Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FGUS74 KJAN 282206
ESFJAN
ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
300000-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
200 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016


...FLASH FLOODING AND ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...


A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE STRONG DIVERGENCE OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE PLUS A STRONG INFLUX
OF VERY MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. OTHER ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL RAINFALL
WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MUCH HIGHER LOCAL AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE. AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY, THE LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE BETTER DEFINED.

RECENT RAINFALL AND RAINFALL FROM TWO AND HALF WEEKS AGO HAS LEFT MANY
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE WITH STANDING WATER. MANY OF THE
RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS, NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI YAZOO DELTA REGION ARE NEAR OR STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THE SOILS ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN VERY MOIST. EVEN THOUGH SPRING
VEGETATION GROWTH HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT SINCE THE LAST HEAVY
RAINFALL, IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO LESSEN THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING AND INCREASED RIVER FLOODING FROM EXPECTED HEAVY
RAINS. THE GREATEST RIVER FLOOD THREATS ARE ALONG THE BIG SUNFLOWER
BASIN IN MISSISSIPPI, BAYOU BARTHOLOMEW IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA, BAYOU MACON, BOEUF, AND TENSAS RIVERS IN
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA, AND ALSO THE LOWER OUACHITA AND BLACK RIVER
BASINS IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. MANY OF THESE RIVERS AND BAYOUS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A REAL ISSUE
ALONG TRIBUTARIES THAT FEED INTO THESE RIVERS AND BAYOUS. THE BIG
BLACK RIVER HAS RECEDED BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT COULD RISE UP VERY
RAPIDLY WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLY APPROACHING LEVELS REACHED
IN THE RECENT MARCH FLOODING.

RIVERS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF NATCHEZ TRACE INCLUDING THE PEARL, LEAF,
CHICKASAWHAY RIVER AND TALLAHALA CREEK ARE NOT OUT OF THE THREAT AREA.
EVEN WITH MOST RIVERS WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE, HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
3 TO 5 INCHES IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA. MOIST SOILS WILL LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND RAPID RIVER RISES. IF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT,
THIS AREA COULD SEE A GREATER THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AXIS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA AND YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AS WE APPROACH LATE WEEK.

$$

MVP



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