Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FGUS72 KMHX 010401 CCA
ESFMHX
NCC013-031-049-055-061-079-095-103-107-117-133-137-147-177-187-
021915-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1201 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NORMAL POTENTIAL OF RIVER
FLOODING ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH APRIL...

HISTORICALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS...THE RIVER FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN
EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOOD EVENTS
INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN EARLY TO MID
MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS FLOOD
SEASON BEGAN EARLY AND WAS PRETTY EXTENSIVE...SINCE JANUARY
1...WE HAVE HAD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN MOST OF THE AREA.

FOR THIS REGION...STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL. SHORT TERM
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL LOOKS NEAR NORMAL IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MEDIUM
AND LONG RANGE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE LEANS TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THROUGH APRIL. THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF IS NOT AS
SIGNIFICANT AS IT WAS EARLIER THIS WINTER. OVERALL...THE RELATIVE
RISK HAS GONE FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS AS OF MARCH 31ST ARE MIXED. IN NORTH PARTS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...THERE ARE A MIX OF NORMAL AND BELOW NORMAL
STREAMFLOWS...THIS HAS BEEN EVOLVING OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS DUE
TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA.

PAST PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON
SERFC MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS TYPICALLY A WET TIME OF YEAR FOR
THE AREA.

RESERVOIRS...MOST RESERVOIRS ARE AT THEIR TARGET POOLS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS
INDICATE A NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WITH STORM
SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ONCE OR TWICE A WEEK. THE LATEST
CPC 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK IS INDICATING WETTER THAN THE NORMAL
PATTERN.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
WINTER INTO EARLY SPRING...BASED ON THE CPC LONG LEAD
OUTLOOK...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL AS YOU APPROACH THE
COASTAL AREA. THIS IS BASED ON CPC CLIMATE MODEL FORECASTS AND THE
CURRENT EL NINO ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WITH ALL THE OTHER FACTORS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...NORMAL FLOODING IS STILL EXPECTED.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES. THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK IS UPDATED EVERY MONTH.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE MENU.

$$



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