Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FNUS75 KGJT 270025
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SUEG ADMIN PILE...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
525 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MST ON JANUARY 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE
AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS
IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY NOON. THERE
IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS, BUT
MOST LIKELY ONLY VIRGA WILL BE SEEN ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VIRGA RIGHT AROUND NOON.

BETTER SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW THE CLEARING INDEX TO
INCREASE ABOVE 500 FOR ACCEPTABLE SMOKE DISPERSAL. AS SOON AS THE
SUN GOES DOWN THE CLEARING INDEX WILL DROP BELOW 500 AGAIN.

AFTER THE DISTURBANCE PASSES, WINDS ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WINDS ALOFT WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN BUT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-90%) UNTIL ABOUT 1100, THEN
                    BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS OR VIRGA BETWEEN 100O AND 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 3-7 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    TO ABOUT 15 MPH NEAR VIRGA AND SHOWERS.
CLEARING INDEX......100 UNTIL ABOUT 1100 THEN INCREASING TO 400.
                    BETWEEN 1200 AND 1600 C.I. BETWEEN 550 AND 600.
                    AFTER 1600 LOWERING RAPIDLY BELOW 500.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 4700 FT AGL ABOUT 1500.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....28-33 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5900 KNOT-FT).
CLEARING INDEX......400 DECREASING TO 50.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (44900 KNOT-FT).
CLEARING INDEX......50 INCREASING TO 100 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 400 EARLY ABOUT NOON. FROM 1300
                    TO ABOUT 1600 C.I. WILL BE 500 TO 550...THEN
                    QUICKLY DROP BELOW 500 AFTER 1600.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...ANOTHER STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER ABOUT 1400.
HIGHS TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 45-53.
LOW RH WILL BE AROUND 50%
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

$$
FORECASTER...CHRIS CUOCO
REQUESTED BY...ROBERT GRUBB
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150127.SUEGA.01/GJT


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