Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FNUS75 KGJT 242313
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Payan...BIA
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
513 PM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1700 MDT on July 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

***FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT***

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms tonight are expected to begin shortly
and are likely to bring wetting rains to the Payan fire on and off through
about 2200 tonight. The next best likelihood for moderate to
heavy showers and thunderstorms will be on Tuesday afternoon with
rainfall amounts in excess of one inch possible if a strong
thunderstorm passes over the fire site.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80%). Scattered showers and
                    thunderstorms in the evening. Isolated
                    thunderstorms after midnight.
Min temperature.....57-62 F.
Max humidity........77-82%.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 4 to 6 mph becoming northeast
                    3 to 5 MPH after 2300. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2000-23000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 very low.
LAL.................4.
Mixing height.......7600 ft AGL, decreasing to 500 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80%). Scattered showers and
                    isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then
                    numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Max temperature.....76-81 F.
Min humidity........42-47%.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds in the morning 3 to 5 MPH,
                    becoming southwest in the afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10000 knot-ft), increasing to good by 1400.
Haines Index........2 very low.
LAL.................4.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL, increasing to 7400 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70%). Scattered showers and
                    thunderstorms in the evening, then isolated
                    showers after midnight.
Min temperature.....56-61 F.
Max humidity........80-85%.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 3 to 5 mph becoming northeast
                    3 to 5 MPH after 2300. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Good, decreasing to poor (2000-5000 knot-ft)
                    after 1900.
Haines Index........2 very low.
LAL.................4.
Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL, decreasing to 400 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....West 10 MPH.

$$
Forecaster...Julie Malingowski
Requested by...Joe Morris
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1713226.1/GJT
.EMAIL durangodispatch@gmail.com


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