Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FGUS75 KGJT 112014
ESFGJT
COC007-029-033-037-045-051-053-067-077-081-083-085-091-097-103-
107-111-113-UTC009-019-037-047-132015-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
214 PM MDT MON APR 11 2016

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO
AND EASTERN UTAH NUMBER 3...

THIS IS THE THIRD ISSUANCE OF THE 2016 SPRING RUNOFF OUTLOOK FOR
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH COVERING ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE
YAMPA/WHITE... UPPER COLORADO...DUCHESNE...GREEN...GUNNISON...
DOLORES AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASINS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING 2016 FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT IS NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS ALL OF THE WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH BASINS
AT THIS TIME. AS OF EARLY APRIL NO RIVER FORECAST POINTS ACROSS
THIS REGION ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. OF THESE
POINTS...ONLY A FEW ARE FORECAST TO PEAK ABOVE BANKFULL AT THE
10% EXCEEDENCE LEVEL.

THE CURRENT VOLUME FORECASTS FOR THE APRIL THROUGH JULY TIME
PERIOD ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR ALL OF THE RIVER BASINS ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN UTAH. THE
OFFICIAL MONTHLY VOLUME FORECASTS FOR WESTERN COLORADO AS OF APRIL
1 IS IN A TABLE BELOW.

SPRING TEMPERATURES AFFECT THE PATTERN OF SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND
CONSEQUENTLY THE MAGNITUDE OF PEAK FLOWS. IN NORMAL
YEARS...ADDITIONAL SNOWPACK CAN ACCUMULATE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH APRIL. HEAVY RAINFALL OR UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES DURING THE SNOWMELT SEASON CAN AFFECT TOTAL RUNOFF
VOLUME AND INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLOODING.

OBSERVED PRECIPITATION
----------------------

MARCH BASIN AVERAGED PRECIPITATION VARIED WIDELY ACROSS THE BASIN.  MUCH
ABOVE AVERAGE AMOUNTS WERE OBSERVED IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE YAMPA AND UPPER
COLORADO RIVER BASINS AT 135% OF AVERAGE, WHILE FURTHER WEST IN THOSE BASINS
PRECIPITATION WAS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.  BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OCCURRED IN THE GUNNISON RIVER BASIN WITH OVERALL VALUES NEAR 85% OF AVERAGE.
PRECIPITATION WAS MUCH BELOW NORMAL IN THE DOLORES AND SAN JUAN BASINS WITH
65% AND 50% OF AVERAGE, RESPECTIVELY.  WATER YEAR PRECIPITATION REMAINS NEAR
AVERAGE IN THE NORTHERN BASINS...BUT THE SOUTHERN BASINS ARE BEGINNING TO
APPROACH BELOW AVERAGE VALUES.


BASIN CONDITIONS (% OF AVERAGE) AS OF APRIL 1:

 SUBBASIN                  MAR    OCT-MAR
                          PRECIP  PRECIP
----------------------    ------  -------
   UPPER COLORADO           105      95
   GUNNISON                  85     100
   DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL        65     115
   SAN JUAN                  55     110
   YAMPA/WHITE              125      90
   UPPER GREEN              110      95
   DUCHESNE                 110      90
   SOUTHEAST UTAH            50     120

OBSERVED SNOWPACK
-----------------

APRIL 1ST BASIN AVERAGED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ALSO VARIED GREATLY...MIRRORING
THE MARCH PRECIPITATION PATTERN.  THE YAMPA AND UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASINS ARE
RIGHT NEAR MEDIAN OVERALL...ALTHOUGH SOME INDIVIDUAL SNOTEL SITES ARE ABOVE OR
BELOW DEPENDING ON WHERE THEY ARE IN THE BASIN. THE GUNNISON BASIN
IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT 90% OF MEDIAN...WHILE THE SAN JUAN AND
DOLORES BASINS WERE AT 80% OF MEDIAN AS OF APRIL 1 AND HAVE
ALREADY EXPERIENCED SOME SNOWMELT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

BASIN SNOWPACK CONDITIONS...PERCENT OF MEDIAN...FOR THE PERIOD
OCTOBER 1 2015 TO APRIL 1 2016:
----------------------------------
IN WESTERN COLORADO...

BASIN                   SNOW WATER
                        EQUIVALENT
-----                   ----------
YAMPA/WHITE                100
UPPER COLORADO HDWRS       105
GUNNISON                    90
DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL          80
SAN JUAN                    80
ROARING FORK                94
ANIMAS                      76


IN EASTERN UTAH...

BASIN                   SNOW WATER
                        EQUIVALENT
-----                   ----------
GREEN                       99
DUCHESNE                    85
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH          111
----------------------------------


MEAN DAILY PEAK FLOW FORECASTS IN CFS:


LOCATION                   FLOOD     FCST   FORECAST FLOWS
                            FLOW     DATE      90%    75%    50%    25%    10%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YAMPA - STEAMBOAT SPRINGS   5930 2016-04-01   2200   2500   3000   4000   5000
ELK - MILNER, NR            5718 2016-04-01   2500   3000   3500   4000   5000
YAMPA - MAYBELL, NR        21241 2016-04-01   6500   7500   8000   9000  11500
LITTLE SNAKE - LILY, NR     -999 2016-04-01   2300   2600   3300   4000   5000
YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK     20685 2016-04-01   8500  10000  11000  12500  15500
WHITE - MEEKER, NR          8597 2016-04-01   1900   2200   2400   2700   3200
SNAKE - MONTEZUMA, NR       1850 2016-04-01    200    250    300    400    450
TENMILE CK - FRISCO, N TE   1550 2016-04-01    450    550    600    750    900
STRAIGHT CK - LASKEY GULC    440 2016-04-01     50     60     80     95    115
EAGLE - GYPSUM, BLO         6500 2016-04-01   2000   2200   2700   3500   4900
COLORADO - DOTSERO, NR     17000 2016-04-01   4500   5000   6500   8500  13000
CRYSTAL - REDSTONE, NR, A   3100 2016-04-01   1000   1250   1500   1750   2200
ROARING FORK - GLENWOOD S  17000 2016-04-01   3000   3500   4200   5200   6800
COLORADO - CAMEO, NR       26000 2016-04-01   8500   9500  12500  16000  23000
EAST - ALMONT               3170 2016-04-01    950   1100   1200   1600   1900
NF GUNNISON - SOMERSET, N  13100 2016-04-01   1700   2100   2400   2900   3200
SURFACE CK - CEDAREDGE      1320 2016-04-01    100    130    180    250    300
GUNNISON - GRAND JUNCTION  19470 2016-04-01   7500   8000   8000   8200   8500
DOLORES - RICO, BLO         1750 2016-04-01    650    740    790    920   1060
DOLORES - DOLORES           7130 2016-04-01   1800   2000   2400   2600   2900
SAN MIGUEL - PLACERVILLE,   3190 2016-04-01    880    990   1100   1130   1450
COLORADO - CO-UT STATE LI  46000 2016-04-01  14000  16000  19000  24000  32000
SAN JUAN - PAGOSA SPRINGS   5000 2016-04-01   1500   1650   1850   2100   2400
ANIMAS - DURANGO           10200 2016-04-01   2400   2800   3300   3800   4200
ANIMAS - FARMINGTON         9110 2016-04-01   2400   2900   3500   4000   4300
MANCOS - MANCOS, NR         2970 2016-04-01    100    150    250    300    450


RESERVOIR STORAGE (KAF) AS OF MARCH 31:

                           C U R R E N T   Y R      1981-2010
                          EOM      % OF     % OF    MAR 31  USABLE
                          STORAGE  AVERAGE  CAPACITYAVG STORAGE   CAPACITY
   COLORADO - LAKE GRANB|    378.4|    120|     77||  314.3|     490.3|
   WILLOW CK - WILLOW CK|      9.2|    112|    101||    8.2|       9.1|
   WILLIAMS FORK - WILLI|     75.7|    124|     78||   60.8|      96.9|
   MUDDY CK - WOLFORD MO|     41.9|     96|     63||   43.7|      66.0|
   BLUE - DILLON RES    |    235.9|    109|     93||  215.5|     254.0|
   BLUE - GREEN MTN RES |     61.6|     93|     42||   65.9|     146.9|
   HOMESTAKE CK - HOMEST|  -9999.0|    -99|    -99||   25.1|      43.0|
   FRYING PAN - RUEDI RE|     67.5|    107|     66||   63.2|     102.0|
   PLATEAU CK - VEGA RES|     14.2|    100|     43||   14.2|      32.9|
   TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK |     67.4|    108|     64||   62.4|     106.2|
   GUNNISON - BLUE MESA |    563.0|    124|     68||  454.9|     829.5|
   GUNNISON - MORROW POI|    111.3|    100|     95||  111.7|     117.0|
   GUNNISON - CRYSTAL RE|     16.8|    103|     96||   16.2|      17.5|
   MUDDY CK - PAONIA RES|      3.2|    104|     19||    3.1|      16.7|
   UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY|     64.5|     92|     78||   70.0|      83.0|
   DOLORES - MCPHEE RES |    255.8|     90|     67||  285.4|     381.1|
   LOS PINOS - VALLECITO|     93.6|    148|     75||   63.2|     125.4|
   SAN JUAN - NAVAJO RES|   1440.6|    110|     85|| 1310.4|    1696.0|
   FLORIDA - LEMON RES, |     23.3|    107|     59||   21.7|      39.8|
   COLORADO - LAKE POWEL|  11019.0|     65|     45||16941.7|   24322.0|


STREAMFLOW FORECASTS:
DEVELOPED:                    APR 1 2016

YAMPA/WHITE BASINS
                           PERIOD     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
YAMPA RIVER
  STAGECOACH RSVR, ABV     APR-JUL     21    91     28     23   19.8   17.1     23
  STEAMBOAT SPRINGS        APR-JUL    270   104    345    305    235    210    260
ELK RIVER
  MILNER, NR               APR-JUL    315    98    390    370    295    250    320
ELKHEAD CK
  LONG GULCH, ABV, HAYDEN  APR-JUL     60    82     82     69     54     43     73
YAMPA RIVER
  MAYBELL, NR              APR-JUL    860    92   1050    970    780    640    935
LITTLE SNAKE RIVER
  SLATER, NR               APR-JUL    130    83    165    143    117     87    156
  DIXON, NR                APR-JUL    270    78    380    305    240    177    345
  LILY, NR                 APR-JUL    280    81    420    315    245    176    345
YAMPA RIVER
  DEERLODGE PARK           APR-JUL   1130    91   1450   1290   1030    825   1240
WHITE RIVER
  MEEKER, NR               APR-JUL    230    82    300    255    210    190    280
  WATSON, NR               APR-JUL    245    88    320    265    225    205    280

UPPER COLORADO, ABOVE GUNNISON BASIN
                           PERIOD     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE GRANBY, GRANBY, NR  APR-JUL    195    89    255    210    175    145    220
WILLOW CK
  WILLOW CK RES, GRANBY,   APR-JUL     54   115     75     60     46     35     47
FRASER RIVER
  WINTER PARK              APR-JUL     21   108     25     23   19.0   17.0   19.4
WILLIAMS FORK RIVER
  WILLIAMS FORK RES, PARS  APR-JUL     95    99    120    100     85     70     96
BLUE RIVER
  DILLON RES               APR-JUL    155    95    200    168    140    120    163
  GREEN MTN RES            APR-JUL    255    93    335    280    230    200    275
MUDDY CK
  WOLFORD MOUNTAIN RESERV  APR-JUL     55   102     77     65     45     37     54
COLORADO RIVER
  KREMMLING, NR            APR-JUL    820    95   1100    900    740    650    860
EAGLE RIVER
  GYPSUM, BLO              APR-JUL    295    88    415    335    255    220    335
COLORADO RIVER
  DOTSERO, NR              APR-JUL   1300    93   1760   1390   1140   1020   1400
FRYING PAN RIVER
  RUEDI RES, BASALT, NR    APR-JUL    117    84    165    127    105     84    139
ROARING FORK RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS         APR-JUL    550    80    735    590    495    400    690
COLORADO RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS, BLO    APR-JUL   1870    89   2540   2020   1690   1480   2110
  CAMEO, NR                APR-JUL   2060    87   2800   2220   1850   1630   2360
PLATEAU CK
  CAMEO, NR                APR-JUL    100    81    150    110     85     60    124

GUNNISON BASIN
                           PERIOD     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
TAYLOR RIVER
  TAYLOR PARK RES          APR-JUL     76    77    100     85     71     65     99
  ALMONT                   APR-JUL    115    74    158    128    107     95    155
EAST RIVER
  ALMONT                   APR-JUL    128    70    178    141    117    100    182
GUNNISON RIVER
  GUNNISON, NR             APR-JUL    265    72    380    300    235    210    370
TOMICHI CK
  GUNNISON                 APR-JUL     57    77     83     69     47     37     74
LAKE FORK RIVER
  GATEVIEW                 APR-JUL    115    93    155    130    100     87    123
GUNNISON RIVER
  BLUE MESA RES            APR-JUL    515    76    730    590    465    420    675
  MORROW POINT RES         APR-JUL    560    76    775    635    510    465    740
  CRYSTAL RES              APR-JUL    640    77    855    715    590    545    835
MUDDY CK
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR  MAR-JUN     70    73     95     83     62     54     96
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR  APR-JUN     65    71     90     78     57     49     91
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR  APR-JUL     69    71     94     82     61     54     97
NF GUNNISON RIVER
  SOMERSET, NR             APR-JUL    225    76    300    255    200    170    295
SURFACE CK
  CEDAREDGE                APR-JUL   13.5    80   19.0   15.5   11.0    8.5   16.8
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER
  RIDGWAY RES              APR-JUL     92    91    125    105     84     74    101
  COLONA                   APR-JUL    120    88    170    140    104     85    137
  DELTA                    APR-JUL     96    85    145    117     78     66    113
GUNNISON RIVER
  GRAND JUNCTION, NR       APR-JUL   1150    78   1580   1300   1050    940   1480

DOLORES BASIN
                           PERIOD     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
DOLORES RIVER
  DOLORES                  APR-JUL    220    90    280    255    195    170    245
  MCPHEE RES               APR-JUL    255    86    325    295    220    200    295
SAN MIGUEL RIVER
  PLACERVILLE, NR          APR-JUL    120    94    150    132    106     95    128
DOLORES RIVER
  CISCO, NR                APR-JUL    470    83    610    535    405    360    565

UPPER COLORADO, CONFLUENCE
                           PERIOD     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  CISCO, NR                APR-JUL   3700    83   5170   4020   3400   2900   4440

SAN JUAN BASIN
                           PERIOD     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
SAN JUAN RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS           APR-JUL    175    81    230    195    153    135    215
  CARRACAS, NR             APR-JUL    285    75    375    310    240    220    380
RIO BLANCO RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS, NR, BLA  APR-JUL     45    83     56     50     38     33     54
NAVAJO RIVER
  CHROMO, NR, OSO DIV DAM  APR-JUL     52    80     66     57     43     37     65
PIEDRA RIVER
  ARBOLES, NR              APR-JUL    160    76    230    180    140    120    210
LOS PINOS RIVER
  VALLECITO RES, BAYFIELD  APR-JUL    155    80    210    170    131    113    194
SAN JUAN RIVER
  NAVAJO RES, ARCHULETA,   APR-JUL    530    72    740    600    415    380    735
FLORIDA RIVER
  LEMON RES, DURANGO, NR   APR-JUL     39    71     58     45     33     26     55
ANIMAS RIVER
  DURANGO                  APR-JUL    345    83    450    390    295    260    415
SAN JUAN RIVER
  FARMINGTON               APR-JUL    810    74   1150    930    660    610   1100
LA PLATA RIVER
  HESPERUS                 APR-JUL   18.0    78     25     21   16.0   12.0     23
SAN JUAN RIVER
  BLUFF, NR                APR-JUL    790    72   1140    900    640    590   1100
MANCOS RIVER
  MANCOS, NR               APR-JUL     27    87     37     30   22.0   19.0     31

LAKE POWELL
                           PERIOD     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE POWELL, GLEN CYN D  APR-JUL   5300    74   7650   6160   4750   3850   7160

50% MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET.
%AVG  MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 1981-2010 AVERAGE.
10% VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
30% VOLUME THAT HAS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
90% VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
70% VOLUME THAT HAS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
AVG   AVERAGE VOLUME FOR THE 1981-2010 PERIOD.

ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

CLIMATE OUTLOOK
---------------

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR THE THREE MONTH PERIOD
OF APRIL THROUGH JUNE 2016 INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ENSO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND IS FORECAST TO BE IN A NEUTRAL PHASE BY LATE SPRING TO EARLY
SUMMER 2016. FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
INTO THE MIDDLE OF ARPIL.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION AND CONDITIONS COULD
CHANGE BEFORE THE RUNOFF BEGINS.

CHANGING HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED
AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/GJT.
FOR DETAILED PEAK FLOW FORECASTS VISIT
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCT/PEAK/PEAK.CGI

DATA FROM THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...THE COLORADO
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WERE USED TO PRODUCE THIS PRODUCT.


$$


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