Flash Flood Guidance
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000
AWUS01 KWNH 311133
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-311502-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0236
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
732 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN OK/EASTERN TX/WESTERN LA...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 311132Z - 311502Z

SUMMARY...A SLOW-MOVING SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
FOCUS FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH HOURLY RATES POSSIBLY IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES. CONVECTION REGENERATING ALONG THE RED RIVER HAS
BECOME A NEW FOCUS FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH WARNINGS BEING ISSUED
BY THE LOCAL WFOS. EXPECT THIS THREAT TO PERSIST THROUGH ~15Z.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A VERY SLOW MOVING
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE RED RIVER. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN
IGNITING IN THE VICINITY OF A WEST-EAST BOUNDARY WITH WITH
REGENERATION OCCURRING IN A REGION OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
BASED ON THE 11Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. RATHER IMPRESSIVE 850-MB
INFLOW WAS NOTED FROM THE KFWS WSR-88D WITH VAD WIND PROFILES
SHOWING 30 TO 35 KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE
STORM-SCALE ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO VEER AND DIMINISH
AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY CARRY
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TOWARD EAST-CENTRAL TX WITH THE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE.

THE 10Z HRRR THUS FAR HAS HANDLED THE ONGOING ACTIVITY THE BEST
WITH EVEN HINTS AT THE REGENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE RED
RIVER. IT AGREES WITH THE SCENARIO OF MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHEAST TX FOR 2 TO 3 MORE HOURS SO THIS MPD ISSUANCE
WILL ONLY BE ISSUED THROUGH 15Z AT THE LATEST.



RUBIN-OSTER

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33049749 33079764 33399788 33679782 33809760 33879744
            33989694 34049568 33939480 33199407 32459375 31789363
            31329380 30989420 31009513 31409580 32069616 32699680
            33049749


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