Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
726 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...

...ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING THIS SPRING...

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...
AFTER A RELATIVELY WET WINTER ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 20 INCHES MANY OF THE RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGHER
THAN NORMAL...AND EVEN WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WINTER
RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA RIVER LEVELS ARE
STILL RUNNING NEAR NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL WINTER RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL GEORGIA HAS STILL PRODUCED ABOVE NORMAL RIVER
LEVELS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN WITH SEVERAL MINOR FLOODING
EVENTS THROUGH THE WINTER SEASON.

...SOIL MOISTURE...
SOILS ARE MOIST ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA FROM THE RECENT FEBRUARY
RAINS AND MANY PONDS AND SMALL LAKES ARE ALSO FULL...AS ARE MANY OF
THE SMALLER CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES. THIS SUGGESTS LIMITED CAPACITY TO
HOLD FURTHER RAINFALL THIS SPRING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN INCREASED
DIRECT RUNOFF INTO THE PRIMARY DRAINAGE SYSTEMS THROUGH THE SPRING
AND INTO THE EARLY SUMMER. SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IS
RUNNING CLOSER TO NORMAL DUE TO A DRIER FEBRUARY.

...CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...
STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN HAS JUST FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE RECENTLY NEAR BAXLEY AND EVERETT CITY AND REMAINS
ELEVATED. ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA IN
FEBRUARY HAS MANY RIVER BASINS INCLUDING THE SANTA FE RUNNING NEAR
BANKFULL. THIS HAS ALSO BROUGHT ALL RIVERS WELL ABOVE BASE FLOWS.

...LONG TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...
THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/
ISSUED IN LATE FEBRUARY SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE, BELOW OR
NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS REGION. SEE CPC WEB PAGE FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE NEXT 8 TO 14 DAYS...INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED AS A SERIES OF ENERGETIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR MARCH.
LATER THIS SPRING AS THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A DRIER
PATTERN COMMON TO APRIL AND MAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE.

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...

RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGIES FOR THE ALTAMAHA...SATILLA...ALAPAHA...
SUWANNEE...ST MARYS AND SANTA FE WATERSHEDS WHICH INCLUDE THEIR
ASSOCIATED UPSTREAM TRIBUTARIES SUGGEST THE FREQUENCY OF RIVER
FLOODING TYPICALLY PEAKS FROM EARLY MARCH THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK IN
APRIL ON AVERAGE.

REGARDLESS OF THE CLIMATE FORECAST...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM ANY SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL EXACERBATE THE ALREADY ELEVATED
FLOWS WITHIN THE WATERSHED. THEREFORE...BASED ON THE COMBINATION
OF SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGH GROUND
WATER CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE AN ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA THIS SPRING. SHOULD DRIER CONDITIONS
DEVELOP THIS SPRING...RIVER FLOWS WOULD LIKELY RETURN TO BASE LEVELS
AND CREATE A DECREASING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR MAY THAT WOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE SUMMER.

&&

INFORMATION USED TO COMPILE THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS
PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER AND THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY.

FOR DETAILED WEB INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND
FORECASTS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

GO TO: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAX
AND UNDER CURRENT WEATHER...CLICK ON "RIVERS/LAKES"

FOR PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS...
GO TO: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP

$$

HESS




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