Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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MEC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-023-025-027-031-NHC001-003-005-007-
009-011-013-015-017-019-212100-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Gray ME
350 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST MAINE. FOR NORTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN MAINE THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IS NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IS
NEAR NORMAL IN WESTERN MAINE.

THIS IS THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED FLOOD
POTENTIAL OUTLOOKS THAT ARE ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING
SEASONS. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS UNTIL THE
END OF THE SNOW MELT SEASON... AND WILL ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING BASED A NUMBER OF FACTORS.

...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...

MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE CONTINUE TO BE IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
JANUARY. THE STORM TRACK OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS TO 14 DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL IN DOUBT BUT MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST WITH MORE WINTER LIKE PRECIPITATION IN THE
INTERIOR.

THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 10 FORECAST AND 8 TO
14 DAY FORECAST CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE MORE LIKE MID WINTER WILL RETURN IN JANUARY.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 2
AND 12 INCHES. FROM CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER
SNOW DEPTH AVERAGES FROM 1 TO 2 FEET. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
FOUND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHEAST COOS COUNTY. A RECENT REPORT FROM HERMIT LAKE AT
ELEVATION OF 3750 FEET ON THE SLOPES OF MOUNT WASHINGTON INDICATED
52 INCHES OF SNOW. MOOSE FALLS IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE REPORTED
25 INCHES OF SNOW. SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE ARE GENERALLY
NEAR TO SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS AVERAGE
AROUND 1 INCH. FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AT MOOSE FALLS THE 25 INCHES OF
SNOW THERE HAD 5.8 INCHES OF WATER IN IT. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS
ARE NEAR NORMAL TO SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

...WESTERN MAINE...

SNOW DEPTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 6
INCHES. SNOW DEPTH INCREASES RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE 1
TO 2 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOW DEPTH IS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE IT IS BELOW
NORMAL.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 INCHES AND INCREASE RAPIDLY INLAND TO 3 TO
6 INCHES OF WATER. UP TO 8 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IS LIKELY
ABOVE ABOUT 2500 NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS
ARE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHERE THEY
ARE BELOW NORMAL THE TIME OF YEAR.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY MAPS INDICATE THAT SOIL MOISTURE IS NORMAL
ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN. IN NEW HAMPSHIRE SOIL IS BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONGER TERM PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX IS INDICATING NEAR
NORMAL MOISTURE CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

RESERVOIRS IN THE KENNEBEC RIVER BASIN ARE ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
FOR THE TIME.

RESERVOIRS IN THE ANDROSCOGGIN RIVER BASIN ARE 64 PERCENT FULL
WHICH IS 8.3 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL.

GROUNDWATER LEVELS COURTESY OF THE USGS ARE SHOWING IMPROVEMENT.
MOST WELLS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER A
FEW SCATTERED MONITORING WELLS HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AND SOME WELLS CONTINUE TO RISE.

GROUNDWATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SPRING UNLESS WE
RECEIVE AT LEAST A FEW MONTHS OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
DURING THE WINTER. HAVING A SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER IN THE SPRING
WOULD HELP TO ALLEVIATE ANY GROUNDWATER SHORTAGES.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

ICE COVER HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AND
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. RECENT ICE MEASUREMENTS BY THE
USGS INDICATE A FOOT OF ICE ON THE SANDY RIVER AS WELL AS THE
SWIFT RIVER. THE WILD RIVER IN GILEAD HAS ABOUT 14 INCHES OF ICE.
A SMALL ICE JAM EXISTS ON THE KENNEBEC RIVER AT AUGUSTA.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST MAINE. FOR NORTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN MAINE THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM
SNOWMELT ALONE. RAINFALL...HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF
TIME...IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY
OF FLOODING.

ANOTHER WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8
AM FRIDAY JANUARY 3.

$$

TFH



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