Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 300857
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
457 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...COLD FRONT ON THE WAY...

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE INCHING THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES TONIGHT WILL BUILD
ACROSS MICHIGAN EARLY TODAY...BUT WITH SHOWERS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THAT FRONT WILL
ARRIVE HERE EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW AS WELL AS WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DWINDLE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CHILLY AND DRY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-302030-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
457 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (470).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW
                    SHOWERS OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 3 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    INCREASING TO 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (330).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.13-0.22 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SNOW SHOWERS OR
                    RAIN UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW
                    AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....32-37.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    45 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1690).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 33 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.24 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-302030-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
457 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (410).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0200...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
                    0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST AROUND 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.20 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN RAIN AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400. SNOW AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    45 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1560).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 27 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 39 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.33 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-302030-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
457 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (740).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW
                    SHOWERS OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    INCREASING TO 40 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (450).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.20 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SNOW SHOWERS OR
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    55 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 36 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.24 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-302030-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
457 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........66-71 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (720).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW
                    SHOWERS OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (450).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.17 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SNOW SHOWERS OR RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    SNOW AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    45 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1940).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 30 TO 39 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.17-0.23 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-302030-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
457 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (720).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0200...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
                    0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (230).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.14 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN RAIN AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1400. SNOW AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1480).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 21 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 36 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.24 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 50.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS AROUND 50.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

AM





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