Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FGUS72 KMHX 172012
ESFMHX
NCC013-031-049-055-061-079-095-103-107-117-133-137-147-177-187-
012015-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
412 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL POTENTIAL OF RIVER
FLOODING ACROSS MOST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
APRIL INTO MAY...

HISTORICALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS...THE RIVER FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN
EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOOD EVENTS
INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN EARLY TO MID
MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION.

FOR NORTH CAROLINA...WITH NEAR NORMAL STREAMFLOWS BEING CURRENTLY
OBSERVED AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF APRIL...THE THREAT FOR RIVER FLOODING FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR IS NEAR NORMAL. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE MONTH OF
APRIL...ESPECIALLY BY LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY...IS TYPICALLY A
PERIOD WHERE THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOODS BEGINS TO SUBSIDE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AS NORMAL RAINFALL DECREASES AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
INCREASES. THIS IS THE TRANSITION TIME FROM WINTER AND EARLY
SPRING RECHARGE TO LATE SPRING AND SUMMER WARMING
TEMPERATURES...VEGETATION COMING OUT OF DORMANCY AND MORE
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS AS OF APRIL 16TH ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE
CAROLINAS.

PAST PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON
SERFC MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS MOST OF REGION.

RESERVOIRS...MANY RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR THEIR TARGET POOLS.

SNOW PACK...NO SNOWPACK AT THIS TIME.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS
INDICATE A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IN THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER PATTERN AFTER THIS
WEEKEND SHOWS LESSER CHANCES AT ANY SIGNFICANT RAINFALL EVENTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS ALSO
HIGHLIGHTING BETTER CHANCES FOR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...NEUTRAL ENSO
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SPRING WITH POTENTIAL WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS BEGINNING IN THE
SUMMER.  AS A RESULT AND BASED ON THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
FORECAST...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF APRIL THROUGH MAY. WITH EL NINO
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS SUMMER...THIS MAY LEAD TO HIGHER FLOOD
POTENTIAL AS WELL. SEE CPC WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES.  THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
IS UPDATED EVERY TWO TO THREE WEEKS.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE MENU.

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