Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FNUS71 KBGM 241047
FWSBGM

Spot Forecast for ,COWGILL RX BURN...Pa DCNR
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
647 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on April 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure is moving off the New England coast, yet it will
still manage to keep dry and warm conditions going for the burn
area today, with variable light wind becoming east to southeast.
However, a system approaching from the south will start to
thicken clouds especially this afternoon through evening. Late
tonight through especially Tuesday, the system will likely bring a
wetting rain to the burn area.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds...becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph
                    late in the morning.
Mixing height.......0-1800 ft AGL...increasing to 1900-3100 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Transport winds.....North around 0 mph...becoming east 2 to 10 mph
                    early in the morning.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.
SUNSET..............

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........38  41  47  52  58  63  68  74  78  82  86
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............42  45  49  53  57  60  62  64  65  65  65
RH..............79  73  68  59  48  42  37  32  30  29  28
20 FT wind dir..NW  N   N   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..0   0   1   3   4   5   5   5   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.            5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.6 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.4 1.9
Transp wind dir.N   NE  NE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  E
Transp wind spd.0   2   5   6   8   9   10  10  9   8   7
Haines index....2   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). A slight chance of
                    showers after midnight. A chance of showers
                    late.
CWR.................0 percent...increasing to 43 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......East winds 7 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......200-1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 3 to 10 mph...increasing to 13 to 18 mph
                    after midnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
SUNRISE.............

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........87  88  89  90  91  91  91  92  92  92  93  93
Weather cov.....                                SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   20  30  40  40
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............63  61  58  56  53  52  50  49  47  46  45  44
RH..............30  35  40  43  48  50  56  58  65  71  79  82
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   8   8
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.5   3   3   5   6   8   10  13  15  16  17  18
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). A chance of showers
                    early in the morning...then rain.
CWR.................59 percent...increasing to 80 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 52.
Min humidity........74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......East winds 12 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......1000-1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 18 to 21 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
SUNSET..............

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........94        97        97        98
Weather cov.....CHANCE    LIKELY    LIKELY    DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RAIN      RAIN      RAIN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............50        60        70        80
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............44        46        50        52
RH..............86        79        77        77
20 FT wind......E 9G15    E 10G15   E 10G15   E 9G15
Mix hgt (ft)....1100      1300      1200      1100
Transport wind..E 20      E 21      E 20      E 18
Haines index....3         3         2         2

$$
Forecaster...Pellerito
Requested by...SHAWN TURNER
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707624.0/BGM
.EMAIL shturner@pa.gov



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