Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
735 AM CDT THU MAR 2 2017

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
...The Spring Flood Outlook calls for a below normal potential of
river flooding across Central Alabama...

...HISTORICALLY...
Historically for Central Alabama...the river flood season begins in
early to mid January...with the number of river flood events
increasing through late winter with a peak in early to mid March...
and mostly ending in late April for the region. The forecast for
below normal river flooding in Central Alabama indicates that the
magnitude and number of events will be less than typical through
April.

...STREAMFLOW...
As far as 28-day average streamflow...streamflow levels are below to
well below normal as of March 2nd in most basins in Central Alabama
based on data provided by the United States Geological Survey (USGS).
Currently...streamflows continue to run below normal across most of
Central Alabama despite our recent rainfall.

...PAST PRECIPITATION...
In the last 30 days...based on Southeast River Forecast Center
(SERFC) precipitation estimates...rainfall has been mostly below
normal across northern sections of Central Alabama and near normal
in the southern sections. Rainfall totals so far this winter
(December through February) across Central Alabama are generally
running from twelve to twenty five inches with the heavier amounts
in the southern sections.

Location                 Rainfall December 2016 thru February 2017

Birmingham                            12.05 inches
Anniston                              13.16 inches
Tuscaloosa                            14.12 inches
Calera                                13.23 inches
Montgomery                            18.81 inches
Auburn                                17.85 inches
Troy                                  23.30 inches

...SOIL MOISTURE...
Soil moisture profiles across Central Alabama reflect the rainfall
pattern across the area this winter.  Profiles are running from near
normal in the southern sections of the area to below normal as you
move across the central and northern portions of Central Alabama.

...RESERVOIRS...
Most of the reservoirs in Central Alabama are near their target pools
although a couple on the Tallapoosa River are a little higher than
their normal level for this time of year. As we head into April and
May...most reservoir target pools begin to increase for their summer
pool.

...FUTURE PRECIPITATION...
The short term rainfall outlook shows an equal chance for above or
below normal precipitation for Central Alabama through March. At
this time...medium range meteorological models show two weather
systems over the next ten days bringing insufficient runoff to
produce widespread river flooding in Central Alabama.

As far as the longer term precipitation outlook through the
remainder of winter into early spring...based on the Climate
Prediction Center`s long lead outlook for March through May...
there are equal chances for normal...below normal and above normal
precipitation across the area. Based on climatology...rainfall
generally decreases in April relative to March across the region.
For more information visit the Climate Prediction Center web site
at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
Overall...considering below normal streamflow in most areas of
Central Alabama and the likelihood of below normal precipitation
through March and soil moisture profiles...the number of river floods
and the magnitude of river flooding will be less than usual. Another
added factor limiting flood potential is that recent warm
temperatures have made trees and vegetation begin to come out of
winter dormancy much earlier increasing evapotranspiration rates and
minimizing runoff.

The SERFC issues a variety of products throughout the year to update
the outlook for water resources. The SERFC Water Resources Outlook
is updated every two to three weeks.

For the latest multimedia version of the Water Resources
Outlook...go to...

   www.weather.gov/serfc and click on the Water Resource menu.

For detailed web information concerning river stages and forecasts
for Central Alabama...go to:

   http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=bmx

For Precipitation Analysis...go to:

   http://water.weather.gov/serfc/wxobsfcst_past_precipitation

For Precipitation Forecasts...go to;

   www.weather.gov/serfc/wxobsfcst_future_precipitation

Questions/Comments?...Contact Roger McNeil, Service Hydrologist by
e-mail at roger.mcneil@noaa.gov or by phone at 205-664-3010.

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES.  THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
IS UPDATED EVERY MONTH.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE
MENU.

$$



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