANDS. THESE LOCATIONS HAVE HAD
ADEQUATE MONTHLY RAINFALL TO AVERT DROUGHT IMPACTS SO FAR.

.GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS (CNMI)...
DRY WEATHER AND MODERATE DROUGHT IS AFFECTING GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN
AND SAIPAN AND THE ISLANDS FARTHER NORTH. SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS SHOWED ONLY SPOTTY TRADE-WIND SHOWERS PASSING BY
THE MARIANA ISLANDS. IN THE NEAR TERM...HELPFUL SHOWERS COULD SPREAD
OVER THE MARIANAS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES
SOUTH OF GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH.

VEGETATION AND FOOD SOURCES COULD SUFFER FROM THE DROUGHT...AND LOCAL
WELLS NEAR THE COAST WILL ALSO BE AT RISK AND COULD BECOME SALTY. THE
DANGER FROM WILDFIRES WILL INCREASE.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE SCIENTISTS INDICATE
THAT THE CURRENT LA NINA CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST INTO THE SPRING.
THEN...CLIMATE MODELS ARE INDICATING A TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL
CONDITIONS. NOTE THAT MAJURO AND KWAJALEIN WERE VERY WET IN JANUARY.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                  JAN    NORMAL  % NORMAL  FEB  NORMAL  % NORMAL
                 (1-31)  (1-31)  (1-31)   (1-7) (1-7)   (1-7)

UTIRIK            3.56   2.03    175       0.0   0.37    0
WOTJE             4.37   2.41    181       0.55  0.39   141
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE  14.46   4.01    361       0.45  0.82    55
MAJURO           15.76   8.28    190       1.98  1.90   104
SAIPAN            2.97   3.56     83       0.56  0.65    86
TINIAN            3.94   4.11     96       0.89  0.82   109
ROTA              2.24   5.24     43       0.33  1.30    25
GUAM AP           0.94   4.86     19       0.65  1.13    58

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
A DRY ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS AND THE
MARIANA ISLANDS. EVAPORATION CAUSED BY PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS
BLOWING ACROSS THE OCEAN SHOULD HELP OFFSET AND MODERATE THE HIGHER
TEMPERATURES.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO...
RAINFALL FOR AREAS NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE (ENEWETAK TO UTIRIK)
WILL BE VERY LOW WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
AND SPOTTY AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF INCH FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. RAINFALL
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER FARTHER SOUTH AND AREAS FROM NEAR KWAJALEIN
TO WOTJE SHOULD RECEIVE AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A HALF INCH UP TO ONE
INCH DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...
WEATHER WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER IN THIS AREA AND RAINFALL
FOR MAJURO AND MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS
WILL BE VARIABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS. MOST OF THESE ISLANDS SHOULD
RECEIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH FOR
THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

.GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...ROTA AND ISLANDS FARTHER
NORTH WILL BE VARIABLE AND RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH UP TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THE ISLANDS FARTHER
NORTH...SUCH AS PAGAN AND AGRIHAN MAY RECEIVE HIGHER AMOUNTS IF A
SHEAR LINE MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. GUAM WILL RECEIVE SOME
SHOWERS BY THIS WEEKEND WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A HALF INCH
UP TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES FOR THE NEXT 5 TO 10 DAYS. RELATIVELY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR ALL THE MARIANA ISLANDS IN THE COMING
WEEKS.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE
THURSDAY 22 FEBRUARY 2018 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY
TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL
DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT
INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...NWS WFO
GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT
CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. THE PACIFIC
ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...
CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREAS REMAIN SOUTH OF 10N FROM 135E TO
ABOUT 165E...INCLUDING PARTS OF PALAU AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF CHUUK...
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES. FOR INFORMATION SEE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE
AT HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY
OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES
AT MAJURO AND AT WENO CHUUK...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES...THE
NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE NOAA
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...
WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-
0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

SIMPSON/GUARD/LANDER

$$



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