Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 292006
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
406 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

...CLOUDY AND COOL FOR TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING... BRINGING SHOWERS WITH IT.  CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-300815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
406 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    2000. PATCHY DRIZZLE. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AFTER 2000 UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (220).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). PERIODS OF DRIZZLE
                    UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 11 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 1 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (220).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AFTER
                    2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    DRIZZLE UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT...EXCEPT 83-88 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT WETTER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (470).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-300815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
406 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    2400. PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.22 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). PERIODS OF DRIZZLE
                    UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......22 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT...EXCEPT 89-94 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......30 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 16 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF DRIZZLE
                    AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    DRIZZLE UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-300815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
406 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    2000...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2400.
                    PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45...EXCEPT 47-52 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). PERIODS OF DRIZZLE
                    UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 11 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 2 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (330).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49...EXCEPT AROUND 51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (390).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-300815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
406 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2000...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY
                    DRIZZLE UNTIL 2400...THEN AREAS OF DRIZZLE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (260).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). PERIODS OF DRIZZLE
                    UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 2 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 2 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-300815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
406 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    2400...THEN AREAS OF DRIZZLE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.14 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). PERIODS OF DRIZZLE
                    UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......22 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (230).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF DRIZZLE
                    AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    DRIZZLE UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........69-74 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (440).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...COOLER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

AM





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