Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 292001
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE...

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEK WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE A
SLOW MODERATION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-300830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1100 UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73...EXCEPT 60-65 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (840).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54...EXCEPT 56-61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT...EXCEPT 59-64 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (930).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-300830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2300...THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50...EXCEPT 52-57 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1100 UNTIL 1400...THEN CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74...EXCEPT 60-65 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (850).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT WETTER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-300830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. ISOLATED
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 59-64 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 66-71 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (630).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53...EXCEPT 57-62 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST UP TO 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74...EXCEPT 60-65 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (930).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-300830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2300...THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (720).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-300830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN
                    ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1100 UNTIL 1400...THEN CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (870).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1250).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

BERGER





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