Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service TAUNTON MA
1016 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

...Winter/Spring Flood Potential is above normal across RI, eastern
MA and northeast CT...
...Winter/Spring Flood Potential is normal across central and
western MA as well as north central CT...
...Some river ice lingers on the Millers River near the Orange/Athol
town line, but it is no longer restricting water...

There are no longer any significant ice jams within NWS Taunton`s
Hydrologic Service Area. The last area of concern was on the Millers
River, with ice behind the Daniel Shays Bridge near the Athol/Orange
town line. This ice jam gradually weakened over time. As of a few
days ago there was still some ice in this area, it was no longer
restricting river flows. With milder temperatures ahead this ice
will continue to decay.

Regarding the overall flood potential from rainfall and snowmelt,
the flood potential is above normal across eastern MA, RI and
northeast CT. The flood potential was near normal across western
to central MA and north central CT. The following web site has a
map depicting the flood potential outlook...
http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential.

This is the fourth winter/spring flood potential outlook of the 2018
season. This outlook is based on current and forecast
hydrometeorological conditions. This includes snow cover and snow
water equivalent, stream and river levels and the amount of ice
coverage, recent precipitation and temperatures, and expected
temperatures and precipitation over the next two weeks.

...Recent Precipitation and Temperatures...

Liquid equivalent precipitation over the past 2 weeks has been well
above normal. Much of the precipitation fell as rain. Liquid
equivalent totals during the past 2 weeks ranged from 2 to 4
inches across most of the area, except on Cape Cod where totals
were above 4 inches.

Across the majority of the area, temperatures averaged 1 to 3
degrees above normal during the past 2 weeks.

...Observed snow depths and water equivalents...

The only snow to be found within the region was along the east
slopes of the Berkshires and some of the higher terrain in north
central MA. In these areas snow depth ranged from 2 to 8 inches,
with very localized higher totals close to a foot. The snow pack was
dense. Water content ranged from 0.5 inch to 2 inches, except 3
inches where the snow depth was close to a foot

The lack of significant snow pack was much below normal for mid-
February.

...River and Ice Conditions...

Due to recent periods of rainfall, rivers and streams in southern
New England have been running above to well above normal.

There are no longer any significant ice jams within NWS Taunton`s
Hydrologic Service Area. The last area of concern was on the Millers
River, with ice behind the Daniel Shays Bridge near the Athol/Orange
town line. This ice jam gradually weakened over time. As of a few
days ago there was still some ice in this area, it was no longer
restricting river flows. With milder temperatures ahead this ice
will continue to decay.

Elsewhere across the stretch of southern New England covered by NWS
Taunton, the flood threat due to ice jams across southern New
England is below normal. With temperatures averaging above normal
over the upcoming week, and above normal temperatures forecast in
the 8 to 14 day outlook, little renewed ice development is
expected during the second half of February.

...Soil Moisture Conditions...

Soil moisture was above normal for this time of year. The ground
was partially frozen, however with above normal temperatures in
the forecast, further thawing of the soil is expected.

...Temperature and Precipitation Outlook...

Unseasonably mild conditions persist from today into Friday
afternoon, with another round of rain later tonight into early
Friday morning. Dry but much colder weather returns Friday night
into Saturday. A fast moving low pressure system will likely bring
accumulating snow to much of the region Saturday night into early
Sunday morning...but amounts remain uncertain. Above normal
temperatures will quickly return early next week with the
potential for near record high temperatures Tuesday and possibly
Wednesday.

The week 2 outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, for February
22nd thru the 28th, calls for above normal temperatures and above
normal precipitation.

...Summary...

Across eastern MA, RI and northeast CT, the flood potential is above
normal. A mild and active weather pattern is expected over the next
2 weeks. Rivers and streams in this area are generally slower to
recede, and the steady feed of rainfall has kept river and stream
levels elevated. This will leave the area more vulnerable to
flooding should heavy rainfall occur.

Across central and western MA as well as north central CT, the flood
potential is near normal. This area usually grows and retains a snow
pack into late winter, and at this time the snow pack is quite
limited. However this is tempered by the above normal river flows,
and the mild and active weather pattern that is expected over the
next 2 weeks.

Keep in mind that heavy rain can cause flooding any time of the
year. Those with interests along rivers and streams should check the
Hazardous Weather Outlook, which highlights any potential flood
events over the next 7 days. Go to http://weather.gov/boston and
click on the option Hazards, then click on Local Outlook.

$$

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