Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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657
FNUS73 KILX 241438
FWSILX

Spot Forecast for Weinberg-King...IDNR
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
938 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on March 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (217) 732-4029 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Southwest winds of 15 to 20 mph will be gusting over 30 mph at
times today. Clear skies in the morning will begin giving way
to clouds as the afternoon progresses, as a line of showers and
thunderstorms begins to form over Iowa. While a few showers
can`t be ruled out mid to late afternoon, the bulk of the rain
will be holding off until evening.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers late
                    in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Temperature.........66 at ignition...Max 76.
RH..................56 percent at ignition...Min 39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds south at 13 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Southwest winds 12 to 16 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL at ignition...increasing to
                    3400 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 23 mph shifting to the west around
                    15 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /7100 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    (52200 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........12     33     68     66
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      10     10
Temp............66     73     76     75
RH..............56     43     39     41
20 ft wind......S 13   SW 16  SW 16  SW 13
20 ft wind gust.25     30     30     25
Mix hgt (ft)....400    2500   3400   2600
Transport wind..S 18   S 28   SW 30  SW 23
Haines index....5      5      5      4
VRate kt-ft/10007      59     88     52
SDspl kt-ft/10007      59     88     52

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers and chance
                    of thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Temperature.........Min 56.
RH..................Max 96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southeast winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......200-1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 0 to 7 mph shifting to the southeast
                    late in the evening, then increasing to 7
                    to 15 mph after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (0-14800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........81     96     95     96     96     94
Weather cov.....CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........       CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).50     70     80     90     80     80
Temp............69     64     60     58     57     56
RH..............57     73     87     93     96     96
20 ft wind......SW 8   S 6    S 6    SE 7   SE 7   SE 7
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   400    200    900    1100   700
Transport wind..NW 7   N 0    E 3    S 13   S 14   SE 8
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/10008      0      1      10     13     5
SDspl kt-ft/10008      0      1      10     13     5

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers and a
                    chance of thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Temperature.........Max 66.
RH..................Min 68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southeast winds 7 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......600-1400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 6 mph shifting to the northeast 6 to
                    14 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3000 knot-ft).
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........95     93     90     93     93     91
Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).70     70     70     70     80     80
Temp............56     56     59     64     66     64
RH..............96     96     90     75     70     73
20 ft wind......SE 7   SE 7   SE 8   SE 8   SE 8   SE 7
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....600    900    1400   1300   1100   1000
Transport wind..SE 6   S 5    SW 3   E 6    NE 9   NE 13
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/10003      4      4      7      9      11
SDspl kt-ft/10003      4      4      7      9      11

$$
Forecaster...Geelhart
Requested by...Ray Geroff
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705145.0/ILX
.EMAIL Ray.geroff@illinois.gov



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