Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FNUS73 KOAX 211413
FWSOAX

Spot Forecast for weber...individual
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
913 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on October 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

After a break in weather this morning, chances for showers
and thunderstorms will return for a window of a couple of
hours in the early to mid afternoon. The timing will coincide
with a wind shift from southwesterly to northwesterly winds.
Winds ahead of the front will remain gusty, at around 15 to 25
mph with gusts to 25 to 35 mph. Behind the front, northwest
winds will be gusty initially, at around 15 mph with gusts to
around 25 mph, but speeds will slacken close to sunset or later
tonight. Quiet weather will follow the front for the rest of
tonight through Sunday and beyond, with light winds on Sunday
morning increasing to around 15 to 20 mph from the west to
southwest in the afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon. A chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms early in the afternoon, then a
                    slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    early in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 12 to 13 mph, becoming
                    northwest 11 to 12 mph late. Gusts up to 25
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1800-3300 ft AGL, increasing to 3900 ft AGL
                    late.
Transport winds.....South 30 to 39 mph, becoming southwest around
                    29 mph early in the afternoon, then becoming
                    northwest 29 to 31 mph late.
Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (45100-87300 knot-ft),
                    increasing to excellent (104600 knot-ft) late.
GFDI (max)..........Moderate.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........81     83     80     73
Weather cov.....       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Temp............69     69     69     64
RH..............78     71     57     54
20 ft wind......S 13   S 12   SW 12  NW 12
20 ft wind gust.25     25     20     20
Mix hgt (ft)....2500   2000   2100   3300
Transport wind..S 39   S 32   SW 29  NW 30
GFDI............4      3      3      3
Haines index....3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100087     58     53     87

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent), then becoming
                    partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph in the evening,
                    becoming light and variable.
Mixing height.......3200-4300 ft AGL, decreasing to 100-1700 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (83100 knot-ft), decreasing to poor
                    to good (0-41800 knot-ft) in the late evening
                    and overnight.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........63     52     34     34     29     14
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............61     55     51     48     46     43
RH..............53     61     66     68     68     73
20 ft wind......NW 10  NW 8   NW 6   NW 5   NW 4   NW 4
20 ft wind gust.15     10     10            5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....4300   3200   500    100    200    300
Haines index....2      3      5      4      4      5
SDspl kt-ft/1000116    83     7      0      2      2

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds, becoming southwest 5
                    to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-100 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........12     5      1      1      1      1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............40     43     51     61     68     69
RH..............76     70     56     38     27     25
20 ft wind......NW 4   W 4    W 4    W 4    W 6    W 7
20 ft wind gust.5      5      5      5             10
Mix hgt (ft)....100    BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100
Haines index....3      2      2      2      2      2
SDspl kt-ft/10001      0      0      0      0      0

$$
Forecaster...Mayes
Requested by...greg weber
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717649.0/OAX


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