Suppression Forecast
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FNAK72 PAFC 281817
FWSALU

Spot Forecast for Egegik Flare...US Coast Guard
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1017 AM AKDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Forecast is based on incident time of 0900 AKDT on June 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
East to southeasterly flow with gusts between 10 to 20 mph
persists through this evening as a surface low nears Kodiak
island. Seas at the mouth of the river will be 1-2 ft through
tonight. Isolated showers are expected as weak shortwaves move
from east to west across Bristol Bay. A stronger shortwave moves
across Bristol Bay later tonight which will bring lower
visibilities and ceilings. Volcanic ash below 6 kft is not
expected to be significant. The Aviation Weather Unit advised that
ash concerns are most relevant above 30 kft. The ash cloud is
currently just south of the Alaska Peninsula and is expected to
take a trajectory to the northeast at elevations above 30 kft.



.TODAY...
TIME (AKDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........83  83  83  83  83  83  83  92  92
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........No TS expected
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  20  30  30
Temp............50  52  53  54  56  56  57  57  57
Surface wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E
Surface wnd spd.8   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   9
Surface wnd gst.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  20  20
Ceiling (kft)...SCT010 OVC020
Visibility (sm).P6SM

.TONIGHT...
TIME (AKDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........92  92  92  92  98  98  98  98  98  98  100 100
Weather cov.....CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........No TS expected
Chc of pcpn (%).30  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  30  30
Temp............57  56  55  54  53  52  50  49  49  48  48  48
Surface wnd dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   N   N
Surface wnd spd.9   9   9   9   6   6   6   3   3   3   5   5
Surface wnd gst.20  15  15  15  10  10  10  5   5   5
Freezing spray.. None.
Ceiling (kft)...SCT010 OVC020
Visibility (sm).P6SM

.THURSDAY...
TIME (AKDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........100 100 100 100 98  98  98  98  98  98  98  98
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........ No TS expected.
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  30  30  20  20  20  20  20  20  40  40
Surface wnd dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW
Surface wnd spd.5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7
Surface wnd gst.                10  10  10              10  10
Ceiling (kft)...SCT010 OVC020
Visibility (sm).P6SM

$$
Forecaster...Hoeppner
Requested by...LT Phil Ortega
Type of request...SAR
.TAG 1711789.0/ALU
.EMAIL phillip.n.ortega@uscg.mil



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