Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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563
FNUS71 KRNK 292039
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH FIRE...U.S. FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
339 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1600 EST ON NOVEMBER 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THIS EVENING WILL BRING A LULL IN
ACTIVITY ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO RETURN AFTER
SUNSET AND BEFORE CLOUDS RETURN OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO 15 OR 20 MPH
BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AFTER DARK. NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS LATE. HOWEVER THINKING RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND PERHAPS ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS LIKELY TO RETURN ON THE RIDGES
TOWARD DAYBREAK ALTHOUGH OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ELSEWHERE
OVERNIGHT.

WET DAY IN STORE ON WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE SLIDES NORTH ALONG A
COLD FRONT WITH THIS BOUNDARY PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY EVENING. APPEARS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH GUSTS
TO 20 OR 30 MPH WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS. ADDED
RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE HALF TO AN INCH LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH BY THURSDAY RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING
AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN MOIST UNDER
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WITH A FEW ADDED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY.


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). A CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.
MAX HUMIDITY........99 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH
                    LATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 3 TO 7 MPH.
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................3.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........35  30  37  43  50  56  63  69  79  83  87  90
WEATHER COV.....                            SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0   0   0   10  10  10  10  20  20  30  40  50
TEMP............58  56  55  54  53  52  51  51  51  51  51  51
RH..............75  75  78  82  86  89  91  92  95  96  96  97
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..3   5   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   4   5
20 FT WIND GUST.5   10  10      5   5   5   5   5   5   15  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
MIXNG WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE
MIXNG WIND SPD..7   6   6   5   5   5   3   3   3   3   5   7
LVORI...........3   3   4   5   5   6   7   7   8   8   8   9
ADI.............3   3   2   3   3   3   2   1   1   2   3   4
HAINES INDEX....3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS. ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......50 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 90 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.
MIN HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
                    MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2800 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 1300 FT
                    AGL LATE.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 8 TO 12 MPH...INCREASING TO 20 TO 29 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 28 TO
                    33 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH LATE.
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................12...INCREASING TO 33 LATE IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 58 EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 78 EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 55...DECREASING TO 29
                    LATE...DECREASING TO 16.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........93     97     100    100    99     95
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........
CWR.............50     60     70     80     80     90
TEMP............51     55     59     62     61     58
RH..............99     92     86     83     85     89
20 FT WIND......S 6    S 9    S 10   S 11   S 10   SW 9
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     20     20     20     15
MIX HGT (FT)....300    500    1000   2200   2100   700
MIXING WIND......S 8    S 10   S 12   S 29   S 28   SW 12
LVORI...........8      5      4      4      4      5
ADI.............9      11     14     58     55     12
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      3      3      3

$$
FORECASTER...HUDGINS
REQUESTED BY...ANN GLIDDEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1603742.0/RNK



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