Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
000
FNUS73 KAPX 031012
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR LOUD CREEK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
612 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A SUNNY AND COLD START TO THE DAY...CLOUDS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BOOST
AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH MICHIGAN...
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........54 AT IGNITION...MAX 67.
RH..................46 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 3 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 2 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 16 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10800 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (400) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1900).

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........11  14  25  46  57  61  69  73
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............54  60  63  64  65  66  66  65
RH..............46  36  32  30  30  30  31  32
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..3   4   5   5   6   6   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.5   10  10  10  15  15  15  15
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISP......400 800 110013001500170018001900

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 43.
RH..................MAX 90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 24 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 13
                    TO 14 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1800-3500 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........MIN 3.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN FAIR(200).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........76  82  85  86  89  90  91  93  94  95  96  97
WEATHER COV.....        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............64  61  59  57  54  52  50  49  48  46  45  44
RH..............34  37  40  46  52  59  65  71  77  82  86  89
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..7   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  10  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SMOKE DISP......18001900170016001200900 600 500 400 400 300 200

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 50.
RH..................MIN 65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 14 TO 21 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000-4200 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(900).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........97     96     97     97     97     98
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............44     45     47     49     50     50
RH..............90     89     88     82     73     68
20 FT WIND......NW 5   NW 6   N 6    N 6    N 7    N 7
20 FT WIND GUST.10     15     15     15     15     15
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      3      4      4
SMOKE DISP......300    400    600    700    800    900

$$
FORECASTER...MONIQUE RUNYAN
REQUESTED BY...PERSEPHONE WHELAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160503.LOUDC.01/APX



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.