- Warnings
- Observations
- Forecasts
- Text Messages
- Forecast Models
- Climate
- Weather Safety
- Education/Outreach
- Information Center
- Contact Us
RSS Feeds
Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Versions: 1
2
000
FGUS73 KDVN 221938
ESFDVN
IAC011-019-031-045-055-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-113-
115-139-163-177-183-ILC011-015-067-071-073-085-109-131-155-161-177-
187-195-MOC045-199-312359-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
238 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 5/27/2013 - 8/25/2013
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DUBUQUE LD11 16.0 17.0 20.5 : 23 6 13 <5 <5 <5
DUBUQUE 17.0 18.0 21.5 : 29 8 23 6 <5 <5
BELLEVUE LD12 17.0 18.0 20.0 : 11 <5 8 <5 <5 <5
FULTON LD13 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 26 9 11 <5 <5 <5
CAMANCHE 17.0 18.5 20.5 : 24 8 11 <5 6 <5
LECLAIRE LD14 11.0 12.0 13.5 : 26 9 14 <5 9 <5
ROCK ISLAND LD15 15.0 16.0 18.0 : 36 16 27 14 11 <5
ILL. CITY LD16 15.0 16.0 18.0 : 34 16 26 9 9 <5
MUSCATINE 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 41 16 26 9 9 <5
NEW BOSTON LD17 15.0 16.5 18.5 : 44 19 27 14 13 <5
KEITHSBURG 14.0 15.5 17.0 : >95 23 27 13 13 <5
GLADSTONE LD18 10.0 12.0 14.0 : >95 23 24 11 9 <5
BURLINGTON 15.0 16.5 18.0 : 60 19 26 11 13 <5
KEOKUK LD19 16.0 17.5 19.0 : 13 6 11 <5 8 <5
GREGORY LANDING 15.0 18.0 25.0 : 63 31 21 8 <5 <5
:MAQUOKETA RIVER
MANCHESTER HWY 20 14.0 17.0 20.0 : 32 23 11 9 6 6
MAQUOKETA 24.0 26.0 28.5 : 18 11 14 8 <5 6
:WAPSIPINICON RIVER
INDEPENDENCE 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 11 11 8 9 8 6
ANAMOSA SHAW RD 14.0 15.5 19.0 : 32 21 21 16 8 8
DE WITT 11.0 11.5 12.5 : >95 60 >95 47 39 23
:CEDAR RIVER
VINTON 15.0 18.0 19.0 : 19 14 6 <5 <5 <5
CEDAR RAPIDS 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 29 16 18 14 8 6
CONESVILLE 13.0 15.0 16.5 : >95 32 >95 19 19 9
:IOWA RIVER
MARENGO 14.0 15.5 18.5 : 77 59 62 42 13 11
IOWA CITY 22.0 23.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LONE TREE 15.0 16.5 18.0 : 18 18 13 13 13 11
COLUMBUS JCT 19.0 22.0 23.0 : >95 26 18 9 13 9
WAPELLO 20.0 22.0 25.0 : >95 36 >95 21 13 9
:ENGLISH RIVER
KALONA 14.0 16.0 18.0 : 34 37 24 26 16 14
:NORTH SKUNK RIVER
SIGOURNEY 16.0 18.0 21.0 : 37 36 29 24 11 9
:SKUNK RIVER
AUGUSTA 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 29 29 19 16 13 11
:DES MOINES RIVER
KEOSAUQUA 22.0 25.0 27.0 : 14 9 8 6 <5 <5
ST FRANCISVILLE 18.0 22.0 25.0 : 34 27 16 9 6 6
:PECATONICA RIVER
FREEPORT 13.0 14.0 16.0 : 24 27 24 23 16 9
:ROCK RIVER
COMO 10.0 11.0 12.0 : 23 16 16 11 13 8
JOSLIN 12.0 14.0 16.5 : 37 26 26 19 14 11
MOLINE 12.0 13.0 14.0 : 36 27 29 19 18 13
:GREEN RIVER
GENESEO 15.0 16.5 18.0 : 14 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:LA MOINE RIVER
COLMAR 20.0 22.0 24.0 : 59 50 26 18 6 <5
:FOX RIVER
WAYLAND 15.0 18.0 20.0 : 26 21 11 8 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 5/27/2013 - 8/25/2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DUBUQUE LD11 11.8 11.8 11.9 13.2 15.5 18.3 19.9
DUBUQUE 13.4 13.4 13.5 14.7 17.2 20.0 21.5
BELLEVUE LD12 12.2 12.2 12.2 13.0 15.2 17.9 19.4
FULTON LD13 12.4 12.5 12.5 13.7 16.4 19.2 20.1
CAMANCHE 13.6 13.6 13.6 14.5 17.0 20.1 21.1
LECLAIRE LD14 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.6 11.2 14.0 14.6
ROCK ISLAND LD15 12.7 12.7 12.7 13.9 16.4 19.0 20.9
ILL. CITY LD16 12.3 12.4 12.4 13.4 16.3 19.0 21.9
MUSCATINE 13.9 13.9 13.9 15.0 18.3 20.6 22.8
NEW BOSTON LD17 13.7 13.7 13.7 14.7 17.3 20.1 22.5
KEITHSBURG 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.6 15.9 17.5 19.6
GLADSTONE LD18 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.7 12.1 14.2 16.5
BURLINGTON 14.9 14.9 14.9 15.4 16.9 18.8 20.5
KEOKUK LD19 11.9 11.9 12.0 13.0 15.0 18.0 19.5
GREGORY LANDING 14.8 14.8 14.8 16.3 17.8 20.0 21.9
:MAQUOKETA RIVER
MANCHESTER HWY 20 4.9 7.0 8.4 11.8 15.2 18.5 22.4
MAQUOKETA 11.9 12.9 15.0 18.4 22.0 27.1 31.4
:WAPSIPINICON RIVER
INDEPENDENCE 6.8 6.8 7.1 8.2 9.6 12.9 16.9
ANAMOSA SHAW RD 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.0 15.2 18.2 21.8
DE WITT 11.7 11.7 11.7 12.2 12.7 13.3 13.6
:CEDAR RIVER
VINTON 9.5 9.5 10.4 12.9 14.4 16.4 18.4
CEDAR RAPIDS 8.9 8.9 8.9 10.3 12.3 15.6 18.0
CONESVILLE 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 17.9 18.6
:IOWA RIVER
MARENGO 10.6 12.3 14.8 16.2 17.8 18.9 19.7
IOWA CITY 15.8 15.9 15.9 16.0 17.2 19.7 22.5
LONE TREE 10.7 10.7 11.5 12.8 14.2 18.4 19.3
COLUMBUS JCT 21.1 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.4 23.9 26.0
WAPELLO 23.0 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.5 25.4 26.3
:ENGLISH RIVER
KALONA 5.9 7.1 8.8 12.0 15.9 20.7 22.1
:NORTH SKUNK RIVER
SIGOURNEY 7.7 9.5 12.5 15.0 19.4 21.7 23.1
:SKUNK RIVER
AUGUSTA 5.2 6.1 8.5 12.3 16.2 21.2 23.2
:DES MOINES RIVER
KEOSAUQUA 15.6 15.7 16.1 17.3 19.3 23.8 27.1
ST FRANCISVILLE 13.8 14.0 14.6 16.5 18.9 23.8 25.9
:PECATONICA RIVER
FREEPORT 7.0 7.1 8.1 10.2 13.8 16.8 17.2
:ROCK RIVER
COMO 5.8 5.8 5.8 6.5 9.7 13.3 14.9
JOSLIN 9.8 9.8 9.9 11.4 14.1 18.7 19.1
MOLINE 10.4 10.4 10.4 11.3 13.4 16.6 17.3
:GREEN RIVER
GENESEO 5.4 5.9 7.3 9.4 13.4 15.8 17.2
:LA MOINE RIVER
COLMAR 9.2 12.3 16.6 21.1 22.3 23.5 24.1
:FOX RIVER
WAYLAND 3.2 5.0 7.0 11.2 15.3 18.8 19.3
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 5/27/2013 - 8/25/2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DUBUQUE LD11 6.8 6.3 5.5 4.7 4.3 4.2 4.1
DUBUQUE 9.2 8.7 8.2 7.7 7.4 7.3 7.2
BELLEVUE LD12 7.6 6.7 5.6 4.5 3.9 3.7 3.5
FULTON LD13 7.4 6.3 5.4 4.7 4.4 4.3 4.2
CAMANCHE 10.2 9.7 9.3 9.0 8.8 8.8 8.8
LECLAIRE LD14 6.1 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3
ROCK ISLAND LD15 7.7 6.4 5.7 4.9 4.4 4.2 3.9
ILL. CITY LD16 6.1 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.6 3.4 3.3
MUSCATINE 7.8 7.1 6.6 6.3 6.0 5.9 5.7
NEW BOSTON LD17 7.4 5.8 4.9 4.0 3.6 3.3 3.1
KEITHSBURG 8.6 7.1 6.6 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.3
GLADSTONE LD18 3.9 2.8 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.9
BURLINGTON 9.9 8.8 8.4 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.4
KEOKUK LD19 5.8 5.0 4.3 3.5 2.5 2.4 2.2
GREGORY LANDING 8.2 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.2
:MAQUOKETA RIVER
MANCHESTER HWY 20 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8
MAQUOKETA 11.2 11.0 10.9 10.5 10.3 10.3 10.1
:WAPSIPINICON RIVER
INDEPENDENCE 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6
ANAMOSA SHAW RD 5.4 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6
DE WITT 6.2 5.7 5.5 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.8
:CEDAR RIVER
VINTON 4.4 3.9 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.6
CEDAR RAPIDS 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5
CONESVILLE 7.9 7.4 7.0 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.2
:IOWA RIVER
MARENGO 8.1 7.5 7.3 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.4
IOWA CITY 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.0 9.7 9.5 9.4
LONE TREE 7.0 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.4 5.2 5.0
COLUMBUS JCT 12.6 11.3 10.4 10.0 9.8 9.5 9.4
WAPELLO 14.6 13.5 12.5 12.0 11.8 11.5 11.3
:ENGLISH RIVER
KALONA 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2
:NORTH SKUNK RIVER
SIGOURNEY 5.2 5.1 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.1
:SKUNK RIVER
AUGUSTA 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3
:DES MOINES RIVER
KEOSAUQUA 15.1 14.7 11.3 11.0 10.7 10.4 10.3
ST FRANCISVILLE 13.2 12.6 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.5 6.3
:PECATONICA RIVER
FREEPORT 4.8 4.7 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6
:ROCK RIVER
COMO 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.9
JOSLIN 5.8 5.6 5.3 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.3
MOLINE 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.8
:GREEN RIVER
GENESEO 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2
:LA MOINE RIVER
COLMAR 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1
:FOX RIVER
WAYLAND 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.
ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT
ON THE INTERNET AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/QUADCITIES
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE JUNE.
$$
MAS
- National Weather Service
- Aberdeen, SD Weather Forecast Office
- 824 Brown County 14 South
- Aberdeen, SD 57401-9311
- 605-225-0519
- Page Author: ABR Webmaster
- Web Master's E-mail: w-abr.webmaster@noaa.gov
- Page last modified: Jun 3rd, 2013 15:31 UTC