Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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Spot Forecast for Sawatski East...USFWS
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
341 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on October 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Expect southwest wind around 10 mph at the Sawatski East
burn site at sunrise Thursday. Wind gusts will generally be contained
around 15 mph or less, but occasional gusts up to 20 mph will be possible
mainly between noon and 6pm. Conditions will otherwise be well-mixed with
RH falling below 60 percent after noon.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Temperature.........60 at ignition...Max 67.
RH..................70 percent at ignition...Min 34 percent.
Eye level winds.....West winds 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 400-1700 ft
                    AGL increasing to 2400-4100 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 18 mph increasing to 18 to 22 mph
                    late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /300 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...excellent
                    /70000 knot-ft/.

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)..........29  21  14  6   5   3   2
Weather cov......
Weather type.....
Tstm cov.........
Temp.............60  62  64  66  66  67  67
RH...............70  60  51  44  40  36  34
Eye lvl wnd dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Eye lvl wnd spd..7   7   8   8   8   7   7
Eye lvl wnd gst..15  20  20  20  20  20  15
Mix hgt (kft)....1.7 2.4 3.0 3.6 4.0 4.1 3.8
Transp wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd..22  22  22  21  21  21  18
VRate kt-ft/1000.30  50  60  60  70  70  60

$$
Forecaster...Clark
Requested by...Paul Charland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717487.0/DTX
.EMAIL paul_charland@fws.gov



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