Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Southeast RFC

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FGUS62 KALR 181737
ESGALR

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
EASTERN REGION
NWS SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER ATLANTA, GA
136 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL POTENTIAL OF RIVER
FLOODING ACROSS MOST OF UPSTATE AND PIEDMONT REGIONS OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RISK
FOR THE RIVERS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH APRIL...

HISTORICALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...THE RIVER
FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF
RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN
EARLY TO MID MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION.

FOR SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA...STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING
NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...THOUGH MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE
PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE HINTS AT CONTINUED WET WEATHER THROUGH APRIL.
THEREFORE...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOODS AND
THE MAGNITUDE OF THOSE RIVER FLOODS TO BE CLOSE TO TYPICAL THROUGH
APRIL...OR CLIMATOLOGICALLY OBSERVED.  FOR THE COASTAL REGION
RIVERS...FLOOD RISK MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER COMPARED TO NORMAL
CONSIDERING CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...RECENT RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH APRIL.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS AS OF MARCH 17TH ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND UPSTATE NORTH CAROLINA.

PAST PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON
SERFC MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE UPSTATE REGIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTH CAROLINA. IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND PIEDMONT REGIONS OF NORTH
CAROLINA ESTIMATES ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

RESERVOIRS...MOST RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR THEIR TARGET POOLS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SNOW PACK...NO HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK AT THIS TIME.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS
INDICATE A CONTINUED WET WEATHER PATTERN.  THE LATEST CPC 8 TO 14
DAY OUTLOOK IS INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END
OF MARCH.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...BASED ON CPC LONG
LEAD OUTLOOK...ENSO IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. THE LATEST
CPC 3-MONTH OUTLOOK INDICATES MOSTLY EQUAL CHANCES AT ABOVE...BELOW
OR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH MAY.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES.  THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
IS UPDATED EVERY TWO TO THREE WEEKS.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE MENU.

DOBUR



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