Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FNUS72 KMHX 281247
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for C 29 Pringle Rd...USFS
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
747 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EST on February 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure offshore will circulate warm air across North
Carolina through Wednesday. Winds will become south and increase
this afternoon as pressure gradient tightens. A cold front will
cross the region early Thursday morning. High pressure will
then build in behind the front through the weekend.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers this
                    morning and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming south 5 to 10 mph. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......Max 4100 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 mph this morning...becoming south 18
                    mph late.
Vent Rate...........Max 73800 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 9.
ADI.................Max 70.
Haines index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.20 to 30.30 inHg.

TIME (EST)         8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)............64  57  53  54  55  55  56  59  60  61
Weather cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.......RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov...........                    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp...............61  63  66  69  72  74  75  75  75  73
RH.................90  90  84  76  66  62  60  62  64  68
20 FT wind dir.....S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd.....4   5   5   6   7   8   9   8   8   7
20 FT wind gust....5           10  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)......0.7 1.1 1.6 2.4 3.3 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.0
Transp wind dir....S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S
Transp wind spd....7   8   9   10  12  13  15  17  18  16
LVORI..............9   5   3   3   3   1   1   1   1   1
ADI................5   11  19  29  39  49  43  67  70  53
Haines index.......3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1000..5   9   15  25  38  52  60  68  70  48
Stability class....F   E   E   E   C   C   C   C   C   C

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......Min 300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 18 mph...increasing to around
                    20 mph late.
Vent Rate...........Min 4024 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 5.
ADI.................Min 9.
Haines index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.08 to 30.21 inHg.

TIME (EST)         6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)............64  65  67  70  72  73  73  73  73  74  74  72
Weather cov........SCH
Weather type.......RW
Tstm cov...........SCH
Temp...............71  69  68  67  66  65  65  64  64  63  63  62
RH.................76  81  81  84  84  87  90  93  93  97  100 100
20 FT wind dir.....S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd.....7   7   7   7   8   8   8   8   9   9   10  10
20 FT wind gust....15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)......2.1 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir....S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd....13  10  12  14  16  17  18  18  18  20  20  20
LVORI..............3   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
ADI................17  9   10  12  14  15  16  16  17  17  18  18
Haines index.......5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1000..27  13  11  8   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
Stability class....C   C   C   C   C   C   E   E   D   D   D   D

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 12 to 17 mph. Gusts up to 30
                    mph.
Mixing height.......Max 3300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 21 to 30 mph...increasing to 31 to 32
                    mph late.
Vent Rate...........Max 93955 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 5.
ADI.................Max 87.
Haines index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.91 to 30.08 inHg.

TIME (EST)         6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%)............68     64     55     54     52     50
Weather cov........
Weather type.......NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............62     64     71     74     76     75
RH.................100    93     77     72     69     68
20 ft wind.........SW 10  SW 11  SW 14  SW 15  SW 16  SW 16
20 ft wind gust....15     20     30     30     30     30
Mix hgt (ft).......300    700    1700   2700   3000   2500
Transport wind.....SW 21  SW 24  SW 29  SW 29  SW 30  SW 32
LVORI..............5      4      3      3      1      1
ADI................23     32     65     76     83     87
Haines index.......4      4      3      3      3      3
VRate mph-ft/1000..5      17     48     79     90     81
Stability class....D      D      D      D      D      D

$$
Forecaster...Merrell
Requested by...David Nelson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702961.1/MHX
.EMAIL davidnelson@fs.fed.us


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