Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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932
FNUS73 KOAX 230931
FWSOAX

Spot Forecast for Farm Creek PWA...Pottawattamie County Conservation Board
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
431 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CDT on March 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Mostly cloudy conditions are expected through the morning with a
few scattered showers or drizzle likely. Some clearing, especially
across southeast Nebraska is expected by afternoon which will
increase temperatures. Very low fire danger is expected through
much of the day but may increase slightly for a few hours as the
clearing moves in this afternoon. Otherwise, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible later this evening with much cooler and
soggy conditions anticipated for Friday.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and patchy drizzle in the morning.
                    Slight chance of rain showers and isolated
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 12 to 16 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    increasing to 30 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1300-2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 30 to 38 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (34500-65800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........99     99     99     86     79     77
Weather cov.....       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC         S CHC
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                                   ISOLTD
Temp............42     45     49     55     61     66
RH..............67     72     71     65     60     56
20 ft wind......SE 12  SE 14  SE 15  S 16   S 16   S 16
20 ft wind gust.20     25     30     30     30     30
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   1500   1600   2000   2000   1700
Transport wind..S 30   S 32   S 35   S 37   S 38   S 36
Haines index....2      2      2      3      2      2
SDspl kt-ft/100035     40     49     63     66     53

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 14 mph with gusts to around
                    30 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......100-1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 21 to 30 mph decreasing to around 20 mph
                    early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (0-28100 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Sky (%).........80     77     77     77     83     87
Weather cov.....       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........       S CHC  S CHC  ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Temp............67     63     60     60     60     58
RH..............54     59     66     69     73     78
20 ft wind......S 14   S 12   S 12   S 13   S 12   S 11
20 ft wind gust.25     20     25     30     25     20
Mix hgt (ft)....1100   500    200    300    300    100
Transport wind..S 30   S 29   S 29   S 26   S 24   S 21
Haines index....2      2      3      4      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100028     11     5      6      5      1

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers likely and
                    isolated thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......300-1700 ft AGL increasing to 2500-3500 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 20 to 26 mph increasing to 21 to 30 mph
                    in the late morning and early afternoon, then
                    decreasing to 13 to 17 mph late in the
                    afternoon shifting to the southeast around 7
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (4400-44100 knot-ft) increasing to
                    good to excellent (37500-76500 knot-ft) in the
                    late morning and afternoon, then decreasing to
                    fair (21200 knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........91     94     91     80     81     83
Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Temp............56     57     61     65     67     66
RH..............83     79     72     65     59     59
20 ft wind......S 10   S 9    S 9    S 9    SE 9   SE 8
20 ft wind gust.20     15     15     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....300    1700   2900   3400   3500   3200
Transport wind..S 20   S 26   S 30   S 25   S 21   S 13
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/10004      44     73     75     63     38

$$
Forecaster...Kern
Requested by...chad graeve
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1704986.0/OAX
.EMAIL chad.graeve@pottcounty-ia.gov



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