Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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704
FNUS75 KRIW 061341
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR S COTTONWOOD RX...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
741 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 MDT ON MAY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
BURN AREA.  LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN UTAH...WILL MOVE NORTH AND INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOCAL HEAVY RAIN...HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING WHEN
RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 9000 FEET.  THE HAIL MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE
TO 3 OR 4 INCHES.  THIS WILL ALL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...C.BAKER

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN MIXED
                    WITH SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
                    WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
                    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1000 AM MDT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-59.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-43 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING EAST 10 TO 13
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1000...THEN 4.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.70 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5800 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 20 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (6500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (95200
                    KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN WIDESPREAD
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-37.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH...THEN
                    BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO 15
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST EARLY IN THE MORNING.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100...THEN 5 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.80 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST AROUND 13 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (6600-31800 KNOT-FT).

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-53.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-47 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO
                    THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.75 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5900 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 14 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (4000-49200 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH.
.TUESDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...C.BAKER
REQUESTED BY...GERRY TUZON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160506.SCOTT.01/RIW



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