898
FNUS72 KMLB 060928
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for JDSP E14 C2/3/4...Florida Park Service
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
528 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on May 06.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure extending along the eastern seaboard to Florida
remains in control of local conditions. Winds SE 5-10 mph this
morning back to the ESE-E and increase to 10-15 mph with gusts to
20 mph by 11 AM as the sea breeze quickly develops and pushes
inland. An isolated onshore moving shower will be possible until
around 2 PM, and there`s a slight chance for showers to develop
in the vicinity of sea breeze between around 11 AM and 2 PM. A
lightning storm developing west of the burn site along the sea
breeze can`t be ruled out, but chances are very low. Dry
conditions expected after 2 PM as convection pushes inland.

Afternoon high in the M80s and peak heat index in the U80s. Min RH
50-60 pct due to a tight gradient near the coast. Smoke
dispersion Generally to Very Good.



.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers in the morning and early afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5-10 mph shifting to the east-
southeast 10-15 mph in the late morning.
Mixing height.......500-1800 ft AGL increasing to 2800-4100 ft AGL
in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 13 mph.
Dispersion index....Increasing to 47.
LVORI...............Decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........30  31  29  30  28  28  26  26  24  24  21  21
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............72  72  75  79  81  83  84  84  84  84  84  83
RH..............81  81  76  67  63  59  57  57  57  57  57  59
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8   9   10  12  12  13  13  13  13  13
20 FT wind gust.13  12  12  13  13  14  15  17  20  18  17  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.3
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.12  12  12  12  12  12  12  13  13  13  13  13
Dispersion idx..7   7   26  51  51  42  43  46  46  45  44  43
LVORI...........4   4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 71.
Max humidity........87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East-southeast winds 10-15 mph shifting to the
southeast and decreasing to 5-10 mph late.
Mixing height.......2000-3200 ft AGL decreasing to 400-600 ft AGL
in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 13 mph shifting to the south
                    around 5-10 mph after 3 am.
Dispersion index....Decreasing to 7 early in the evening.
LVORI...............Increasing to 5.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........23     27     25     26     34     31
Weather cov.....                     S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     20     20     20
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............82     78     75     74     73     72
RH..............61     69     76     79     81     84
20 ft wind......E 12   SE 10  SE 9   SE 8   SE 8   S 6
20 ft wind gust.16     15     14     13     10     9
Mix hgt (ft)....3200   2000   400    600    500    500
Transport wind..E 13   E 14   SE 14  SE 12  SE 9   S 7
Dispersion idx..42     10     9      8      6      4
LVORI...........1      3      4      4      4      5

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    early in the morning. Slight chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5-10 mph shifting to the southeast
and increasing to around 10 mph. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL increasing to 3200-3900 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 12 mph.
Dispersion index....Increasing to 42.
LVORI...............Decreasing to 2.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........28        26        25        16
Weather cov.....S CHC                         S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR    NONE      NONE      RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                              S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).20        10        10        20
LAL.............1         1         1         2
Temp............71        78        85        86
RH..............87        71        59        57
20 FT wind......S 6G8     SE 7      SE 9      SE 10G14
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1900      3800      3200
Transport wind..S 7       S 7       SE 9      E 10
Dispersion idx..3         17        41        44
LVORI...........5         3         1         1

$$
Forecaster...Haley
Requested by...Rob Rossmanith
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413199.0/MLB
.DELDT 05/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL robin.rossmanith@floridadep.gov