Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FNUS73 KMPX 261158
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Lake Johanna...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
658 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...West winds will prevail today, increasing up to 11
mph this afternoon. No rain is expected. RH will fall to 35 to 40
percent.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Temperature.........62 at ignition...Max 74.
RH..................69 percent at ignition...Min 37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 7 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 6 to 11 mph.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3500-4500
                    ft AGL increasing to 5500-6800 ft AGL late in
                    the morning.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 21 mph.
Mixing winds........West 15 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /45100 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /82800 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (104800 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
Temp............62  66  69  72  73  74  74  74  73
RH..............69  59  51  45  41  39  37  38  39
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..7   8   9   10  10  11  11  10  10
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  20  20  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8
Transp wind dir.SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.15  16  17  18  20  20  21  21  20
Mixing wind dir.SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Mixing wind spd.15  16  17  18  20  20  21  21  20
Haines index....5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100045  63  83  105 112 113 120 121 115

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
Temperature.........Min 51.
RH..................Max 77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 9 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......5700-6800 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 20 mph decreasing to 6 to 10 mph in
                    the late evening and overnight.
Mixing winds........West 13 to 20 mph decreasing to 6 to 10 mph in
                    the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (85600 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (1300 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Temp............71     63     57     55     53     51
RH..............40     56     69     73     71     76
20 ft wind......W 9    W 6    W 4    NW 3   NW 3   NW 3
20 ft wind gust.15     10     5      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....6800   4600   2400   300    300    300
Transport wind..W 20   W 15   NW 10  NW 7   NW 6   W 6
Mixing wind.....W 20   W 15   NW 10  NW 7   NW 6   W 6
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/1000116    60     22     2      1      1

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers in
                    the morning. Chance of showers 20 percent.
Temperature.........Max 71.
RH..................Min 39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 7 mph early in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......300-1500 ft AGL increasing to 7400-7500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 16 mph.
Mixing winds........West 7 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (1500-50700 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (69000 knot-ft) late in the morning.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to or moderate.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Temp............53     58     64     67     70     71
RH..............74     67     56     47     41     39
20 ft wind......W 3    W 5    W 6    W 6    W 7    W 7
20 ft wind gust.5                    10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....300    2700   5100   7500   7400   7400
Transport wind..W 7    W 9    W 12   W 14   W 15   W 16
Mixing wind.....W 7    W 9    W 12   W 14   W 15   W 16
Haines index....4      4      3      3      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/10002      21     51     90     97     104

$$
Forecaster...BORGHOFF
Requested by...Matt Graeve
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1710114.0/MPX
.EMAIL mgraeve@tnc.org



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