Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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878
FNUS72 KILM 221633
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Rocky Point RX...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service WILMINGTON NC
1233 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 EDT on March 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
Cooler and drier air builds in today as high pressure builds in
from the north. As this high moves more offshore over the weekend a
warmup will ensue. Minor rain chances are expected Sunday as a weak
upper disturbance passes well to our north.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is favorable.

Brotak Wind Profile Present

Fog potential for tonight....None.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy with late clearing (60-80 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....67.
Min humidity........35-40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 11 to 13 mph with gusts up to
                    25 mph.
Max Mixing Hgt......5200 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North 17 to 21 mph.
Max Vent Rate.......91655 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........1.
Max ADI.............57.

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........80  70  60  50  28
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............65  66  64  63  61
RH..............45  42  39  37  36
CHC Pcpn (%)....0   0   0   0   0
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..13  13  12  12  11
20 FT wind gust.25  25  25  25  20
Mix hgt (kft)...3.8 4.2 4.8 5.2 5.0
Trans Wnd Dir...N   N   N   N   N
Trans Wnd Spd...21  20  18  17  17
Haines Index....3   5   5   5   4
VR MPH-FT*1000..80  81  89  92  83
Stability.......D   D   D   D   D
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............57  54  55  55  51
Aparnt Tmp (F)..67  69  70  69  68
Sfc pres (in)...000 016 016 016 016

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 6 to 10 mph.
Min Mixing Hgt......100 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northeast 8 to 17 mph.
Min Vent Rate.......1150 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........2.
Min ADI.............5.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........26     23     16     15     20     17
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............65     57     52     49     47     44
RH..............41     48     51     51     50     51
CHC Pcpn (%)....0      0      0      0      0      0
20 ft wind......NE 10  NE 7   NE 8   NE 8   NE 7   NE 6
20 ft wind gust.20     15     15     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....3900   100    200    300    300    300
Transport wind..N 17   NE 9   NE 10  NE 10  NE 9   NE 8
Haines Index....4      4      4      3      4      4
VR MPH-FT*1000..65     1      2      3      3      2
Stability.......D      E      E      E      E      E
LVORI...........1      2      2      2      2      2
ADI.............46     6      7      7      6      6
Aparnt Tmp (F)..65     57     52     45     42     39
Sfc pres (in)...30.16  30.33  30.33  30.33  30.43  30.43

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 10 mph.
Max Mixing Hgt......4800 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 15 mph.
Max Vent Rate.......57039 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........3.
Max ADI.............45.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........21     33     26     25     28     23
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............40     39     47     54     57     59
RH..............56     55     41     32     31     31
CHC Pcpn (%)....0      0      0      0      0      0
20 ft wind......NE 6   NE 7   NE 9   NE 10  NE 9   E 9
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15     20     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....300    300    2600   4100   4500   4800
Transport wind..NE 8   NE 9   NE 14  E 14   E 10   E 10
Haines Index....4      4      4      4      4      4
VR MPH-FT*1000..2      2      36     57     46     48
Stability.......E      C      D      D      D      D
LVORI...........3      2      1      1      1      2
ADI.............5      7      36     45     30     28
Aparnt Tmp (F)..35     33     42     54     57     59
Sfc pres (in)...30.43  30.52  30.52  30.52  30.51  30.51

$$
Forecaster...III
Requested by...Katie Sauerbrey
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1704780.1/ILM
.EMAIL Katie.sauerbrey@tnc.org



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