Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Burlington VT
912 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

...Spring Flood Potential Outlook - Final...

This is the ninth and final flood outlook for the 2017
winter/spring season. Flood outlooks are issued bi-weekly by the
National Weather Service in Burlington Vermont to summarize the
flood potential due to snowmelt and break up of river ice across
central and northern Vermont and northern New York.

...Overview...

The threat of flooding due to snowmelt and ice jams has ended for
the 2017 winter/spring season. Soil moisture and river flows
remain typically high for springtime as the effects of recent
snowmelt linger.

...Snow Depths and Water Equivalent...

Snow remained only near the higher summits in areas protected from
the sun, and were being depleted quickly with the warm spring
temperatures. Melt from the remaining snow represents only a very
small fraction of total runoff, and will have a negligible impact
on rivers.

...River and Soil Conditions...

Rivers were running freely, with near to above normal flows
typical of springtime. Soil moisture was very high from recent
snowmelt. Soil moisture and river flows will begin to decrease
with green-up as plants take up the excess soil moisture.
Groundwater levels were rebounding as well, but in east-central
and southeast Vermont levels were below normal reflecting longer
term precipitation deficits from last year. Frost has left the
ground.

Lake Champlain was near 99.5 feet, which is 1/2 foot below flood
stage, and about 1/2 foot above normal. At this level a strong
north or south wind can push the lake above flood stage at either
end of the lake, but it would take an episode of very heavy
rainfall to push the entire lake above flood stage. Lake Champlain
typically reaches its maximum height in late April and early May
and then slowly falls from May through summer.

...Weather Outlook...

An active weather pattern is expected to continue through early
May, with precipitation events every few days and total rainfall
trending above normal.

...Summary...

This is the final winter/spring flood outlook of the 2017 season.
The contribution of snowmelt and ice jams to flood potential has
ended.

It is important to note that heavy rainfall can result in
flooding at any time of the year, even in areas that have little
or no snow on the ground.

Winter/Spring Flood Outlooks will resume in January 2018.

Access current weather conditions and forecasts on our web site
at www.weather.gov/btv.

$$

Hanson


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