Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FGUS71 KILN 192125
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INC029-041-047-115-137-155-161-177-KYC015-023-037-041-077-081-117-
135-161-187-191-201-OHC001-011-015-017-021-023-025-027-037-041-
045-047-049-057-061-065-071-073-089-091-097-107-109-113-129-131-
135-141-145-149-159-165-052130-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
425 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

...FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH MARCH 5 IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MID OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF THE PERIOD...THEN BECOMING
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...

THIS OUTLOOK IS THE THIRD IN A BIWEEKLY SERIES OF OUTLOOKS FOR
THE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING.

NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WITH SOME POINTS POSSIBLY REACHING
MODERATE OR MAJOR FLOOD LEVELS.

THE FLOOD OUTLOOK IS ISSUED BY LOCAL NWS OFFICES IN WINTER AND
EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN CONDITIONS AND TO ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND
FORECAST HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS.

THE FACTORS CONSIDERED WHEN DETERMINING FLOOD POTENTIAL INCLUDE
CURRENT STREAMFLOW AND RESERVOIR LEVELS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD...WATER EQUIVALENT IN ANY SNOW PACK...SOIL MOISTURE
AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION.

...SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...
SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA RANGED FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE UPPER
REACHES OF THE ST MARYS/AUGLAIZE...GREAT MIAMI AND SCIOTO RIVER
BASINS...TO 4 TO 6 INCHES IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHEAST
INDIANA...TO KENTUCKY SNOW OF 6 TO AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES. WATER
EQUIVALENT OF THE SNOW WERE GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25" IN THE
NORTH...TO UNDER 0.5" THROUGH MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...BUT SOME
AREAS OF KENTUCKY APPROACHED 0.70" OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

...STREAMFLOW...
STREAMFLOW VALUES WERE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY FOR MOST OF
OHIO AND INDIANA...BASED ON THE 14-DAY MEAN STREAMFLOW FROM THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY. SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY HAD BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOWS.

...ICE...
WHILE COLD TEMPERATURES HAS RESULTED IN SOME ICE ON AREA
RIVERS...THE ICE IS MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE BANKS AND IS NOT
AFFECTING STREAMFLOW.

...SOIL MOISTURE...
SOIL MOISTURE WAS NEAR TO EVEN BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH FROZEN SOILS
NOW EXIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH RECENT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
OPTIMIZING ANY FUTURE RUNOFF.

...RESERVOIR CAPACITY...
AREA RESERVOIRS ARE EITHER AT OR EVEN BELOW WINTER
POOL...ALLOWING FOR A GREATER FLOOD CONTROL CAPACITY.

...WEATHER TRENDS AND PRECIPITATION...
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...A SYSTEM THE WEEKEND OF
FEBRUARY 21 WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW POTENTIALLY CHANGING TO
RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY. THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SNOW. AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST WEEK OF THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD...WITH NO ADDITIONAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

REAL TIME RIVER INFORMATION AND FORECASTS FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
ALONG RIVERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHERN KENTUCKY
AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA CAN BE FOUND AT (ALL IN LOWERCASE):
WEATHER.GOV/ILN/ AND THEN CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB.


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