Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
210 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2017

...Spring Flood Outlook for eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas...

Current conditions with normal spring rainfall would result in a
near average flood potential this spring across eastern Oklahoma
and west central Arkansas and below average flood potential in the
upper White River Basin in northwest Arkansas. Flooding across
eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas usually
occurs in response to specific precipitation events. However, the
Arkansas River may flood in response to more widespread upstream
conditions. There are currently no indications of extreme
hydrologic conditions to alter the flood potential for most the
area.

For much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas,
precipitation, soil moisture content, and streamflow conditions
have been below average for the last 90 days. Much of the area has
seen less than 75 percent of the normal precipitation during this
period. Soil moisture is significantly below normal, with values
less than the 30th percentile, and some areas are extremely dry,
only in the 5th to 20th percentile.

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers projects in eastern Oklahoma are near
levels approximating design conditions. Available capacity in the
Arkansas system is approximately 105 percent of the designed
flood control storage. Available capacity in the Red River system
is approximately 110 percent of design flood control storage. The
upper White River system has over 100 percent of design flood
control storage available as well.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, stream and river
discharges in the upper White, lower Arkansas, and lower Red River
basins were below to much below normal for this time of year. The
upper Arkansas basin, including the Verdigris River basin, was
primarily at near normal streamflow conditions.

The February 16, 2017 Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Spring
Outlook (March-April-May) calls for an enhanced chance for above
normal temperatures and an equal chance for above, near, and below
median precipitation across all of eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas.

According to the February 28, 2017 U.S. Drought Monitor, all of
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas was experiencing Moderate
to Severe Drought. However, Extreme Drought conditions were
occurring across Crawford, Sebastian, and Franklin Counties in
west central Arkansas. The CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook valid
February 16-May 31, 2017 indicates drought will remain but
conditions could improve.

For the latest river stage information, forecasts, and warnings,
please visit our website at www.weather.gov/tulsa
River stage and forecast data can be obtained by selecting the
Rivers and Lakes link.


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